There has been considerable advance in understanding the properties of sparse regularization procedures in high-dimensional models. Most of the work is limited to either independent and identically distributed setting, or time series with independent and/or (sub-)Gaussian innovations. We extend current literature to a broader set of innovation processes, by assuming that the error process is non-sub-Gaussian and conditionally heteroscedastic, and the generating process is not necessarily sparse. This setting covers fat tailed, conditionally dependent innovations which is of particular interest for financial risk modeling. It covers several multivariate-GARCH specifications, such as the BEKK model, and other factor stochastic volatility specifications.

Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous works on theoretical properties of spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and analyses, and thus can not be generalized directly. In this paper, we propose a class of generic spike-and-slab priors and develop a unified framework to rigorously assess their theoretical properties. Technically, we provide general conditions under which generic spike-and-slab priors can achieve a nearly-optimal posterior contraction rate and model selection consistency. Our results include those of Castillo et al. (2015) and Narisetty and He (2014) as special cases.

Machine Learning (ML) is widely used for several tasks with time-series and biosensor data such as for human activity recognition, electronic health records data-based predictions (Ismail Fawaz et al., 2019), and real-time bionsensor-based decisions. V arious classification goals are addressed related to electrocardiography (ECG) (Jambukia et al., 2015), elec-troencephalography (EEG) (Craik et al., 2019; Dose et al., 2018), and electromyograpy (EMG) (Ketyk et al., 2019; Hu et al., 2018; Patricia et al., 2014; Du et al., 2017). Sensing hand gestures can be done by means of wearables or by means of image or video analysis of hand or finger motion. A wearable-based detection can physically rely on measuring the acceleration and rotations of our body parts (arms, hands or fingers) with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensors or by measuring the myo-electric signals generated by the various muscles of our arms or fingers with EMG sensors. Surface EMG (sEMG) records muscle activity from the surface of the skin which is above the muscle being evaluated. The signal is collected via surface electrodes. We are interested in sEMG-sensor placement to the forearm and performing hand gesture recognition with ML.

We present a general method for fitting finite mixture models (FMM). Learning in a mixture model consists of finding the most likely cluster assignment for each data-point, as well as finding the parameters of the clusters themselves. In many mixture models, this is difficult with current learning methods, where the most common approach is to employ monotone learning algorithms e.g. the conventional expectation-maximisation algorithm. While effective, the success of any monotone algorithm is crucially dependant on good parameter initialisation, where a common choice is $K$-means initialisation, commonly employed for Gaussian mixture models. For other types of mixture models, the path to good initialisation parameters is often unclear and may require a problem-specific solution. To this end, we propose a general heuristic learning algorithm that utilises Boltzmann exploration to assign each observation to a specific base distribution within the mixture model, which we call Boltzmann exploration expectation-maximisation (BEEM). With BEEM, hard assignments allow straight forward parameter learning for each base distribution by conditioning only on its assigned observations. Consequently, it can be applied to mixtures of any base distribution where single component parameter learning is tractable. The stochastic learning procedure is able to escape local optima and is thus insensitive to parameter initialisation. We show competitive performance on a number of synthetic benchmark cases as well as on real-world datasets.

However, there are several practical considerations in the choice of meta-learning algorithm which can influence the computational efficiency and overall performance of MOCA. For the experiments in this paper, we leverage two meta-learning algorithms which offer a clean Bayesian learning interpretation, relatively low-dimensional posterior statistics, recursive updates for these statistics, and computationally efficient likelihood evaluation under the posterior predictive. For regression experiments, we use ALPaCA (Harrison et al., 2018); for classification experiments, we use a novel algorithm based on similar Bayesian updates which we refer to as PCOC, for probabilistic clustering for online classification. For completeness, we offer a high level overview of these algorithms and show how they fit into the MOCA framework in the following subsections.

