In statistics, the posterior probability expresses how likely a hypothesis is given a particular set of data. This contrasts with the likelihood function, which is represented as P(D H). This distinction is more of an interpretation rather than a mathematical property as both have the form of conditional probability. In order to calculate the posterior probability, we use Bayes theorem, which is discussed below. Bayes theorem, which is the probability of a hypothesis given some prior observable data, relies on the use of likelihood P(D H) alongside the prior P(H) and marginal likelihood P(D) in order to calculate the posterior P(H D).

In many projects, I realized that companies have fantastic business AI ideas but slowly become frustrated when they realize that they don't have enough data… However, solutions do exist! My goal in this article is to briefly introduce you to some of them (the ones that I used the most) rather than listing all existing solutions. This problem of data scarcity is really important since data is at the core of any AI projects. The dataset size is often responsible for poor performances in ML projects. Most of the time, data related issues are the main reason why great AI projects cannot be achieved.

We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by considering various methods of calibrating and analyzing such a model given a few well-resolved simulations. After presenting results for various point estimates and discussing some of their shortcomings, we demonstrate (a) the potential of hierarchical Bayesian analysis to uncover previously unanticipated physical dependencies in the approximate model, and (b) how such insights can then be used to improve the model. In effect parametric dependencies found from the Bayesian analysis are used to improve structural aspects of the model. While we choose to illustrate the procedure in the context of a closure model for buoyancy-driven, variable-density turbulence, the statistical nature of the approach makes it more generally applicable. Towards addressing issues of increased computational cost associated with the procedure, we demonstrate the use of a neural network based surrogate in accelerating the posterior sampling process and point to recent developments in variational inference as an alternative methodology for greatly mitigating such costs. We conclude by suggesting that modern validation and uncertainty quantification techniques such as the ones we consider have a valuable role to play in the development and improvement of approximate models.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) intend to ensure robustness with respect to changing or adversarial system behavior. In this framework, transitions are modeled as arbitrary elements of a known and properly structured uncertainty set and a robust optimal policy can be derived under the worst-case scenario. In this study, we address the issue of learning in RMDPs using a Bayesian approach. We introduce the Uncertainty Robust Bellman Equation (URBE) which encourages safe exploration for adapting the uncertainty set to new observations while preserving robustness. We propose a URBE-based algorithm, DQN-URBE, that scales this method to higher dimensional domains. Our experiments show that the derived URBE-based strategy leads to a better trade-off between less conservative solutions and robustness in the presence of model misspecification. In addition, we show that the DQN-URBE algorithm can adapt significantly faster to changing dynamics online compared to existing robust techniques with fixed uncertainty sets.

Count data are often used in recommender systems: they are widespread (song play counts, product purchases, clicks on web pages) and can reveal user preference without any explicit rating from the user. Such data are known to be sparse, over-dispersed and bursty, which makes their direct use in recommender systems challenging, often leading to pre-processing steps such as binarization. The aim of this paper is to build recommender systems from these raw data, by means of the recently proposed compound Poisson Factorization (cPF). The paper contributions are three-fold: we present a unified framework for discrete data (dcPF), leading to an adaptive and scalable algorithm; we show that our framework achieves a trade-off between Poisson Factorization (PF) applied to raw and binarized data; we study four specific instances that are relevant to recommendation and exhibit new links with combinatorics. Experiments with three different datasets show that dcPF is able to effectively adjust to over-dispersion, leading to better recommendation scores when compared with PF on either raw or binarized data.

We present a windowed technique to learn parsimonious time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate timeseries. This unsupervised method uncovers spatiotemporal structure in data via non-smooth and non-convex optimization. In each time window, we assume the data follow a linear model parameterized by a potentially different system matrix, and we model this stack of system matrices as a low rank tensor. Because of its structure, the model is scalable to high-dimensional data and can easily incorporate priors such as smoothness over time. We find the components of the tensor using alternating minimization and prove that any stationary point of this algorithm is a local minimum. In a test case, our method identifies the true rank of a switching linear system in the presence of noise. We illustrate our model's utility and superior scalability over extant methods when applied to several synthetic and real examples, including a nonlinear dynamical system, worm behavior, sea surface temperature, and monkey brain recordings.

Subsequent work developed finite-sample risk bounds for "Bayesian" learning algorithms which specify a distribution over the model [14]. These bounds are controlled using the empirical risk and the relative entropy between "prior" and "posterior" distributions, and hold uniformly over the choice of the latter, meaning that the guarantees hold for data-dependent posteriors, hence the naming. Furthermore, choosing the posterior to minimize PAC-Bayesian risk bounds leads to practical learning algorithms which have seen numerous successful applications [3]. Following this framework, a tremendous amount of work has been done to refine, extend, and apply the PAC-Bayesian framework to new learning problems. Tight risk bounds for bounded losses are due to Seeger [16] and Maurer [12], with the former work applying them to Gaussian processes.

This article is intended for beginners in deep learning who wish to gain knowledge about probability and statistics and also as a reference for practitioners. In my previous article, I wrote about the concepts of linear algebra for deep learning in a top down approach ( link for the article) (If you do not have enough idea about linear algebra, please read that first).The same top down approach is used here.Providing the description of use cases first and then the concepts. All the example code uses python and numpy.Formulas are provided as images for reuse. Probability is the science of quantifying uncertain things.Most of machine learning and deep learning systems utilize a lot of data to learn about patterns in the data.Whenever data is utilized in a system rather than sole logic, uncertainty grows up and whenever uncertainty grows up, probability becomes relevant. By introducing probability to a deep learning system, we introduce common sense to the system.Otherwise the system would be very brittle and will not be useful.In deep learning, several models like bayesian models, probabilistic graphical models, hidden markov models are used.They depend entirely on probability concepts.

In this thesis, we leverage the neural copy mechanism and memory-augmented neural networks (MANNs) to address existing challenge of neural task-oriented dialogue learning. We show the effectiveness of our strategy by achieving good performance in multi-domain dialogue state tracking, retrieval-based dialogue systems, and generation-based dialogue systems. We first propose a transferable dialogue state generator (TRADE) that leverages its copy mechanism to get rid of dialogue ontology and share knowledge between domains. We also evaluate unseen domain dialogue state tracking and show that TRADE enables zero-shot dialogue state tracking and can adapt to new few-shot domains without forgetting the previous domains. Second, we utilize MANNs to improve retrieval-based dialogue learning. They are able to capture dialogue sequential dependencies and memorize long-term information. We also propose a recorded delexicalization copy strategy to replace real entity values with ordered entity types. Our models are shown to surpass other retrieval baselines, especially when the conversation has a large number of turns. Lastly, we tackle generation-based dialogue learning with two proposed models, the memory-to-sequence (Mem2Seq) and global-to-local memory pointer network (GLMP). Mem2Seq is the first model to combine multi-hop memory attention with the idea of the copy mechanism. GLMP further introduces the concept of response sketching and double pointers copying. We show that GLMP achieves the state-of-the-art performance on human evaluation.

In this paper, a review of model-free reinforcement learning for learning of dynamical systems in uncertain environments has discussed. For this purpose, the Markov Decision Process (MDP) will be reviewed. Furthermore, some learning algorithms such as Temporal Difference (TD) learning, Q-Learning, and Approximate Q-learning as model-free algorithms which constitute the main part of this article have been investigated, and benefits and drawbacks of each algorithm will be discussed. The discussed concepts in each section are explaining with details and examples.