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 Learning Graphical Models


Survey of Deep Reinforcement Learning for Motion Planning of Autonomous Vehicles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Academic research in the field of autonomous vehicles has reached high popularity in recent years related to several topics as sensor technologies, V2X communications, safety, security, decision making, control, and even legal and standardization rules. Besides classic control design approaches, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning methods are present in almost all of these fields. Another part of research focuses on different layers of Motion Planning, such as strategic decisions, trajectory planning, and control. A wide range of techniques in Machine Learning itself have been developed, and this article describes one of these fields, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). The paper provides insight into the hierarchical motion planning problem and describes the basics of DRL. The main elements of designing such a system are the modeling of the environment, the modeling abstractions, the description of the state and the perception models, the appropriate rewarding, and the realization of the underlying neural network. The paper describes vehicle models, simulation possibilities and computational requirements. Strategic decisions on different layers and the observation models, e.g., continuous and discrete state representations, grid-based, and camera-based solutions are presented. The paper surveys the state-of-art solutions systematized by the different tasks and levels of autonomous driving, such as car-following, lane-keeping, trajectory following, merging, or driving in dense traffic. Finally, open questions and future challenges are discussed.


Finite-time Analysis of Kullback-Leibler Upper Confidence Bounds for Optimal Adaptive Allocation with Multiple Plays and Markovian Rewards

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study an extension of the classic stochastic multi-armed bandit problem which involves Markovian rewards and multiple plays. In order to tackle this problem we consider an index based adaptive allocation rule which at each stage combines calculations of sample means, and of upper confidence bounds, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, for the stationary expected reward of Markovian arms. For rewards generated from a one-parameter exponential family of Markov chains, we provide a finite-time upper bound for the regret incurred from this adaptive allocation rule, which reveals the logarithmic dependence of the regret on the time horizon, and which is asymptotically optimal. For our analysis we devise several concentration results for Markov chains, including a maximal inequality for Markov chains, that may be of interest in their own right. As a byproduct of our analysis we also establish, asymptotically optimal, finite-time guarantees for the case of multiple plays, and IID rewards drawn from a one-parameter exponential family of probability densities.


Maximum likelihood estimation and uncertainty quantification for Gaussian process approximation of deterministic functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the dataset. This article provides one of the first theoretical analyses in the context of Gaussian process regression with a noiseless dataset. Specifically, we consider the scenario where the scale parameter of a Sobolev kernel (such as a Mat\'ern kernel) is estimated by maximum likelihood. We show that the maximum likelihood estimation of the scale parameter alone provides significant adaptation against misspecification of the Gaussian process model in the sense that the model can become "slowly" overconfident at worst, regardless of the difference between the smoothness of the data-generating function and that expected by the model. The analysis is based on a combination of techniques from nonparametric regression and scattered data interpolation. Empirical results are provided in support of the theoretical findings.


On Constraint Definability in Tractable Probabilistic Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Incorporating constraints is a major concern in probabilistic machine learning. A wide variety of problems require predictions to be integrated with reasoning about constraints, from modelling routes on maps to approving loan predictions. In the former, we may require the prediction model to respect the presence of physical paths between the nodes on the map, and in the latter, we may require that the prediction model respect fairness constraints that ensure that outcomes are not subject to bias. Broadly speaking, constraints may be probabilistic, logical or causal, but the overarching challenge is to determine if and how a model can be learnt that handles all the declared constraints. To the best of our knowledge, this is largely an open problem. In this paper, we consider a mathematical inquiry on how the learning of tractable probabilistic models, such as sum-product networks, is possible while incorporating constraints.


stream-learn -- open-source Python library for difficult data stream batch analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

stream-learn is a Python package compatible with scikit-learn and developed for the drifting and imbalanced data stream analysis. I ts main component is a stream generator, which allows to produce a synthet ic data stream that may incorporate each of the three main concept drift typ es (i.e. The package allows conducting experiments following estab lished evaluation methodologies (i.e. In addition, estimators adapted for data stream classification have been implem ented, including both simple classifiers and state-of-art chunk-based and online classifier ensembles. To improve computational efficiency, package utili ses its own implementations of prediction metrics for imbalanced binary cla ssification tasks. Keywords: Data stream, Concept drift, Imbalanced data, Dynamic class imbalance 1. Motivation and significance Pattern recognition research increasingly goes beyond the usual pattern of building classification models on stationary data sets an d focuses on data stream processing where class distributions, and hence als o decision boundaries, may change over time [1].


