The standard approach to fitting an autoregressive spike train model is to maximize the likelihood for one-step prediction. This maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) often leads to models that perform poorly when generating samples recursively for more than one time step. Moreover, the generated spike trains can fail to capture important features of the data and even show diverging firing rates. To alleviate this, we propose to directly minimize the divergence between neural recorded and model generated spike trains using spike train kernels. We develop a method that stochastically optimizes the maximum mean discrepancy induced by the kernel. Experiments performed on both real and synthetic neural data validate the proposed approach, showing that it leads to well-behaving models. Using different combinations of spike train kernels, we show that we can control the trade-off between different features which is critical for dealing with model-mismatch.

While distributional reinforcement learning (DistRL) has been empirically effective, the question of when and why it is better than vanilla, non-distributional RL has remained unanswered.This paper explains the benefits of DistRL through the lens of small-loss bounds, which are instance-dependent bounds that scale with optimal achievable cost.Particularly, our bounds converge much faster than those from non-distributional approaches if the optimal cost is small.As warmup, we propose a distributional contextual bandit (DistCB) algorithm, which we show enjoys small-loss regret bounds and empirically outperforms the state-of-the-art on three real-world tasks.In online RL, we propose a DistRL algorithm that constructs confidence sets using maximum likelihood estimation. We prove that our algorithm enjoys novel small-loss PAC bounds in low-rank MDPs.As part of our analysis, we introduce the $\ell_1$ distributional eluder dimension which may be of independent interest. Then, in offline RL, we show that pessimistic DistRL enjoys small-loss PAC bounds that are novel to the offline setting and are more robust to bad single-policy coverage.

We propose to jointly analyze experts' eye movements and verbal narrations to discover important and interpretable knowledge patterns to better understand their decision-making processes. The discovered patterns can further enhance data-driven statistical models by fusing experts' domain knowledge to support complex human-machine collaborative decision-making. Our key contribution is a novel dynamic Bayesian nonparametric model that assigns latent knowledge patterns into key phases involved in complex decision-making. Each phase is characterized by a unique distribution of word topics discovered from verbal narrations and their dynamic interactions with eye movement patterns, indicating experts' special perceptual behavior within a given decision-making stage. A new split-merge-switch sampler is developed to efficiently explore the posterior state space with an improved mixing rate. Case studies on diagnostic error prediction and disease morphology categorization help demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and discovered knowledge patterns.

We consider learning the structures of Gaussian latent tree models with vector observations when a subset of them are arbitrarily corrupted. First, we present the sample complexities of Recursive Grouping (RG) and Chow-Liu Recursive Grouping (CLRG) without the assumption that the effective depth is bounded in the number of observed nodes, significantly generalizing the results in Choi et al. (2011). We show that Chow-Liu initialization in CLRG greatly reduces the sample complexity of RG from being exponential in the diameter of the tree to only logarithmic in the diameter for the hidden Markov model (HMM).

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

We focus on causal discovery in the presence of measurement error in linear systems where the mixing matrix, i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables, is identified up to permutation and scaling of the columns. We demonstrate a somewhat surprising connection between this problem and causal discovery in the presence of unobserved parentless causes, in the sense that there is a mapping, given by the mixing matrix, between the underlying models to be inferred in these problems. Consequently, any identifiability result based on the mixing matrix for one model translates to an identifiability result for the other model. We characterize to what extent the causal models can be identified under a two-part faithfulness assumption. Under only the first part of the assumption (corresponding to the conventional definition of faithfulness), the structure can be learned up to the causal ordering among an ordered grouping of the variables but not all the edges across the groups can be identified. We further show that if both parts of the faithfulness assumption are imposed, the structure can be learned up to a more refined ordered grouping. As a result of this refinement, for the latent variable model with unobserved parentless causes, the structure can be identified. Based on our theoretical results, we propose causal structure learning methods for both models, and evaluate their performance on synthetic data.

To analyze a collection of interconnected documents, relational topic models (RTMs) have been developed to describe both the link structure and document content, exploring their underlying relationships via a single-layer latent representation with limited expressive capability. To better utilize the document network, we first propose graph Poisson factor analysis (GPFA) that constructs a probabilistic model for interconnected documents and also provides closed-form Gibbs sampling update equations, moving beyond sophisticated approximate assumptions of existing RTMs. Extending GPFA, we develop a novel hierarchical RTM named graph Poisson gamma belief network (GPGBN), and further introduce two different Weibull distribution based variational graph auto-encoders for efficient model inference and effective network information aggregation. Experimental results demonstrate that our models extract high-quality hierarchical latent document representations, leading to improved performance over baselines on various graph analytic tasks.

We study the problem of learning generalized linear models under adversarial corruptions.We analyze a classical heuristic called the \textit{iterative trimmed maximum likelihood estimator} which is known to be effective against \textit{label corruptions} in practice. Under label corruptions, we prove that this simple estimator achieves minimax near-optimal risk on a wide range of generalized linear models, including Gaussian regression, Poisson regression and Binomial regression. Finally, we extend the estimator to the much more challenging setting of \textit{label and covariate corruptions} and demonstrate its robustness and optimality in that setting as well.

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define generalised filtering recursions in HMMs, that can tackle the problem of inference under model misspecification. In doing so, we arrive at principled procedures for robust inference against observation contamination by utilising the $\beta$-divergence. Operationalising the proposed framework is made possible via sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC), where the standard particle methods, and their associated convergence results, are readily adapted to the new setting. We demonstrate our approach to object tracking and Gaussian process regression problems, and observe improved performance over standard filtering algorithms.

We investigate the parameterized complexity of Bayesian Network Structure Learning (BNSL), a classical problem that has received significant attention in empirical but also purely theoretical studies. We follow up on previous works that have analyzed the complexity of BNSL w.r.t. the so-called superstructure of the input. While known results imply that BNSL is unlikely to be fixed-parameter tractable even when parameterized by the size of a vertex cover in the superstructure, here we show that a different kind of parameterization - notably by the size of a feedback edge set - yields fixed-parameter tractability. We proceed by showing that this result can be strengthened to a localized version of the feedback edge set, and provide corresponding lower bounds that complement previous results to provide a complexity classification of BNSL w.r.t.