Making decisions in complex environments is a key challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Situations involving multiple decision makers are particularly complex, leading to computation intractability of principled solution methods. A body of work in AI [4, 3, 41, 45, 47, 2] has tried to mitigate this problem by trying to bring down interaction to its core: how does the policy of one agent influence another agent? If we can find more compact representations of such influence, this can help us deal with the complexity, for instance by searching the space of influences rather than that of policies [45]. However, so far these notions of influence have been restricted in their applicability to special cases of interaction. In this paper we formalize influence-based abstraction (IBA), which facilitates the elimination of latent state factors without any loss in value, for a very general class of problems described as factored partially observable stochastic games (fPOSGs) [33]. This generalizes existing descriptions of influence, and thus can serve as the foundation for improvements in scalability and other insights in decision making in complex settings.

Floating centroid method (FCM) offers an efficient way to solve a fixed-centroid problem for the neural network classifiers. However, evolutionary computation as its optimization method restrains the FCM to achieve satisfactory performance for different neural network structures, because of the high computational complexity and inefficiency. Traditional gradient-based methods have been extensively adopted to optimize the neural network classifiers. In this study, a gradient-based floating centroid (GDFC) method is introduced to address the fixed centroid problem for the neural network classifiers optimized by gradient-based methods. Furthermore, a new loss function for optimizing GDFC is introduced. The experimental results display that GDFC obtains promising classification performance than the comparison methods on the benchmark datasets.

We propose a new model for forming beliefs and learning about unknown probabilities (such as the probability of picking a red marble from a bag with an unknown distribution of coloured marbles). The most widespread model for such situations of 'radical uncertainty' is in terms of imprecise probabilities, i.e. representing the agent's knowledge as a set of probability measures. We add to this model a plausibility map, associating to each measure a plausibility number, as a way to go beyond what is known with certainty and represent the agent's beliefs about probability. There are a number of standard examples: Shannon Entropy, Centre of Mass etc. We then consider learning of two types of information: (1) learning by repeated sampling from the unknown distribution (e.g. picking marbles from the bag); and (2) learning higher-order information about the distribution (in the shape of linear inequalities, e.g. we are told there are more red marbles than green marbles). The first changes only the plausibility map (via a 'plausibilistic' version of Bayes' Rule), but leaves the given set of measures unchanged; the second shrinks the set of measures, without changing their plausibility. Beliefs are defined as in Belief Revision Theory, in terms of truth in the most plausible worlds. But our belief change does not comply with standard AGM axioms, since the revision induced by (1) is of a non-AGM type. This is essential, as it allows our agents to learn the true probability: we prove that the beliefs obtained by repeated sampling converge almost surely to the correct belief (in the true probability). We end by sketching the contours of a dynamic doxastic logic for statistical learning.

The Internet of Things (IoT) extends the Internet connectivity into billions of IoT devices around the world, which collect and share information to reflect the status of physical world. The Autonomous Control System (ACS), on the other hand, performs control functions on the physical systems without external intervention over an extended period of time. The integration of IoT and ACS results in a new concept - autonomous IoT (AIoT). The sensors collect information on the system status, based on which intelligent agents in IoT devices as well as Edge/Fog/Cloud servers make control decisions for the actuators to react. In order to achieve autonomy, a promising method is for the intelligent agents to leverage the techniques in the field of artificial intelligence, especially reinforcement learning (RL) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for decision making. In this paper, we first provide comprehensive survey of the state-of-art research, and then propose a general model for the applications of RL/DRL in AIoT. Finally, the challenges and open issues for future research are identified.