Improving Language Identification for Multilingual Speakers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

ABSTRACT Spoken language identification (LID) technologies have improved in recent years from discriminating largely distinct languages to discriminating highly similar languages or even dialects of the same language. One aspect that has been mostly neglected, however, is discrimination of languages for multilingual speakers, despite being a primary target audience of many systems that utilize LID technologies. As we show in this work, LID systems can have a high average accuracy for most combinations of languages while greatly underper-forming for others when accented speech is present. We address this by using coarser-grained targets for the acoustic LID model and integrating its outputs with interaction context signals in a context-aware model to tailor the system to each user. This combined system achieves an average 97% accuracy across all language combinations while improving worst-case accuracy by over 60% relative to our baseline.


The Case for Bayesian Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many different but high performing models corresponding to different settings of parameters, which is exactly when marginalization will make the biggest difference for both calibration and accuracy. (2) Deep ensembles have been mistaken as competing approaches to Bayesian methods, but can be seen as approximate Bayesian marginalization. (3) The structure of neural networks gives rise to a structured prior in function space, which reflects the inductive biases of neural networks that help them generalize. (4) The observed correlation between parameters in flat regions of the loss and a diversity of solutions that provide good generalization is further conducive to Bayesian marginalization, as flat regions occupy a large volume in a high dimensional space, and each different solution will make a good contribution to a Bayesian model average. (5) Recent practical advances for Bayesian deep learning provide improvements in accuracy and calibration compared to standard training, while retaining scalability.


Efficient Probabilistic Logic Reasoning with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs), which elegantly combine logic rules and probabilistic graphical models, can be used to address many knowledge graph problems. However, inference in MLN is computationally intensive, making the industrial-scale application of MLN very difficult. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as efficient and effective tools for large-scale graph problems. Nevertheless, GNNs do not explicitly incorporate prior logic rules into the models, and may require many labeled examples for a target task. In this paper, we explore the combination of MLNs and GNNs, and use graph neural networks for variational inference in MLN. We propose a GNN variant, named ExpressGNN, which strikes a nice balance between the representation power and the simplicity of the model. Our extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that ExpressGNN leads to effective and efficient probabilistic logic reasoning.


Bayesian Reasoning with Deep-Learned Knowledge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We access the internalized understanding of trained, deep neural networks to perform Bayesian reasoning on complex tasks. Independently trained networks are arranged to jointly answer questions outside their original scope, which are formulated in terms of a Bayesian inference problem. We solve this approximately with variational inference, which provides uncertainty on the outcomes. We demonstrate how following tasks can be approached this way: Combining independently trained networks to sample from a conditional generator, solving riddles involving multiple constraints simultaneously, and combine deep-learned knowledge with conventional noisy measurements in the context of high-resolution images of human faces.


The Tensor Brain: Semantic Decoding for Perception and Memory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We analyse perception and memory using mathematical models for knowledge graphs and tensors to gain insights in the corresponding functionalities of the human mind. Our discussion is based on the concept of propositional sentences consisting of \textit{subject-predicate-object} (SPO) triples for expressing elementary facts. SPO sentences are the basis for most natural languages but might also be important for explicit perception and declarative memories, as well as intra-brain communication and the ability to argue and reason. A set of SPO sentences can be described as a knowledge graph, which can be transformed into an adjacency tensor. We introduce tensor models, where concepts have dual representations as indices and associated embeddings, two constructs we believe are essential for the understanding of implicit and explicit perception and memory in the brain. We argue that a biological realization of perception and memory imposes constraints on information processing. In particular, we propose that explicit perception and declarative memories require a semantic decoder, which, in a simple realization, is based on four layers: First, a sensory memory layer, as a buffer for sensory input, second, an index layer representing concepts, third, a memoryless representation layer for the broadcasting of information and fourth, a working memory layer as a processing center and data buffer. In a Bayesian brain interpretation, semantic memory defines the prior for triple statements. We propose that, in evolution and during development, semantic memory, episodic memory and natural language evolved as emergent properties in the agents' process to gain deeper understanding of sensory information. We present a concrete model realization and validate some aspects of our proposed model on benchmark data where we demonstrate state-of-the-art performance.