However, due to the intractable partition function, they are typically trained via contrastive divergence for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we propose pseudo-spherical contrastive divergence (PS-CD) to generalize maximum likelihood learning of EBMs. PS-CD is derived from the maximization of a family of strictly proper homogeneous scoring rules, which avoids the computation of the intractable partition function and provides a generalized family of learning objectives that include contrastive divergence as a special case. Moreover, PS-CD allows us to flexibly choose various learning objectives to train EBMs without additional computational cost or variational minimax optimization. Theoretical analysis on the proposed method and extensive experiments on both synthetic data and commonly used image datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and modeling flexibility of PS-CD, as well as its robustness to data contamination, thus showing its superiority over maximum likelihood and $f$-EBMs.

We consider a multi-armed bandit problem with $M$ latent contexts, where an agent interacts with the environment for an episode of $H$ time steps. Depending on the length of the episode, the learner may not be able to estimate accurately the latent context. The resulting partial observation of the environment makes the learning task significantly more challenging. Without any additional structural assumptions, existing techniques to tackle partially observed settings imply the decision maker can learn a near-optimal policy with $O(A)^H$ episodes, but do not promise more. In this work, we show that learning with {\em polynomial} samples in $A$ is possible. We achieve this by using techniques from experiment design. Then, through a method-of-moments approach, we design a procedure that provably learns a near-optimal policy with $O(\poly(A) + \poly(M,H)^{\min(M,H)})$ interactions. In practice, we show that we can formulate the moment-matching via maximum likelihood estimation. In our experiments, this significantly outperforms the worst-case guarantees, as well as existing practical methods.

Can we use spiking neural networks (SNN) as generative models of multi-neuronal recordings, while taking into account that most neurons are unobserved? Modeling the unobserved neurons with large pools of hidden spiking neurons leads to severely underconstrained problems that are hard to tackle with maximum likelihood estimation. In this work, we use coarse-graining and mean-field approximations to derive a bottom-up, neuronally-grounded latent variable model (neuLVM), where the activity of the unobserved neurons is reduced to a low-dimensional mesoscopic description. In contrast to previous latent variable models, neuLVM can be explicitly mapped to a recurrent, multi-population SNN, giving it a transparent biological interpretation. We show, on synthetic spike trains, that a few observed neurons are sufficient for neuLVM to perform efficient model inversion of large SNNs, in the sense that it can recover connectivity parameters, infer single-trial latent population activity, reproduce ongoing metastable dynamics, and generalize when subjected to perturbations mimicking optogenetic stimulation.

Sparse models are desirable for many applications across diverse domains as they can perform automatic variable selection, aid interpretability, and provide regularization. When fitting sparse models in a Bayesian framework, however, analytically obtaining a posterior distribution over the parameters of interest is intractable for all but the simplest cases. As a result practitioners must rely on either sampling algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational methods to obtain an approximate posterior. Mean field variational inference is a particularly simple and popular framework that is often amenable to analytically deriving closed-form parameter updates. When all distributions in the model are members of exponential families and are conditionally conjugate, optimization schemes can often be derived by hand.

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event prediction models are trained with sequential data collected at one time and need to generalize to newly arrived sequences in remote future, which requires models to handle temporal distribution shift from training to testing. In this paper, we first take a data-generating perspective to reveal a negative result that existing approaches with maximum likelihood estimation would fail for distribution shift due to the latent context confounder, i.e., the common cause for the historical events and the next event. Then we devise a new learning objective based on backdoor adjustment and further harness variational inference to make it tractable for sequence learning problems. On top of that, we propose a framework with hierarchical branching structures for learning context-specific representations. Comprehensive experiments on diverse tasks (e.g., sequential recommendation) demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability and scalability of our method with various off-the-shelf models as backbones.

Neural signals are typical nonstationary data where the functional mapping between neural activities and the intentions (such as the velocity of movements) can occasionally change. Existing studies mostly use a fixed neural decoder, thus suffering from an unstable performance given neural functional changes. We propose a novel evolutionary ensemble framework (EvoEnsemble) to dynamically cope with changes in neural signals by evolving the decoder model accordingly. EvoEnsemble integrates evolutionary computation algorithms in a Bayesian framework where the fitness of models can be sequentially computed with their likelihoods according to the incoming data at each time slot, which enables online tracking of time-varying functions. Two strategies of evolve-at-changes and history-model-archive are designed to further improve efficiency and stability. Experiments with simulations and neural signals demonstrate that EvoEnsemble can track the changes in functions effectively thus improving the accuracy and robustness of neural decoding. The improvement is most significant in neural signals with functional changes.

Training regimes based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) suffer from known limitations, often leading to poorly generated text sequences that lack of coherence, factualness, and are prone to repetitions. At the root of these limitations is the mismatch between training and inference, i.e. the so-called exposure bias. Another problem lies in considering only the reference text as correct, while in practice several alternative formulations could be as good. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) could mitigate those limitations. Nonetheless, the discrete nature of text has hindered their application to language generation: the approaches proposed so far, based on Reinforcement Learning, have been shown to under-perform MLE.

Group fairness is measured via parity of quantitative metrics across different protected demographic groups. In this paper, we investigate the problem of reliably assessing group fairness metrics when labeled examples are few but unlabeled examples are plentiful. We propose a general Bayesian framework that can augment labeled data with unlabeled data to produce more accurate and lower-variance estimates compared to methods based on labeled data alone. Our approach estimates calibrated scores (for unlabeled examples) of each group using a hierarchical latent variable model conditioned on labeled examples. This in turn allows for inference of posterior distributions for an array of group fairness metrics with a notion of uncertainty. We demonstrate that our approach leads to significant and consistent reductions in estimation error across multiple well-known fairness datasets, sensitive attributes, and predictive models. The results clearly show the benefits of using both unlabeled data and Bayesian inference in assessing whether a prediction model is fair or not.

Partial observability is a common challenge in many reinforcement learning applications, which requires an agent to maintain memory, infer latent states, and integrate this past information into exploration. This challenge leads to a number of computational and statistical hardness results for learning general Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). This work shows that these hardness barriers do not preclude efficient reinforcement learning for rich and interesting subclasses of POMDPs. In particular, we present a sample-efficient algorithm, OOM-UCB, for episodic finite undercomplete POMDPs, where the number of observations is larger than the number of latent states and where exploration is essential for learning, thus distinguishing our results from prior works. OOM-UCB achieves an optimal sample complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\varepsilon^2)$ for finding an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy, along with being polynomial in all other relevant quantities. As an interesting special case, we also provide a computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for POMDPs with deterministic state transitions.

We consider the best-of-both-worlds problem for learning an episodic Markov Decision Process through $T$ episodes, with the goal of achieving $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret when the losses are adversarial and simultaneously $\mathcal{O}(\log T)$ regret when the losses are (almost) stochastic. Recent work by [Jin and Luo, 2020] achieves this goal when the fixed transition is known, and leaves the case of unknown transition as a major open question. In this work, we resolve this open problem by using the same Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) framework together with a set of new techniques. Specifically, we first propose a loss-shifting trick in the FTRL analysis, which greatly simplifies the approach of [Jin and Luo, 2020] and already improves their results for the known transition case. Then, we extend this idea to the unknown transition case and develop a novel analysis which upper bounds the transition estimation error by the regret itself in the stochastic setting, a key property to ensure $\mathcal{O}(\log T)$ regret.