This paper introduces a Monte-Carlo algorithm for online planning in large POMDPs. The algorithm combines a Monte-Carlo update of the agent's belief state with a Monte-Carlo tree search from the current belief state. The new algorithm, POMCP, has two important properties. First, Monte-Carlo sampling is used to break the curse of dimensionality both during belief state updates and during planning. Second, only a black box simulator of the POMDP is required, rather than explicit probability distributions.

We present a general Bayesian approach to probabilistic matrix factorization subject to linear constraints. The approach is based on a Gaussian observation model and Gaussian priors with bilinear equality and inequality constraints. We present an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedure based on Gibbs sampling. Special cases of the proposed model are Bayesian formulations of non-negative matrix factorization and factor analysis. The method is evaluated on a blind source separation problem.

Automated recovery from failures is a key component in the management of large data centers. Such systems typically employ a hand-made controller created by an expert. While such controllers capture many important aspects of the recovery process, they are often not systematically optimized to reduce costs such as server downtime. In this paper we explain how to use data gathered from the interactions of the hand-made controller with the system, to create an optimized controller. We suggest learning an indefinite horizon Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, a model for decision making under uncertainty, and solve it using a point-based algorithm.

Markov random fields (MRFs), or undirected graphical models, provide a powerful framework for modeling complex dependencies among random variables. Maximum likelihood learning in MRFs is hard due to the presence of the global normalizing constant. In this paper we consider a class of stochastic approximation algorithms of Robbins-Monro type that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to do approximate maximum likelihood learning. We show that using MCMC operators based on tempered transitions enables the stochastic approximation algorithm to better explore highly multimodal distributions, which considerably improves parameter estimates in large densely-connected MRFs. Our results on MNIST and NORB datasets demonstrate that we can successfully learn good generative models of high-dimensional, richly structured data and perform well on digit and object recognition tasks.

A principled mechanism for identifying conditional dependencies in time-series data is provided through structure learning of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). An important assumption of DBN structure learning is that the data are generated by a stationary processâ an assumption that is not true in many important settings. In this paper, we introduce a new class of graphical models called non-stationary dynamic Bayesian networks, in which the conditional dependence structure of the underlying data-generation process is permitted to change over time. Non-stationary dynamic Bayesian networks represent a new framework for studying problems in which the structure of a network is evolving over time. We define the non-stationary DBN model, present an MCMC sampling algorithm for learning the structure of the model from time-series data under different assumptions, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm on both simulated and biological data.

Dependent Dirichlet processes (DPs) are dependent sets of random measures, each being marginally Dirichlet process distributed. They are used in Bayesian nonparametric models when the usual exchangebility assumption does not hold. We propose a simple and general framework to construct dependent DPs by marginalizing and normalizing a single gamma process over an extended space. The result is a set of DPs, each located at a point in a space such that neighboring DPs are more dependent. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo inference, involving the typical Gibbs sampling and three different Metropolis-Hastings proposals to speed up convergence.

The Charles Bonnet Syndrome (CBS) is characterized by complex vivid visual hallucinations in people with, primarily, eye diseases and no other neurological pathology. We present a Deep Boltzmann Machine model of CBS, exploring two core hypotheses: First, that the visual cortex learns a generative or predictive model of sensory input, thus explaining its capability to generate internal imagery. And second, that homeostatic mechanisms stabilize neuronal activity levels, leading to hallucinations being formed when input is lacking. We reproduce a variety of qualitative findings in CBS. We also introduce a modification to the DBM that allows us to model a possible role of acetylcholine in CBS as mediating the balance of feed-forward and feed-back processing.

Classical Game Theoretic approaches that make strong rationality assumptions have difficulty modeling observed behaviour in Economic games of human subjects. We investigate the role of finite levels of iterated reasoning and non-selfish utility functions in a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process model that incorporates Game Theoretic notions of interactivity. We invert the generative process for a recognition model that is used to classify 200 subjects playing an Investor-Trustee game against randomly matched opponents. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in nonparametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations.

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning with probabilistic deterministic finite automata (PDFA). We define and develop and sampler for a PDFA with an infinite number of states which we call the probabilistic deterministic infinite automata (PDIA). Posterior predictive inference in this model, given a finite training sequence, can be interpreted as averaging over multiple PDFAs of varying structure, where each PDFA is biased towards having few states. We suggest that our method for averaging over PDFAs is a novel approach to predictive distribution smoothing. We test PDIA inference both on PDFA structure learning and on both natural language and DNA data prediction tasks.