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Bayesian hybrid models fuse physics-based insights with machine learning constructs to correct for systematic bias. In this paper, we compare Bayesian hybrid models against physics-based glass-box and Gaussian process black-box surrogate models. We consider ballistic firing as an illustrative case study for a Bayesian decision-making workflow. First, Bayesian calibration is performed to estimate model parameters. We then use the posterior distribution from Bayesian analysis to compute optimal firing conditions to hit a target via a single-stage stochastic program. The case study demonstrates the ability of Bayesian hybrid models to overcome systematic bias from missing physics with less data than the pure machine learning approach. Ultimately, we argue Bayesian hybrid models are an emerging paradigm for data-informed decision-making under parametric and epistemic uncertainty.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where the aim is to estimate the performance of a new policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy, or policies. In particular, we introduce a novel doubly-robust estimator for the OPE problem in RL, based on the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation principle from the statistical causal inference literature. We also introduce several variance reduction techniques that lead to impressive performance gains in off-policy evaluation. We show empirically that our estimator uniformly wins over existing off-policy evaluation methods across multiple RL environments and various levels of model misspecification. Finally, we further the existing theoretical analysis of estimators for the RL off-policy estimation problem by showing their $O_P(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate of convergence and characterizing their asymptotic distribution.

While policy-based reinforcement learning (RL) achieves tremendous successes in practice, it is significantly less understood in theory, especially compared with value-based RL. In particular, it remains elusive how to design a provably efficient policy optimization algorithm that incorporates exploration. To bridge such a gap, this paper proposes an Optimistic variant of the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm (OPPO), which follows an "optimistic version" of the policy gradient direction. This paper proves that, in the problem of episodic Markov decision process with linear function approximation, unknown transition, and adversarial reward with full-information feedback, OPPO achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d^3 H^3 T})$ regret. Here $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the episode horizon, and $T$ is the total number of steps. To the best of our knowledge, OPPO is the first provably efficient policy optimization algorithm that explores.

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been established as a safer way to do updates from prior to posterior in the presence of model misspecification. At one extreme tempering can ignore the data altogether and at the other extreme it provides the standard Bayes' update when no misspecification is assumed to be present. However, it is an open issue how to best recognize misspecification and choose a suitable level of tempering without access to the true generating model. Here we show how probabilistic classifiers can be employed to resolve this issue. By training a probabilistic classifier to discriminate between simulated and observed data provides an estimate of the ratio between the model likelihood and the likelihood of the data under the unobserved true generative process, within the discriminatory abilities of the classifier. The expectation of the logarithm of a ratio with respect to the data generating process gives an estimation of the negative Kullback-Leibler divergence between the statistical generative model and the true generative distribution. Using a set of canonical examples we show that this divergence provides a useful misspecification diagnostic, a model comparison tool, and a method to inform a generalised Bayesian update in the presence of misspecification for likelihood-based models.

While Bayesian neural networks have many appealing characteristics, current priors do not easily allow users to specify basic properties such as expected lengthscale or amplitude variance. In this work, we introduce Poisson Process Radial Basis Function Networks, a novel prior that is able to encode amplitude stationarity and input-dependent lengthscale. We prove that our novel formulation allows for a decoupled specification of these properties, and that the estimated regression function is consistent as the number of observations tends to infinity. We demonstrate its behavior on synthetic and real examples.

The ability to inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior is key to developing personalized human-interacting machine learning systems. Approaches to infer such traits range from surveys to manually-constructed experiments and games. However, these traditional games are limited because they are typically designed based on heuristics. In this paper, we formulate the task of designing \emph{behavior diagnostic games} that elicit distinguishable behavior as a mutual information maximization problem, which can be solved by optimizing a variational lower bound. Our framework is instantiated by using prospect theory to model varying player traits, and Markov Decision Processes to parameterize the games. We validate our approach empirically, showing that our designed games can successfully distinguish among players with different traits, outperforming manually-designed ones by a large margin.

Before choosing a machine learning algorithm, it's important to know their characteristics to generate desired outputs and build smart systems. Data science is growing super fast. As the demand for AI-enabled solutions is increasing, delivering smarter systems for industries has become essential. And the correctness and efficiency through machine learning operations must be fulfilled to ensure the developed solutions complete all demands. Hence, applying machine learning algorithms on the given dataset to produce righteous results and train the intelligent system is one of the most essential steps from the entire process.

Research has found that many occupational accidents are foreseeable, being the result of people's unsafe behaviour from a retrospective point of view. The prediction of workers' safety behaviour will enable the prior insights into each worker's behavioural tendency and will be useful in the design of management practices prior to the occurrence of accidents and contribute to the reduction of injury rates. In recent years, researchers have found that people do have stable predispositions to engage in certain safety behavioural patterns which vary among individuals as a function of personality features. In this study, an innovative forecasting model, which employs machine learning algorithms, is developed to estimate construction workers' behavioural tendency based on the Big Five personality taxonomy. The data-driven nature of machine learning technique enabled a reliable estimate of the personality-safety behaviour relationship, which allowed this study to provide novel insight that nonlinearity may exist in the relationship between construction workers' personality traits and safety behaviour. The developed model is found to be sufficient to have satisfactory accuracy in explaining and predicting workers' safety behaviour. This finding provides the empirical evidence to support the usefulness of personality traits as effective predictors of people's safety behaviour at work. In addition, this study could have practical implications. The machine learning model developed can help identify vulnerable workers who are more prone to undertake unsafe behaviours, which is proven to have good prediction accuracy and is thereby potentially useful for decision making and safety management on construction sites.

Despite their successes, deep neural networks still make unreliable predictions when faced with test data drawn from a distribution different to that of the training data, constituting a major problem for AI safety. While this motivated a recent surge in interest in developing methods to detect such out-of-distribution (OoD) inputs, a robust solution is still lacking. We propose a new probabilistic, unsupervised approach to this problem based on a Bayesian variational autoencoder model, which estimates a full posterior distribution over the decoder parameters using stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo, instead of fitting a point estimate. We describe how information-theoretic measures based on this posterior can then be used to detect OoD data both in input space as well as in the model's latent space. The effectiveness of our approach is empirically demonstrated.