Multi-parameter cognition in a cognitive radio network (CRN) provides a more thorough understanding of the radio environments, and could potentially lead to far more intelligent and efficient spectrum usage for a secondary user. In this paper, we investigate the multi-parameter cognition problem for a CRN where the primary transmitter (PT) radiates multiple transmit power levels, and propose a learning-based two-stage spectrum sharing strategy. We first propose a data-driven/machine learning based multi-level spectrum sensing scheme, including the spectrum learning (Stage I) and prediction (the first part in Stage II). This fully blind sensing scheme does not require any prior knowledge of the PT power characteristics. Then, based on a novel normalized power level alignment metric, we propose two prediction-transmission structures, namely periodic and non-periodic, for spectrum access (the second part in Stage II), which enable the secondary transmitter (ST) to closely follow the PT power level variation. The periodic structure features a fixed prediction interval, while the non-periodic one dynamically determines the interval with a proposed reinforcement learning algorithm to further improve the alignment metric. Finally, we extend the prediction-transmission structure to an online scenario, where the number of PT power levels might change as a consequence of PT adapting to the environment fluctuation or quality of service variation. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy in various scenarios.

We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level. The intended application is modeling voter preferences in elections. In Rosenman and Viswanathan (2018), we proposed modeling individual voter probabilities via a logistic regression, and posing the problem as a maximum likelihood estimation for the parameter vector beta. The likelihood is a Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identically distributed Bernoulli variables, though we approximate it with a heteroscedastic Gaussian for computational efficiency. Here, we extend the prior work by proving results about the existence of the MLE and the curvature of this likelihood, which is not log-concave in general. We further demonstrate the utility of our method on a real data example. Using data on voters in Morris County, NJ, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms other ecological inference methods in predicting a related, but known outcome: whether an individual votes.

Modelling statistical relationships beyond the conditional mean is crucial in many settings. Conditional density estimation (CDE) aims to learn the full conditional probability density from data. Though highly expressive, neural network based CDE models can suffer from severe over-fitting when trained with the maximum likelihood objective. Due to the inherent structure of such models, classical regularization approaches in the parameter space are rendered ineffective. To address this issue, we develop a model-agnostic noise regularization method for CDE that adds random perturbations to the data during training. We demonstrate that the proposed approach corresponds to a smoothness regularization and prove its asymptotic consistency. In our experiments, noise regularization significantly and consistently outperforms other regularization methods across seven data sets and three CDE models. The effectiveness of noise regularization makes neural network based CDE the preferable method over previous non- and semi-parametric approaches, even when training data is scarce.

In Bayesian machine learning, the posterior distribution is typically computationally intractable, hence variational inference is often required. In this approach, an evidence lower bound on the log likelihood of data is maximized during training. Variational Autoencoders (VAE) are one important example where variational inference is utilized. In this tutorial, we derive the variational lower bound loss function of the standard variational autoencoder. We do so in the instance of a gaussian latent prior and gaussian approximate posterior, under which assumptions the Kullback-Leibler term in the variational lower bound has a closed form solution. We derive essentially everything we use along the way; everything from Bayes' theorem to the Kullback-Leibler divergence.

Twitter @tarantulae 4. Uncertainty in Deep Learning - Christian S. Perone (2019) Uncertainties Bayesian Inference Deep Learning Variational Inference Ensembles Q&A Section I Uncertainties 5. Uncertainty in Deep Learning - Christian S. Perone (2019) Uncertainties Bayesian Inference Deep Learning Variational Inference Ensembles Q&A Knowing what you don't know It is correct, somebody might say, that (...) Socrates did not know anything; and it was indeed wisdom that they recognized their own lack of knowledge, (...).

We introduce Arena, a toolkit for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) research. In MARL, it usually requires customizing observations, rewards and actions for each agent, changing cooperative-competitive agent-interaction, and playing with/against a third-party agent, etc. We provide a novel modular design, called Interface, for manipulating such routines in essentially two ways: 1) Different interfaces can be concatenated and combined, which extends the OpenAI Gym Wrappers concept to MARL scenarios. 2) During MARL training or testing, interfaces can be embedded in either wrapped OpenAI Gym compatible Environments or raw environment compatible Agents. We offer off-the-shelf interfaces for several popular MARL platforms, including StarCraft II, Pommerman, ViZDoom, Soccer, etc. The interfaces effectively support self-play RL and cooperative-competitive hybrid MARL. Also, Arena can be conveniently extended to your own favorite MARL platform.