The main focus of Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) is studying how large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) can be more efficiently solved when addressed in a modular way, by combining partial solutions computed for smaller subtasks. Despite their very intuitive role for learning, most notions of MDP abstractions proposed in the HRL literature have limited expressive power or do not possess formal efficiency guarantees. This work addresses these fundamental issues by defining Realizable Abstractions, a new relation between generic low-level MDPs and their associated high-level decision processes. The notion we propose avoids non-Markovianity issues and has desirable near-optimality guarantees. Indeed, we show that any abstract policy for Realizable Abstractions can be translated into near-optimal policies for the low-level MDP, through a suitable composition of options. As demonstrated in the paper, these options can be expressed as solutions of specific constrained MDPs. Based on these findings, we propose RARL, a new HRL algorithm that returns compositional and near-optimal low-level policies, taking advantage of the Realizable Abstraction given in the input. We show that RARL is Probably Approximately Correct, it converges in a polynomial number of samples, and it is robust to inaccuracies in the abstraction.

Across diverse domains--from complex systems and finance to high-energy physics and astrophysics--scientific inquiry often relies on deriving theoretical parameters from observational data [1]. At the core of this challenge lies the inverse problem: inferring the posterior distribution of theoretical parameters given a set of observables [2]. Traditional approaches for posterior estimation rely on sampling algorithms such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [3, 4] and Nested Sampling (NS) [5]. In astrophysics and cosmology, implementations like emcee [6] and dynesty [7] have become standard tools. While these frameworks are statistically robust, they suffer significantly from the curse of dimensionality. In real-world scenarios, where the parameter space is high-dimensional and the likelihood function relies on computationally expensive simulators (e.g., in particle physics phenomenology [8]), convergence can take weeks or even months. Recent advances in machine learning have introduced Normalizing Flows (NFs) as a powerful alternative for probabilistic modelling [9, 10]. By learning a bijective mapping between a simple base distribution (e.g., a Gaussian) and the complex target distribution, NFs allow for exact density estimation and efficient sampling [11] from the target distribution. Modern architectures, such as RealNVP [12] and Neural Spline Flows [13], offer enough expressivity to model highly complex distributions.

Discovering the neural mechanisms underpinning cognition is one of the grand challenges of neuroscience. However, previous approaches for building models of RNN dynamics that explain behaviour required iterative refinement of architectures and/or optimisation objectives, resulting in a piecemeal, and mostly heuristic, human-in-the-loop process. Here, we offer an alternative approach that automates the discovery of viable RNN mechanisms by explicitly training RNNs to reproduce behaviour, including the same characteristic errors and suboptimalities, that humans and animals produce in a cognitive task. Achieving this required two main innovations. First, as the amount of behavioural data that can be collected in experiments is often too limited to train RNNs, we use a non-parametric generative model of behavioural responses to produce surrogate data for training RNNs. Second, to capture all relevant statistical aspects of the data, we developed a novel diffusion model-based approach for training RNNs. To showcase the potential of our approach, we chose a visual working memory task as our test-bed, as behaviour in this task is well known to produce response distributions that are patently multimodal (due to swap errors). The resulting network dynamics correctly qualitative features of macaque neural data. Importantly, these results were not possible to obtain with more traditional approaches, i.e., when only a limited set of behavioural signatures (rather than the full richness of behavioural response distributions) were fitted, or when RNNs were trained for task optimality (instead of reproducing behaviour). Our approach also yields novel predictions about the mechanism of swap errors, which can be readily tested in experiments. These results suggest that fitting RNNs to rich patterns of behaviour provides a powerful way to automatically discover mechanisms of important cognitive functions.

Score matching estimators have garnered significant attention in recent years because they eliminate the need to compute normalizing constants, thereby mitigating the computational challenges associated with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE).While several studies have proposed score matching estimators for point processes, this work highlights the limitations of these existing methods, which stem primarily from the lack of a mathematically rigorous analysis of how score matching behaves on finite point processes -- special random configurations on bounded spaces where many of the usual assumptions and properties of score matching no longer hold. To this end, we develop a formal framework for score matching on finite point processes via Janossy measures and, within this framework, introduce an (autoregressive) weighted score-matching estimator, whose statistical properties we analyze in classical parametric settings. For general nonparametric (e.g., deep) point process models, we show that score matching alone does not uniquely identify the ground-truth distribution due to subtle normalization issues, and we propose a simple survival-classification augmentation that yields a complete, integration-free training objective for any intensity-based point process model for spatio-temporal case. Experiments on synthetic and real-world temporal and spatio-temporal datasets, demonstrate that our method accurately recovers intensities and achieves performance comparable to MLE with better efficiency.

We introduce a unified mathematical and probabilistic framework for understanding and comparing diverse AI agent strategies. We bridge the gap between high-level agent design concepts, such as ReAct, multi-agent systems, and control flows, and a rigorous mathematical formulation. Our approach frames agentic processes as a chain of probabilities, enabling a detailed analysis of how different strategies manipulate these probabilities to achieve desired outcomes. Our framework provides a common language for discussing the trade-offs inherent in various agent architectures. One of our many key contributions is the introduction of the "Degrees of Freedom" concept, which intuitively differentiates the optimizable levers available for each approach, thereby guiding the selection of appropriate strategies for specific tasks. This work aims to enhance the clarity and precision in designing and evaluating AI agents, offering insights into maximizing the probability of successful actions within complex agentic systems.

