In Interactive Machine Learning (IML), we iteratively make decisions and obtain noisy observations of an unknown function. While IML methods, e.g., Bayesian optimization and active learning, have been successful in applications, on real-world systems they must provably avoid unsafe decisions. To this end, safe IML algorithms must carefully learn about a priori unknown constraints without making unsafe decisions. Existing algorithms for this problem learn about the safety of all decisions to ensure convergence. This is sample-inefficient, as it explores decisions that are not relevant for the original IML objective. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that renders any existing unsafe IML algorithm safe. Our method works as an add-on that takes suggested decisions as input and exploits regularity assumptions in terms of a Gaussian process prior in order to efficiently learn about their safety. As a result, we only explore the safe set when necessary for the IML problem. We apply our framework to safe Bayesian optimization and to safe exploration in deterministic Markov Decision Processes (MDP), which have been analyzed separately before. Our method outperforms other algorithms empirically.

Now that we now better understand what Artificial Intelligence means we can take a closer look at Machine Learning and Deep Learning and make a clearer distinguishment between these two. Machine Learning incorporates " classical" algorithms for various kinds of tasks such as clustering, regression or classification. Machine Learning algorithms must be trained on data. The more data you provide to your algorithm, the better it gets. The "training" part of a Machine Learning model means that this model tries to optimize along a certain dimension.

The problem of learning from label proportions (LLP) involves training classifiers with weak labels on bags of instances, rather than strong labels on individual instances. The weak labels only contain the label proportion of each bag. The LLP problem is important for many practical applications that only allow label proportions to be collected because of data privacy or annotation cost, and has recently received lots of research attention. Most existing works focus on extending supervised learning models to solve the LLP problem, but the weak learning nature makes it hard to further improve LLP performance with a supervised angle. In this paper, we take a different angle from semi-supervised learning. In particular, we propose a novel model inspired by consistency regularization, a popular concept in semi-supervised learning that encourages the model to produce a decision boundary that better describes the data manifold. With the introduction of consistency regularization, we further extend our study to non-uniform bag-generation and validation-based parameter-selection procedures that better match practical needs. Experiments not only justify that LLP with consistency regularization achieves superior performance, but also demonstrate the practical usability of the proposed procedures.

Interpretability is an elusive but highly sought-after characteristic of modern machine learning methods. Recent work has focused on interpretability via $\textit{explanations}$, which justify individual model predictions. In this work, we take a step towards reconciling machine explanations with those that humans produce and prefer by taking inspiration from the study of explanation in philosophy, cognitive science, and the social sciences. We identify key aspects in which these human explanations differ from current machine explanations, distill them into a list of desiderata, and formalize them into a framework via the notion of $\textit{weight of evidence}$ from information theory. Finally, we instantiate this framework in two simple applications and show it produces intuitive and comprehensible explanations.

New generation geostationary satellites make solar reflectance observations available at a continental scale with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution and spectral range. Generating quality land monitoring products requires correction of the effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption, which vary in time and space according to geometry and atmospheric composition. Many atmospheric radiative transfer models, including that of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), are too computationally complex to be run in real time, and rely on precomputed look-up tables. Additionally, uncertainty in measurements and models for remote sensing receives insufficient attention, in part due to the difficulty of obtaining sufficient ground measurements. In this paper, we present an adaptation of Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) to emulation of the MAIAC atmospheric correction algorithm. Emulation approaches learn a statistical model as an efficient approximation of a physical model, while machine learning methods have demonstrated performance in extracting spatial features and learning complex, nonlinear mappings. We demonstrate stable surface reflectance retrieval by emulation (R2 between MAIAC and emulator SR are 0.63, 0.75, 0.86, 0.84, 0.95, and 0.91 for Blue, Green, Red, NIR, SWIR1, and SWIR2 bands, respectively), accurate cloud detection (86\%), and well-calibrated, geolocated uncertainty estimates. Our results support BDL-based emulation as an accurate and efficient (up to 6x speedup) method for approximation atmospheric correction, where built-in uncertainty estimates stand to open new opportunities for model assessment and support informed use of SR-derived quantities in multiple domains.

I consider two problems in machine learning and statistics: the problem of estimating the joint probability density of a collection of random variables, known as density estimation, and the problem of inferring model parameters when their likelihood is intractable, known as likelihood-free inference. The contribution of the thesis is a set of new methods for addressing these problems that are based on recent advances in neural networks and deep learning.

