We develop a real-time anomaly detection algorithm for directed activity on large, sparse networks. We model the propensity for future activity using a dynamic logistic model with interaction terms for sender- and receiver-specific latent factors in addition to sender- and receiver-specific popularity scores; deviations from this underlying model constitute potential anomalies. Latent nodal attributes are estimated via a variational Bayesian approach and may change over time, representing natural shifts in network activity. Estimation is augmented with a case-control approximation to take advantage of the sparsity of the network and reduces computational complexity from $O(N^2)$ to $O(E)$, where $N$ is the number of nodes and $E$ is the number of observed edges. We run our algorithm on network event records collected from an enterprise network of over 25,000 computers and are able to identify a red team attack with half the detection rate required of the model without latent interaction terms.

Now that we now better understand what Artificial Intelligence means we can take a closer look at Machine Learning and Deep Learning and make a clearer distinguishment between these two. Machine Learning incorporates " classical" algorithms for various kinds of tasks such as clustering, regression or classification. Machine Learning algorithms must be trained on data. The more data you provide to your algorithm, the better it gets. The "training" part of a Machine Learning model means that this model tries to optimize along a certain dimension.

Conditional Random Fields (CRF) are frequently applied for labeling and segmenting sequence data. Morency et al. (2007) introduced hidden state variables in a labeled CRF structure in order to model the latent dynamics within class labels, thus improving the labeling performance. Such a model is known as Latent-Dynamic CRF (LDCRF). We present Factored LDCRF (FLDCRF), a structure that allows multiple latent dynamics of the class labels to interact with each other. Including such latent-dynamic interactions leads to improved labeling performance on single-label and multi-label sequence modeling tasks. We apply our FLDCRF models on two single-label (one nested cross-validation) and one multi-label sequence tagging (nested cross-validation) experiments across two different datasets - UCI gesture phase data and UCI opportunity data. FLDCRF outperforms all state-of-the-art sequence models, i.e., CRF, LDCRF, LSTM, LSTM-CRF, Factorial CRF, Coupled CRF and a multi-label LSTM model in all our experiments. In addition, LSTM based models display inconsistent performance across validation and test data, and pose diffculty to select models on validation data during our experiments. FLDCRF offers easier model selection, consistency across validation and test performance and lucid model intuition. FLDCRF is also much faster to train compared to LSTM, even without a GPU. FLDCRF outshines the best LSTM model by ~4% on a single-label task on UCI gesture phase data and outperforms LSTM performance by ~2% on average across nested cross-validation test sets on the multi-label sequence tagging experiment on UCI opportunity data. The idea of FLDCRF can be extended to joint (multi-agent interactions) and heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) state space models.

When dealing with imbalanced classes, we may need to do some extra work and planning to make sure that our algorithms give us useful results. In this blog, I examine just two classification techniques to illustrate the issue, but you should know that the problem generalizes. For good reason, supervised classification algorithms -- which use labeled data -- take class distributions into account. However, when we're trying to detect classes that are important, but rare compared to the alternatives, it can be difficult to develop a model that catches them. Here, after diving into the problem with some examples, I outline a few of the tried and true techniques for solving it.

The darknet markets are notorious black markets in cyberspace, which involve selling or brokering drugs, weapons, stolen credit cards, and other illicit goods. To combat illicit transactions in the cyberspace, it is important to analyze the behaviors of participants in darknet markets. Currently, many studies focus on studying the behavior of vendors. However, there is no much work on analyzing buyers. The key challenge is that the buyers are anonymized in darknet markets. For most of the darknet markets, We only observe the first and last digits of a buyer's ID, such as ``a**b''. To tackle this challenge, we propose a hidden buyer identification model, called UNMIX, which can group the transactions from one hidden buyer into one cluster given a transaction sequence from an anonymized ID. UNMIX is able to model the temporal dynamics information as well as the product, comment, and vendor information associated with each transaction. As a result, the transactions with similar patterns in terms of time and content group together as the subsequence from one hidden buyer. Experiments on the data collected from three real-world darknet markets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach measured by various clustering metrics. Case studies on real transaction sequences explicitly show that our approach can group transactions with similar patterns into the same clusters.

