We consider the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing fidelity physical or computer experiments. We specifically address the fusion of: 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the \emph{true} field that best matches measured quantities that serves as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and can not be estimated with 100\% certainty. We employ a Bayesian framework to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially we perform a \emph{statistical correction} to the data. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. We also introduce an extension of the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with constraints to solve the same problem. Both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveal that the Bayesian method is more robust when data is scarce while capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the POD based and Bayesian approaches lead to \emph{similar} results.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LV's) provide uncertainties in prediction estimates by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between model parameters and input noise while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that, as a result, traditional inference methods may yield parameters that reconstruct observed data well but generalize poorly. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real datasets.

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization. Our approach is able to optimize over an extended set of hyper-parameters. It is also able to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters by learning a posterior distribution over them. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods under short observation sequences.

We consider the problem of aggregating models learned from sequestered, possibly heterogeneous datasets. Exploiting tools from Bayesian nonparametrics, we develop a general meta-modeling framework that learns shared global latent structures by identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations. Our proposed framework is model-independent and is applicable to a wide range of model types. After verifying our approach on simulated data, we demonstrate its utility in aggregating Gaussian topic models, hierarchical Dirichlet process based hidden Markov models, and sparse Gaussian processes with applications spanning text summarization, motion capture analysis, and temperature forecasting.

We consider Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) applied to Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), and the well-known Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm. In UCT, a tree with nodes (states) and edges (actions) is incrementally built by the expansion of nodes, and the values of nodes are updated through a backup strategy based on the average value of child nodes. However, it has been shown that with enough samples the maximum operator yields more accurate node value estimates than averaging. Instead of settling for one of these value estimates, we go a step further proposing a novel backup strategy which uses the power mean operator, which computes a value between the average and maximum value. We call our new approach Power-UCT and argue how the use of the power mean operator helps to speed up the learning in MCTS. We theoretically analyze our method providing guarantees of convergence to the optimum. Moreover, we discuss a heuristic approach to balance the greediness of backups by tuning the power mean operator according to the number of visits to each node. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in well-known MDP and POMDP benchmarks, showing significant improvement in performance and convergence speed w.r.t. UCT.

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Probability is a measure of uncertainty. Probability applies to machine learning because in the real world, we need to make decisions with incomplete information. Hence, we need a mechanism to quantify uncertainty – which Probability provides us. Using probability, we can model elements of uncertainty such as risk in financial transactions and many other business processes. In contrast, in traditional programming, we work with deterministic problems i.e. the solution is not affected by uncertainty.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of $\textit{confidence}$ typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) has emerged as an approach for characterizing, identifying, and learning with noisy labels in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Here, we generalize CL, building on the assumption of a classification noise process, to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This generalized CL, open-sourced as $\texttt{cleanlab}$, is provably consistent under reasonable conditions, and experimentally performant on ImageNet and CIFAR, outperforming recent approaches, e.g. MentorNet, by $30\%$ or more, when label noise is non-uniform. $\texttt{cleanlab}$ also quantifies ontological class overlap, and can increase model accuracy (e.g. ResNet) by providing clean data for training.

Emotion recognition is a classic field of research with a typical setup extracting features and feeding them through a classifier for prediction. On the other hand, generative models jointly capture the distributional relationship between emotions and the feature profiles. Relatively recently, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have surfaced as a new class of generative models and have shown considerable success in modeling distributions in the fields of computer vision and natural language understanding. In this work, we experiment with variants of GAN architectures to generate feature vectors corresponding to an emotion in two ways: (i) A generator is trained with samples from a mixture prior. Each mixture component corresponds to an emotional class and can be sampled to generate features from the corresponding emotion. (ii) A one-hot vector corresponding to an emotion can be explicitly used to generate the features. We perform analysis on such models and also propose different metrics used to measure the performance of the GAN models in their ability to generate realistic synthetic samples. Apart from evaluation on a given dataset of interest, we perform a cross-corpus study where we study the utility of the synthetic samples as additional training data in low resource conditions.

Inferring the most likely configuration for a subset of variables of a joint distribution given the remaining ones - which we refer to as co-generation - is an important challenge that is computationally demanding for all but the simplest settings. This task has received a considerable amount of attention, particularly for classical ways of modeling distributions like structured prediction. In contrast, almost nothing is known about this task when considering recently proposed techniques for modeling high-dimensional distributions, particularly generative adversarial nets (GANs). Therefore, in this paper, we study the occurring challenges for co-generation with GANs. To address those challenges we develop an annealed importance sampling based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo co-generation algorithm. The presented approach significantly outperforms classical gradient based methods on a synthetic and on the CelebA and LSUN datasets.