This paper studies semi-supervised object classification in relational data, which is a fundamental problem in relational data modeling. The problem has been extensively studied in the literature of both statistical relational learning (e.g. relational Markov networks) and graph neural networks (e.g. graph convolutional networks). Statistical relational learning methods can effectively model the dependency of object labels through conditional random fields for collective classification, whereas graph neural networks learn effective object representations for classification through end-to-end training. In this paper, we propose the Graph Markov Neural Network (GMNN) that combines the advantages of both worlds. A GMNN models the joint distribution of object labels with a conditional random field, which can be effectively trained with the variational EM algorithm. In the E-step, one graph neural network learns effective object representations for approximating the posterior distributions of object labels. In the M-step, another graph neural network is used to model the local label dependency. Experiments on object classification, link classification, and unsupervised node representation learning show that GMNN achieves state-of-the-art results.

We consider estimating a piecewise-constant image, or a gradient-sparse signal on a general graph, from noisy linear measurements. We propose and study an iterative algorithm to minimize a penalized least-squares objective, with a penalty given by the "l_0-norm" of the signal's discrete graph gradient. The method proceeds by approximate proximal descent, applying the alpha-expansion procedure to minimize a proximal gradient in each iteration, and using a geometric decay of the penalty parameter across iterations. Under a cut-restricted isometry property for the measurement design, we prove global recovery guarantees for the estimated signal. For standard Gaussian designs, the required number of measurements is independent of the graph structure, and improves upon worst-case guarantees for total-variation (TV) compressed sensing on the 1-D and 2-D lattice graphs by polynomial and logarithmic factors, respectively. The method empirically yields lower mean-squared recovery error compared with TV regularization in regimes of moderate undersampling and moderate to high signal-to-noise, for several examples of changepoint signals and gradient-sparse phantom images.

We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of distribution calibration, and demonstrate its advantages over the existing definition of quantile calibration. We further propose a post-hoc approach to improving the predictions from previously trained regression models, using multi-output Gaussian Processes with a novel Beta link function. The proposed method is experimentally verified on a set of common regression models and shows improvements for both distribution-level and quantile-level calibration.

Many statistical models are given in the form of non-normalized densities with an intractable normalization constant. Since maximum likelihood estimation is computationally intensive for these models, several estimation methods have been developed which do not require explicit computation of the normalization constant, such as noise contrastive estimation (NCE) and score matching. However, model selection methods for general non-normalized models have not been proposed so far. In this study, we develop information criteria for non-normalized models estimated by NCE or score matching. They are derived as approximately unbiased estimators of discrepancy measures for non-normalized models. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed criteria enable selection of the appropriate non-normalized model in a data-driven manner. Extension to a finite mixture of non-normalized models is also discussed.

To gauge the accuracy of machine learning models we use various parameters. The metrics used here will be Average Accuracy, False Positive Rates and False Negative Rates. K-Means is excluded from this metric as it is an unsupervised algorithm. Average Accuracy is defined as the ratio of the correctly classified data points to the total number of data points. False Positives are those cases which were supposed to be returned as threats but aren't. False negatives are just the opposite.

We present a framework that enables estimation of low-dimensional sub-resolution reservoir properties directly from seismic data, without requiring the solution of a high dimensional seismic inverse problem. Our workflow is based on the Bayesian evidential learning approach and exploits learning the direct relation between seismic data and reservoir properties to efficiently estimate reservoir properties. The theoretical framework we develop allows incorporation of non-linear statistical models for seismic estimation problems. Uncertainty quantification is performed with Approximate Bayesian Computation. With the help of a synthetic example of estimation of reservoir net-to-gross and average fluid saturations in sub-resolution thin-sand reservoir, several nuances are foregrounded regarding the applicability of unsupervised and supervised learning methods for seismic estimation problems. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by estimating posterior uncertainty of reservoir net-to-gross in sub-resolution thin-sand reservoir from an offshore delta dataset using 3D pre-stack seismic data.

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate and the exact posterior process in terms of a set of moment functions that arise naturally from the chosen partition. To illustrate possible choices of the partition, we consider special classes of jump processes that frequently occur in applications. We then extend the results to parameter inference and demonstrate the method on several examples.

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.

Speech-driven visual speech synthesis involves mapping features extracted from acoustic speech to the corresponding lip animation controls for a face model. This mapping can take many forms, but a powerful approach is to use deep neural networks (DNNs). However, a limitation is the lack of synchronized audio, video, and depth data required to reliably train the DNNs, especially for speaker-independent models. In this paper, we investigate adapting an automatic speech recognition (ASR) acoustic model (AM) for the visual speech synthesis problem. We train the AM on ten thousand hours of audio-only data. The AM is then adapted to the visual speech synthesis domain using ninety hours of synchronized audio-visual speech. Using a subjective assessment test, we compared the performance of the AM-initialized DNN to one with a random initialization. The results show that viewers significantly prefer animations generated from the AM-initialized DNN than the ones generated using the randomly initialized model. We conclude that visual speech synthesis can significantly benefit from the powerful representation of speech in the ASR acoustic models.

Spaced repetition is among the most studied learning strategies in the cognitive science literature. It consists in temporally distributing exposure to an information so as to improve long-term memorization. Providing students with an adaptive and personalized distributed practice schedule would benefit more than just a generic scheduler. However, the applicability of such adaptive schedulers seems to be limited to pure memorization, e.g. flashcards or foreign language learning. In this article, we first frame the research problem of optimizing an adaptive and personalized spaced repetition scheduler when memorization concerns the application of underlying multiple skills. To this end, we choose to rely on a student model for inferring knowledge state and memory dynamics on any skill or combination of skills. We argue that no knowledge tracing model takes both memory decay and multiple skill tagging into account for predicting student performance. As a consequence, we propose a new student learning and forgetting model suited to our research problem: DAS3H builds on the additive factor models and includes a representation of the temporal distribution of past practice on the skills involved by an item. In particular, DAS3H allows the learning and forgetting curves to differ from one skill to another. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on three real-world educational datasets that DAS3H outperforms other state-of-the-art EDM models. These results suggest that incorporating both item-skill relationships and forgetting effect improves over student models that consider one or the other.