In this article, we propose a novel probabilistic framework to improve the accuracy of a weighted majority voting algorithm. In order to assign higher weights to the classifiers which can correctly classify hard-to-classify instances, we introduce the Item Response Theory (IRT) framework to evaluate the samples' difficulty and classifiers' ability simultaneously. Three models are created with different assumptions suitable for different cases. When making an inference, we keep a balance between the accuracy and complexity. In our experiment, all the base models are constructed by single trees via bootstrap. To explain the models, we illustrate how the IRT ensemble model constructs the classifying boundary. We also compare their performance with other widely used methods and show that our model performs well on 19 datasets.

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system dynamics should be contractive on the average with respect to the Lyapunov function and large enough small sets should exist with large enough minorization constants. We also establish that a law of large numbers holds for bounded functionals of the process. Applications to queuing systems and to machine learning algorithms are presented.

Current adoption of machine learning in industrial, societal and economical activities has raised concerns about the fairness, equity and ethics of automated decisions. Predictive models are often developed using biased datasets and thus retain or even exacerbate biases in their decisions and recommendations. Removing the sensitive covariates, such as gender or race, is insufficient to remedy this issue since the biases may be retained due to other related covariates. We present a regularization approach to this problem that trades off predictive accuracy of the learned models (with respect to biased labels) for the fairness in terms of statistical parity, i.e. independence of the decisions from the sensitive covariates. In particular, we consider a general framework of regularized empirical risk minimization over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and impose an additional regularizer of dependence between predictors and sensitive covariates using kernel-based measures of dependence, namely the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) and its normalized version. This approach leads to a closed-form solution in the case of squared loss, i.e. ridge regression. Moreover, we show that the dependence regularizer has an interpretation as modifying the corresponding Gaussian process (GP) prior. As a consequence, a GP model with a prior that encourages fairness to sensitive variables can be derived, allowing principled hyperparameter selection and studying of the relative relevance of covariates under fairness constraints. Experimental results in synthetic examples and in real problems of income and crime prediction illustrate the potential of the approach to improve fairness of automated decisions.

Maximising the detection of intrusions is a fundamental and often critical aim of perimeter surveillance. Commonly, this requires a decision-maker to optimally allocate multiple searchers to segments of the perimeter. We consider a scenario where the decision-maker may sequentially update the searchers' allocation, learning from the observed data to improve decisions over time. In this work we propose a formal model and solution methods for this sequential perimeter surveillance problem. Our model is a combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) with Poisson rewards and a novel filtered feedback mechanism - arising from the failure to detect certain intrusions. Our solution method is an upper confidence bound approach and we derive upper and lower bounds on its expected performance. We prove that the gap between these bounds is of constant order, and demonstrate empirically that our approach is more reliable in simulated problems than competing algorithms.

-- T o solve multi-step manipulation tasks in the real world, an autonomous robot must take actions to observe its environment and react to unexpected observations. This may require opening a drawer to observe its contents or moving an object out of the way to examine the space behind it. If the robot fails to detect an important object, it must update its belief about the world and compute a new plan of action. Additionally, a robot that acts noisily will never exactly arrive at a desired state. Still, it is important that the robot adjusts accordingly in order to keep making progress towards achieving the goal. In this work, we present an online planning and execution system for robots faced with these kinds of challenges. Our approach is able to efficiently solve partially observable problems both in simulation and in a real-world kitchen. Robots acting autonomously in human environments are faced with a variety of challenges. First, they must make both discrete decisions about what object to manipulate as well as continuous decisions about which motions to execute to achieve a desired interaction. Planning in these large hybrid spaces is the subject of integrated T ask and Motion Planning (T AMP) [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6].