To restore the historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) better, it is important to construct a good calibration model for the associated proxies. In this paper, we introduce a new model for alkenone (${\rm{U}}_{37}^{\rm{K}'}$) based on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (GP) regression method. Our nonparametric approach not only deals with the variable pattern of noises over SSTs but also contains a Bayesian method of classifying potential outliers.

Many inferential and learning tasks can be accomplished efficiently by means of distributed optimization algorithms where the network topology plays a critical role in driving the local interactions among neighboring agents. There is a large body of literature examining the effect of the graph structure on the performance of optimization strategies. In this article, we examine the inverse problem and consider the reverse question: How much information does observing the behavior at the nodes convey about the underlying network structure used for optimization? Over large-scale networks, the difficulty of addressing such inverse questions (or problems) is compounded by the fact that usually only a limited portion of nodes can be probed, giving rise to a second important question: Despite the presence of several unobserved nodes, are partial and local observations still sufficient to discover the graph linking the probed nodes? The article surveys recent advances on this inverse learning problem and related questions. Examples of applications are provided to illustrate how the interplay between graph learning and distributed optimization arises in practice, e.g., in cognitive engineered systems such as distributed detection, or in other real-world problems such as the mechanism of opinion formation over social networks and the mechanism of coordination in biological networks. A unifying framework for examining the reconstruction error will be described, which allows to devise and examine various estimation strategies enabling successful graph learning. The relevance of specific network attributes, such as sparsity versus density of connections, and node degree concentration, is discussed in relation to the topology inference goal. It is shown how universal (i.e., data-driven) clustering algorithms can be exploited to solve the graph learning problem.

This paper introduces Tree-Pyramidal Adaptive Importance Sampling (TP-AIS), a novel iterated sampling method that outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. TP-AIS iteratively builds a proposal distribution parameterized by a tree pyramid, where each tree leaf spans a convex subspace and represents it's importance density. After each new sample operation, a set of tree leaves are subdivided improving the approximation of the proposal distribution to the target density. Unlike the rest of the methods in the literature, TP-AIS is parameter free and requires zero manual tuning to achieve its best performance. Our proposed method is evaluated with different complexity randomized target probability density functions and also analyze its application to different dimensions. The results are compared to state-of-the-art iterative importance sampling approaches and other baseline MCMC approaches using Normalized Effective Sample Size (N-ESS), Jensen-Shannon Divergence to the target posterior, and time complexity.

Advances in artificial intelligence have renewed interest in conversational agents. Additionally to software developers, today all kinds of employees show interest in new technologies and their possible applications for customers. German insurance companies generally are interested in improving their customer service and digitizing their business processes. In this work we investigate the potential use of conversational agents in insurance companies theoretically by determining which classes of agents exist which are of interest to insurance companies, finding relevant use cases and requirements. We add two practical parts: First we develop a showcase prototype for an exemplary insurance scenario in claim management. Additionally in a second step, we create a prototype focusing on customer service in a chatbot hackathon, fostering innovation in interdisciplinary teams. In this work, we describe the results of both prototypes in detail. We evaluate both chatbots defining criteria for both settings in detail and compare the results and draw conclusions for the maturity of chatbot technology for practical use, describing the opportunities and challenges companies, especially small and medium enterprises, face.

There are over 15 distinct communities that work in the general area of sequential decisions and information, often referred to as decisions under uncertainty or stochastic optimization. We focus on two of the most important fields: stochastic optimal control, with its roots in deterministic optimal control, and reinforcement learning, with its roots in Markov decision processes. Building on prior work, we describe a unified framework that covers all 15 different communities, and note the strong parallels with the modeling framework of stochastic optimal control. By contrast, we make the case that the modeling framework of reinforcement learning, inherited from discrete Markov decision processes, is quite limited. Our framework (and that of stochastic control) is based on the core problem of optimizing over policies. We describe four classes of policies that we claim are universal, and show that each of these two fields have, in their own way, evolved to include examples of each of these four classes.