Can machines trace human knowledge like humans? Knowledge tracing (KT) is a fundamental task in a wide range of applications in education, such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), intelligent tutoring systems, educational games, and learning management systems. It models dynamics in a student's knowledge states in relation to different learning concepts through their interactions with learning activities. Recently, several attempts have been made to use deep learning models for tackling the KT problem. Although these deep learning models have shown promising results, they have limitations: either lack the ability to go deeper to trace how specific concepts in a knowledge state are mastered by a student, or fail to capture long-term dependencies in an exercise sequence. In this paper, we address these limitations by proposing a novel deep learning model for knowledge tracing, namely Sequential Key-Value Memory Networks (SKVMN). This model unifies the strengths of recurrent modelling capacity and memory capacity of the existing deep learning KT models for modelling student learning. We have extensively evaluated our proposed model on five benchmark datasets. The experimental results show that (1) SKVMN outperforms the state-of-the-art KT models on all datasets, (2) SKVMN can better discover the correlation between latent concepts and questions, and (3) SKVMN can trace the knowledge state of students dynamics, and a leverage sequential dependencies in an exercise sequence for improved predication accuracy.

This paper tests the hypothesis that modeling a scene in terms of entities and their local interactions, as opposed to modeling the scene globally, provides a significant benefit in generalizing to physical tasks in a combinatorial space the learner has not encountered before. We present object-centric perception, prediction, and planning (OP3), which to the best of our knowledge is the first entity-centric dynamic latent variable framework for model-based reinforcement learning that acquires entity representations from raw visual observations without supervision and uses them to predict and plan. OP3 enforces entity-abstraction -- symmetric processing of each entity representation with the same locally-scoped function -- which enables it to scale to model different numbers and configurations of objects from those in training. Our approach to solving the key technical challenge of grounding these entity representations to actual objects in the environment is to frame this variable binding problem as an inference problem, and we developing an interactive inference algorithm that uses temporal continuity and interactive feedback to bind information about object properties to the entity variables. On block-stacking tasks, OP3 generalizes to novel block configurations and more objects than observed during training, outperforming an oracle model that assumes access to object supervision and achieving two to three times better accuracy than a state-of-the-art video prediction model.

Matrix completion is often applied to data with entries missing not at random (MNAR). For example, consider a recommendation system where users tend to only reveal ratings for items they like. In this case, a matrix completion method that relies on entries being revealed at uniformly sampled row and column indices can yield overly optimistic predictions of unseen user ratings. Recently, various papers have shown that we can reduce this bias in MNAR matrix completion if we know the probabilities of different matrix entries being missing. These probabilities are typically modeled using logistic regression or naive Bayes, which make strong assumptions and lack guarantees on the accuracy of the estimated probabilities. In this paper, we suggest a simple approach to estimating these probabilities that avoids these shortcomings. Our approach follows from the observation that missingness patterns in real data often exhibit low nuclear norm structure. We can then estimate the missingness probabilities by feeding the (always fully-observed) binary matrix specifying which entries are revealed or missing to an existing nuclear-norm-constrained matrix completion algorithm by Davenport et al. [2014]. Thus, we tackle MNAR matrix completion by solving a different matrix completion problem first that recovers missingness probabilities. We establish finite-sample error bounds for how accurate these probability estimates are and how well these estimates debias standard matrix completion losses for the original matrix to be completed. Our experiments show that the proposed debiasing strategy can improve a variety of existing matrix completion algorithms, and achieves downstream matrix completion accuracy at least as good as logistic regression and naive Bayes debiasing baselines that require additional auxiliary information.

In regression tasks, aleatoric uncertainty is commonly addressed by considering a parametric distribution of the output variable, which is based on strong assumptions such as symmetry, unimodality or by supposing a restricted shape. These assumptions are too limited in scenarios where complex shapes, strong skews or multiple modes are present. In this paper, we propose a generic deep learning framework that learns an Uncountable Mixture of Asymmetric Laplacians (UMAL), which will allow us to estimate heterogeneous distributions of the output variable and shows its connections to quantile regression. Despite having a fixed number of parameters, the model can be interpreted as an infinite mixture of components, which yields a flexible approximation for heterogeneous distributions. Apart from synthetic cases, we apply this model to room price forecasting and to predict financial operations in personal bank accounts. We demonstrate that UMAL produces proper distributions, which allows us to extract richer insights and to sharpen decision-making.