The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like popularity of spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analysed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.

Decision making in dense traffic can be challenging for autonomous vehicles. An autonomous system only relying on predefined road priorities and considering other drivers as moving objects will cause the vehicle to freeze and fail the maneuver. Human drivers leverage the cooperation of other drivers to avoid such deadlock situations and convince others to change their behavior. Decision making algorithms must reason about the interaction with other drivers and anticipate a broad range of driver behaviors. In this work, we present a reinforcement learning approach to learn how to interact with drivers with different cooperation levels. We enhanced the performance of traditional reinforcement learning algorithms by maintaining a belief over the level of cooperation of other drivers. We show that our agent successfully learns how to navigate a dense merging scenario with less deadlocks than with online planning methods.

Data selection methods such as active learning and core-set selection are useful tools for machine learning on large datasets, but they can be prohibitively expensive to apply in deep learning. Unlike in other areas of machine learning, the feature representations that these techniques depend on are learned in deep learning rather than given, which takes a substantial amount of training time. In this work, we show that we can significantly improve the computational efficiency of data selection in deep learning by using a much smaller proxy model to perform data selection for tasks that will eventually require a large target model (e.g., selecting data points to label for active learning). In deep learning, we can scale down models by removing hidden layers or reducing their dimension to create proxies that are an order of magnitude faster. Although these small proxy models have significantly higher error, we find that they empirically provide useful rankings for data selection that have a high correlation with those of larger models. We evaluate this "selection via proxy" (SVP) approach on several data selection tasks. For active learning, applying SVP to Sener and Savarese [2018]'s recent method for active learning in deep learning gives a 4x improvement in execution time while yielding the same model accuracy. For core-set selection, we show that a proxy model that trains 10x faster than a target ResNet164 model on CIFAR10 can be used to remove 50% of the training data without compromising the accuracy of the target model, making end-to-end training time improvements via core-set selection possible.

Machine and reinforcement learning (RL) are being applied to plan and control the behavior of autonomous systems interacting with the physical world -- examples include self-driving vehicles, distributed sensor networks, and agile robots. However, if machine learning is to be applied in these new settings, the resulting algorithms must come with the reliability, robustness, and safety guarantees that are hallmarks of the control theory literature, as failures could be catastrophic. Thus, as RL algorithms are increasingly and more aggressively deployed in safety critical settings, it is imperative that control theorists be part of the conversation. The goal of this tutorial paper is to provide a jumping off point for control theorists wishing to work on RL related problems by covering recent advances in bridging learning and control theory, and by placing these results within the appropriate historical context of the system identification and adaptive control literatures.

The honeynet is a promising active cyber defense mechanism. It reveals the fundamental Indicators of Compromise (IoC) by luring attackers to conduct adversarial behaviors in a controlled and monitored environment. The active interaction at the honeynet brings a high reward but also introduces high implementation costs and risks of adversarial honeynet exploitation. In this work, we apply the infinite-horizon Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) to characterize the stochastic transition and sojourn time of attackers in the honeynet and quantify the reward-risk trade-off. In particular, we produce adaptive long-term engagement policies shown to be risk-averse, cost-effective, and time-efficient. Numerical results have demonstrated that our adaptive interaction policies can quickly attract attackers to the target honeypot and engage them for a sufficiently long period to obtain worthy threat information. Meanwhile, the penetration probability is kept at a low level. The results show that the expected utility is robust against attackers of a large range of persistence and intelligence. Finally, we apply reinforcement learning to SMDP to solve the curse of modeling. Under a prudent choice of the learning rate and exploration policy, we achieve a quick and robust convergence of the optimal policy and value.

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a developmental disorder that often impairs a child's normal development of the brain. According to CDC, it is estimated that 1 in 6 children in the US suffer from development disorders, and 1 in 68 children in the US suffer from ASD. This condition has a negative impact on a person's ability to hear, socialize and communicate. Overall, ASD has a broad range of symptoms and severity; hence the term spectrum is used. One of the main contributors to ASD is known to be genetics. Up to date, no suitable cure for ASD has been found. Early diagnosis is crucial for the long-term treatment of ASD, but this is challenging due to the lack of a proper objective measures. Subjective measures often take more time, resources, and have false positives or false negatives. There is a need for efficient objective measures that can help in diagnosing this disease early as possible with less effort. EEG measures the electric signals of the brain via electrodes placed on various places on the scalp. These signals can be used to study complex neuropsychiatric issues. Studies have shown that EEG has the potential to be used as a biomarker for various neurological conditions including ASD. This chapter will outline the usage of EEG measurement for the classification of ASD using machine learning algorithms.

This paper is a broad and accessible survey of the methods we have at our disposal for Monte Carlo gradient estimation in machine learning and across the statistical sciences: the problem of computing the gradient of an expectation of a function with respect to parameters defining the distribution that is integrated; the problem of sensitivity analysis. In machine learning research, this gradient problem lies at the core of many learning problems, in supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. We will generally seek to rewrite such gradients in a form that allows for Monte Carlo estimation, allowing them to be easily and efficiently used and analysed. We explore three strategies--the pathwise, score function, and measure-valued gradient estimators-- exploring their historical developments, derivation, and underlying assumptions. We describe their use in other fields, show how they are related and can be combined, and expand on their possible generalisations. Wherever Monte Carlo gradient estimators have been derived and deployed in the past, important advances have followed. A deeper and more widely-held understanding of this problem will lead to further advances, and it is these advances that we wish to support.

When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy (Hyndman et al., 2011; Wickramasuriya et al., 2018). We propose a new loss function that can be incorporated into any maximum likelihood objective with hierarchical data, resulting in reconciled estimates with confidence intervals that correctly account for additional uncertainty due to imperfect reconciliation. We evaluate our method using a non-linear model and synthetic data on a counterfactual forecasting problem, where we have access to the ground truth and contemporaneous covariates, and show that we largely improve over the existing state-of-the-art method.

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network model is proposed to guide the learning of the autoencoder by modeling the dependence of agent reliabilities corresponding to different data samples. At the same time, it also models the social relationships between agents in the network. The proposed approach is unsupervised and is applicable when ground truth labels of events are unavailable. A variational inference method is used to jointly estimate the hidden variables in the Bayesian network and the parameters in the autoencoder. Simulations and experiments on real data suggest that the proposed method performs better than several other inference methods, including majority voting, the Bayesian Classifier Combination (BCC) method, the Community BCC method, and the recently proposed VISIT method.

Intelligent agents can cope with sensory-rich environments by learning task-agnostic state abstractions. In this paper, we propose mechanisms to approximate causal states, which optimally compress the joint history of actions and observations in partially-observable Markov decision processes. Our proposed algorithm extracts causal state representations from RNNs that are trained to predict subsequent observations given the history. We demonstrate that these learned task-agnostic state abstractions can be used to efficiently learn policies for reinforcement learning problems with rich observation spaces. We evaluate agents using multiple partially observable navigation tasks with both discrete (GridWorld) and continuous (VizDoom, ALE) observation processes that cannot be solved by traditional memory-limited methods. Our experiments demonstrate systematic improvement of the DQN and tabular models using approximate causal state representations with respect to recurrent-DQN baselines trained with raw inputs.