The repetition problem, where Large Language Models (LLMs) continuously generate repetitive content without proper termination, poses a critical challenge in production deployments, causing severe performance degradation and system stalling. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation and multiple practical solutions for the repetition problem encountered in real-world batch code interpretation tasks. We identify three distinct repetition patterns: (1) business rule generation repetition, (2) method call relationship analysis repetition, and (3) PlantUML diagram syntax generation repetition. Through rigorous theoretical analysis based on Markov models, we establish that the root cause lies in greedy decoding's inability to escape repetitive loops, exacerbated by self-reinforcement effects. Our comprehensive experimental evaluation demonstrates three viable solutions: (1) Beam Search decoding with early_stopping=True serves as a universal post-hoc mechanism that effectively resolves all three repetition patterns; (2) presence_penalty hyperparameter provides an effective solution specifically for BadCase 1; and (3) Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) fine-tuning offers a universal model-level solution for all three BadCases. The primary value of this work lies in combining first-hand production experience with extensive experimental validation. Our main contributions include systematic theoretical analysis of repetition mechanisms, comprehensive evaluation of multiple solutions with task-specific applicability mapping, identification of early_stopping as the critical parameter for Beam Search effectiveness, and practical production-ready solutions validated in real deployment environments.

Contemporary DevSecOps pipelines have to deal with the evolution of security in an ever-continuously integrated and deployed environment. Existing methods,such as rule-based intrusion detection and static vulnerability scanning, are inadequate and unreceptive to changes in the system, causing longer response times and organization needs exposure to emerging attack vectors. In light of the previous constraints, we introduce AutoGuard to the DevSecOps ecosystem, a reinforcement learning (RL)-powered self-healing security framework built to pre-emptively protect DevSecOps environments. AutoGuard is a self-securing security environment that continuously observes pipeline activities for potential anomalies while preemptively remediating the environment. The model observes and reacts based on a policy that is continually learned dynamically over time. The RL agent improves each action over time through reward-based learning aimed at improving the agent's ability to prevent, detect and respond to a security incident in real-time. Testing using simulated ContinuousIntegration / Continuous Deployment (CI/CD) environments showed AutoGuard to successfully improve threat detection accuracy by 22%, reduce mean time torecovery (MTTR) for incidents by 38% and increase overall resilience to incidents as compared to traditional methods. Keywords- DevSecOps, Reinforcement Learning, Self- Healing Security, Continuous Integration, Automated Threat Mitigation

Real-world tasks and environments exhibit differences from the static datasets that large language models (LLMs) are typically evaluated on. Such tasks can involve sequential interaction, requiring coherent updating of beliefs in light of new evidence, and making appropriate decisions based on those beliefs. Predicting how LLMs will perform in such dynamic environments is important, but can be tricky to determine from measurements in static settings. In this work, we examine two critical components of LLM performance: the ability of LLMs to coherently update their beliefs, and the extent to which the actions they take are consistent with those beliefs. First, we find that LLMs are largely inconsistent in how they update their beliefs; models can exhibit up to a 30% average difference between the directly elicited posterior, and the correct update of their prior. Second, we find that LLMs also often take actions which are inconsistent with the beliefs they hold. On a betting market, for example, LLMs often do not even bet in the same direction as their internally held beliefs over the underlying outcomes. We also find they have moderate self-inconsistency in how they respond to challenges by users to given answers. Finally, we show that the above properties hold even for strong models that obtain high accuracy or that are well-calibrated on the tasks at hand. Our results highlight the difficulties of predicting LLM behavior in complex real-world settings.

This article presents the first systematic review of unsupervised and semi-supervised computational text-based ideal point estimation (CT-IPE) algorithms, methods designed to infer latent political positions from textual data. These algorithms are widely used in political science, communication, computational social science, and computer science to estimate ideological preferences from parliamentary speeches, party manifestos, and social media. Over the past two decades, their development has closely followed broader NLP trends -- beginning with word-frequency models and most recently turning to large language models (LLMs). While this trajectory has greatly expanded the methodological toolkit, it has also produced a fragmented field that lacks systematic comparison and clear guidance for applied use. To address this gap, we identified 25 CT-IPE algorithms through a systematic literature review and conducted a manual content analysis of their modeling assumptions and development contexts. To compare them meaningfully, we introduce a conceptual framework that distinguishes how algorithms generate, capture, and aggregate textual variance. On this basis, we identify four methodological families -- word-frequency, topic modeling, word embedding, and LLM-based approaches -- and critically assess their assumptions, interpretability, scalability, and limitations. Our review offers three contributions. First, it provides a structured synthesis of two decades of algorithm development, clarifying how diverse methods relate to one another. Second, it translates these insights into practical guidance for applied researchers, highlighting trade-offs in transparency, technical requirements, and validation strategies that shape algorithm choice. Third, it emphasizes that differences in estimation outcomes across algorithms are themselves informative, underscoring the need for systematic benchmarking.

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds, most existing approaches require access to specific input features, and rely on posterior mean and variance estimates or the tuning of hyperparameters. These limitations hinder robustness and fail to capture the model's global behavior in expectation. To address these limitations, we propose a chaining-based framework for estimating upper and lower bounds on the expected extreme values over unseen data, without requiring access to specific input features. We provide kernel-specific refinements for commonly used kernels such as RBF and Matérn, in which our bounds are tighter than generic constructions. We further improve numerical tightness by avoiding analytical relaxations. In addition to global estimation, we also develop a novel method for local uncertainty quantification at specified inputs. This approach leverages chaining geometry through partition diameters, adapting to local structures without relying on posterior variance scaling. Our experimental results validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches on both synthetic and real-world datasets.