We present the DualSMC network that solves continuous POMDPs by learning belief representations and then leveraging them for planning. It is based on the fact that filtering, i.e. state estimation, and planning can be viewed as two related sequential Monte Carlo processes, with one in the belief space and the other in the future planning trajectory space. In particular, we first introduce a novel particle filter network that makes better use of the adversarial relationship between the proposer model and the observation model. We then introduce a new planning algorithm over the belief representations, which learns uncertainty-dependent policies. We allow these two parts to be trained jointly with each other. We testify the effectiveness of our approach on three continuous control and planning tasks: the floor positioning, the 3D light-dark navigation, and a modified Reacher task.

Mohamadreza Ahmadi, Masahiro Ono, Michel D. Ingham, Richard M. Murray, and Aaron D. Ames Abstract -- We consider the problem of designing policies for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives. Synthesizing risk-averse optimal policies for POMDPs requires infinite memory and thus undecidable. T o overcome this difficulty, we propose a method based on bounded policy iteration for designing stochastic but finite state (memory) controllers, which takes advantage of standard convex optimization methods. Given a memory budget and optimality criterion, the proposed method modifies the stochastic finite state controller leading to sub-optimal solutions with lower coherent risk. I NTRODUCTION With the rise of autonomous systems being deployed in real-world settings, the associated risk that stems from unknown and unforeseen circumstances is correspondingly on the rise. In particular, in safety-critical scenarios, such as aerospace applications, decision making should account for risk. For example, spacecraft control technology relies heavily on a relatively large and highly skilled mission operations team that generates detailed time-ordered and event-driven sequences of commands. This approach will not be viable in the future with increasing number of missions and a desire to limit the operations team and Deep Space Network (DSN) costs.

In the presence of non-admissible heuristics, A* and other best-first algorithms can be converted into anytime optimal algorithms over OR graphs, by simply continuing the search after the first solution is found. The same trick, however, does not work for best-first algorithms over AND/OR graphs, that must be able to expand leaf nodes of the explicit graph that are not necessarily part of the best partial solution. Anytime optimal variants of AO* must thus address an exploration-exploitation tradeoff: they cannot just "exploit", they must keep exploring as well. In this work, we develop one such variant of AO* and apply it to finite-horizon MDPs. This Anytime AO* algorithm eventually delivers an optimal policy while using non-admissible random heuristics that can be sampled, as when the heuristic is the cost of a base policy that can be sampled with rollouts. We then test Anytime AO* for action selection over large infinite-horizon MDPs that cannot be solved with existing off-line heuristic search and dynamic programming algorithms, and compare it with UCT. Introduction One of the natural approaches for selecting actions in very large state spaces is by performing a limited amount of lookahead. In the contexts of discounted MDPs, Kearns, Mansour, and Ng have shown that near to optimal actions can be selected by considering a sampled lookahead tree that is sufficiently sparse, whose size depends on the discount factor and the suboptimality bound but not on the number of problem states (Kearns, Mansour, and Ng 1999).

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

We study the problem of training machine learning models incrementally using active learning with access to imperfect or noisy oracles. We specifically consider the setting of batch active learning, in which multiple samples are selected as opposed to a single sample as in classical settings so as to reduce the training overhead. Our approach bridges between uniform randomness and score based importance sampling of clusters when selecting a batch of new samples. Experiments on benchmark image classification datasets (MNIST, SVHN, and CIFAR10) shows improvement over existing active learning strategies. We introduce an extra denoising layer to deep networks to make active learning robust to label noises and show significant improvements.

The data deluge comes with high demands for data labeling. Crowdsourcing (or, more generally, ensemble learning) techniques aim to produce accurate labels via integrating noisy, non-expert labeling from annotators. The classic Dawid-Skene estimator and its accompanying expectation maximization (EM) algorithm have been widely used, but the theoretical properties are not fully understood. Tensor methods were proposed to guarantee identification of the Dawid-Skene model, but the sample complexity is a hurdle for applying such approaches---since the tensor methods hinge on the availability of third-order statistics that are hard to reliably estimate given limited data. In this paper, we propose a framework using pairwise co-occurrences of the annotator responses, which naturally admits lower sample complexity. We show that the approach can identify the Dawid-Skene model under realistic conditions. We propose an algebraic algorithm reminiscent of convex geometry-based structured matrix factorization to solve the model identification problem efficiently, and an identifiability-enhanced algorithm for handling more challenging and critical scenarios. Experiments show that the proposed algorithms outperform the state-of-art algorithms under a variety of scenarios.

The problem of belief tracking in the presence of stochastic actions and observations is pervasive and yet computationally intractable. In this work we show however that probabilistic beliefs can be maintained in factored form exactly and efficiently across a number of causally closed beams, when the state variables that appear in more than one beam obey a form of backward determinism . Since computing marginals from the factors is still computationally intractable in general, and variables appearing in several beams are not always backward-deterministic, the basic formulation is extended with two approximations: forms of belief propagation for computing marginals from factors, and sampling of non-backward-deterministic variables for making such variables backward-deterministic given their sampled history. Unlike, Rao-Blackwellized particle-filtering, the sampling is not used for making inference tractable but for making the factorization sound . The resulting algorithm involves sampling and belief propagation or just one of them as determined by the structure of the model.

Belief tracking is a basic problem in planning with sensing. While the problem is intractable, it has been recently shown that for both deterministic and non-deterministic systems expressed in compact form, it can be done in time and space that are exponential in the problem width. The width measures the maximum number of state variables that are all relevant to a given precondition or goal. In this work, we extend this result both theoretically and practically. First, we introduce an alternative decomposition scheme and algorithm with the same time complexity but different completeness guarantees, whose space complexity is much smaller: exponential in the causal width of the problem that measures the number of state variables that are causally relevant to a given precondition, goal, or observable. Second, we introduce a fast, meaningful, and powerful approximation that trades completeness by speed, and is both time and space exponential in the problem causal width . It is then shown empirically that the algorithm combined with simple heuristics yields state-of-the-art real-time performance in domains with high widths but low causal widths such as Minesweeper, Battleship, and Wumpus.

This article presents the emerging topic of dynamic search (DS). To position dynamic search in a larger research landscape, the article discusses in detail its relationship to related research topics and disciplines. The article reviews approaches to modeling dynamics during information seeking, with an emphasis on Reinforcement Learning (RL)-enabled methods. Details are given for how different approaches are used to model interactions among the human user, the search system, and the environment. The paper ends with a review of evaluations of dynamic search systems.

Valuation-Based System can represent knowledge in different domains including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and possibility theory. More recent studies show that the framework of VBS is also appropriate for representing and solving Bayesian decision problems and optimization problems. In this paper after introducing the valuation based system (VBS) framework, we present Markov-like properties of VBS and a method for resolving queries to VBS. 1 Introduction Though graphical representation of a domain knowledge has quite long history, its full potential has not been recognized until recently. We should mention here pioneering works of J. Pearl, reported in his monography published in 1988 [ 1988] . Further development in this domain has been achieved by Shenoy and Shafer [ 1986 ] who adopted a method used in solving nonserial dynamic programming problems [ Bertele & Brioschi, 1972 ] . This trick proved to be very fruitful and gave growth to a unified framework for uncertainty representation and reasoning, called V aluation-Based System, VBS for short [ Shenoy, 1989 ] .