Information theory provides a mathematical foundation to measure uncertainty in belief. Belief is represented by a probability distribution that captures our understanding of an outcome's plausibility. Information measures based on Shannon's concept of entropy include realization information, Kullback-Leibler divergence, Lindley's information in experiment, cross entropy, and mutual information. We derive a general theory of information from first principles that accounts for evolving belief and recovers all of these measures. Rather than simply gauging uncertainty, information is understood in this theory to measure change in belief. We may then regard entropy as the information we expect to gain upon realization of a discrete latent random variable. This theory of information is compatible with the Bayesian paradigm in which rational belief is updated as evidence becomes available. Furthermore, this theory admits novel measures of information with well-defined properties, which we explore in both analysis and experiment. This view of information illuminates the study of machine learning by allowing us to quantify information captured by a predictive model and distinguish it from residual information contained in training data. We gain related insights regarding feature selection, anomaly detection, and novel Bayesian approaches.

ABSTRACT Predicting smartphone users activity using WiFi fingerprints has been a popular approach for indoor positioning in recent years. However, such a high dimensional time-series prediction problem can be very tricky to solve. To address this issue, we propose a novel deep learning model, the convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network (CMDRNN), which combines the strengths of convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and mixture density networks. In our model, the CNN sub-model is employed to detect the feature of the high dimensional input, the RNN sub-model is utilized to capture the time dependency and the MDN sub-model is for predicting the final output. For validation, we conduct the experiments on the real-world dataset and the obtained results illustrate the effectiveness of our method.

Making the right decisions when some of the state variables are hidden, involves reasoning about all the possible states of the environment. An agent receiving only partial observations needs to infer the true values of these hidden variables based on the history of experiences. Recent deep reinforcement learning methods use recurrent models to keep track of past information. However, these models are sometimes expensive to train and have convergence difficulties, especially when dealing with high dimensional input spaces. Taking inspiration from influence-based abstraction, we show that effective policies can be learned in the presence of uncertainty by only memorizing a small subset of input variables. We also incorporate a mechanism in our network that learns to automatically choose the important pieces of information that need to be remembered. The results indicate that, by forcing the agent's internal memory to focus on the selected regions while treating the rest of the observable variables as Markovian, we can outperform ordinary recurrent architectures in situations where the amount of information that the agent needs to retain represents a small fraction of the entire observation input. The method also reduces training time and obtains better scores than methods that stack multiple observations to remove partial observability in domains where long-term memory is required.

This paper presents a novel incremental learning algorithm for pedestrian motion prediction, with the ability to improve the learned model over time when data is incrementally available. In this setup, trajectories are modeled as simple segments called motion primitives. Transitions between motion primitives are modeled as Gaussian Processes. When new data is available, the motion primitives learned from the new data are compared with the previous ones by measuring the inner product of the motion primitive vectors. Similar motion primitives and transitions are fused and novel motion primitives are added to capture newly observed behaviors. The proposed approach is tested and compared with other baselines in intersection scenarios where the data is incrementally available either from a single intersection or from multiple intersections with different geometries. In both cases, our method incrementally learns motion patterns and outperforms the offline learning approach in terms of prediction errors. The results also show that the model size in our algorithm grows at a much lower rate than standard incremental learning, where newly learned motion primitives and transitions are simply accumulated over time.

Unstructured enterprise data such as reports, manuals and guidelines often contain tables. The traditional way of integrating data from these tables is through a two-step process of table detection/extraction and mapping the table layouts to an appropriate schema. This can be an expensive process. In this paper we show that by using semantic technologies (RDF/SPARQL and database dependencies) paired with a simple but powerful way to transform tables with non-relational layouts, it is possible to offer query answering services over these tables with minimal manual work or domain-specific mappings. Our method enables users to exploit data in tables embedded in documents with little effort, not only for simple retrieval queries, but also for structured queries that require joining multiple interrelated tables.

Learning and planning in partially-observable domains is one of the most difficult problems in reinforcement learning. Traditional methods consider these two problems as independent, resulting in a classical two-stage paradigm: first learn the environment dynamics and then plan accordingly. This approach, however, disconnects the two problems and can consequently lead to algorithms that are sample inefficient and time consuming. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm that combines learning and planning together. Our algorithm is closely related to the spectral learning algorithm for predicitive state representations and offers appealing theoretical guarantees and time complexity. We empirically show on two domains that our approach is more sample and time efficient compared to classical methods.

Effective techniques for eliciting user preferences have taken on added importance as recommender systems (RSs) become increasingly interactive and conversational. A common and conceptually appealing Bayesian criterion for selecting queries is expected value of information (EVOI) . Unfortunately, it is computationally prohibitive to construct queries with maximum EVOI in RSs with large item spaces. We tackle this issue by introducing a continuous formulation of EVOI as a differentiable network that can be optimized using gradient methods available in modern machine learning (ML) computational frameworks (e.g., TensorFlow, PyTorch). We exploit this to develop a novel, scalable Monte Carlo method for EVOI optimization, which is more scalable for large item spaces than methods requiring explicit enumeration of items. While we emphasize the use of this approach for pairwise (or k -wise) comparisons of items, we also demonstrate how our method can be adapted to queries involving subsets of item attributes or "partial items," which are often more cognitively manageable for users. Experiments show that our gradient-based EVOI technique achieves state-of-the-art performance across several domains while scaling to large item spaces.

We consider the problem of identifying universal low-dimensional features from high-dimensional data for inference tasks in settings involving learning. For such problems, we introduce natural notions of universality and we show a local equivalence among them. Our analysis is naturally expressed via information geometry, and represents a conceptually and computationally useful analysis. The development reveals the complementary roles of the singular value decomposition, Hirschfeld-Gebelein-R\'enyi maximal correlation, the canonical correlation and principle component analyses of Hotelling and Pearson, Tishby's information bottleneck, Wyner's common information, Ky Fan $k$-norms, and Brieman and Friedman's alternating conditional expectations algorithm. We further illustrate how this framework facilitates understanding and optimizing aspects of learning systems, including multinomial logistic (softmax) regression and the associated neural network architecture, matrix factorization methods for collaborative filtering and other applications, rank-constrained multivariate linear regression, and forms of semi-supervised learning.

Often the development of novel materials is not amenable to high-throughput or purely computational screening methods. Instead, materials must be synthesized one at a time in a process that does not generate significant amounts of data. One way this method can be improved is by ensuring that each experiment provides the best improvement in both material properties and predictive modeling accuracy. In this work, we study the effectiveness of active learning, which optimizes the order of experiments, and meta learning, which transfers knowledge from one context to another, to reduce the number of experiments necessary to build a predictive model. We present a novel multi-task benchmark database of peptides designed to advance active, few-shot, and meta-learning methods for experimental design. Each task is binary classification of peptides represented as a sequence string. We show results of standard active learning and meta-learning methods across these datasets to assess their ability to improve predictive models with the fewest number of experiments. We find the ensemble query by committee active learning method to be effective. The meta-learning method Reptile was found to improve accuracy. The robustness of these conclusions were tested across multiple model choices.

It is a particularly well-suited approach to better understand the underlying structure of data when scientific understanding of the data is at an early stage. BN modelling is designed to sort out directly from indirectly related variables and offers a far richer modelling framework than classical approaches in epidemiology like, e.g., regression techniques or extensions thereof. In contrast to structural equation modelling (Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson, Tatham et al. 1998), which requires expert knowledge to design the model, the Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) method is a data-driven approach (Lewis and Ward 2013; Kratzer, Pittavino, Lewis, and Furrer 2019b). It does not rely on expert knowledge, but it can possiarXiv:1911.09006v1