We develop a chatbot using Deep Bidirectional Transformer models (BERT) to handle client questions in financial investment customer service. The bot can recognize 381 intents, and decides when to say "I don't know" and escalates irrelevant/uncertain questions to human operators. Our main novel contribution is the discussion about uncertainty measure for BERT, where three different approaches are systematically compared on real problems. We investigated two uncertainty metrics, information entropy and variance of dropout sampling in BERT, followed by mixed-integer programming to optimize decision thresholds. Another novel contribution is the usage of BERT as a language model in automatic spelling correction. Inputs with accidental spelling errors can significantly decrease intent classification performance. The proposed approach combines probabilities from masked language model and word edit distances to find the best corrections for misspelled words. The chatbot and the entire conversational AI system are developed using open-source tools, and deployed within our company's intranet. The proposed approach can be useful for industries seeking similar in-house solutions in their specific business domains. We share all our code and a sample chatbot built on a public dataset on Github.

The Big Data analytics are a logical analysis of very large scale datasets. The data analysis enhances an organization and improve the decision making process. In this article, we present Airline Delay Analysis and Prediction to analyze airline datasets with the combination of weather dataset. In this research work, we consider various attributes to analyze flight delay, for example, day-wise, airline-wise, cloud cover, temperature, etc. Moreover, we present rigorous experiments on various machine learning model to predict correctly the delay of a flight, namely, logistic regression with L2 regularization, Gaussian Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree classifier and Random forest model. The accuracy of the Random Forest model is 82% with a delay threshold of 15 minutes of flight delay. The analysis is carried out using dataset from 1987 to 2008, the training is conducted with dataset from 2000 to 2007 and validated prediction result using 2008 data. Moreover, we have got recall 99% in the Random Forest model.

Deep Bayesian latent variable models have enabled new approaches to both model and data compression. Here, we propose a new algorithm for compressing latent representations in deep probabilistic models, such as variational autoencoders, in post-processing. The approach thus separates model design and training from the compression task. Our algorithm generalizes arithmetic coding to the continuous domain, using adaptive discretization accuracy that exploits estimates of posterior uncertainty. A consequence of the "plug and play" nature of our approach is that various rate-distortion trade-offs can be achieved with a single trained model, eliminating the need to train multiple models for different bit rates. Our experimental results demonstrate the importance of taking into account posterior uncertainties, and show that image compression with the proposed algorithm outperforms JPEG over a wide range of bit rates using only a single machine learning model. Further experiments on Bayesian neural word embeddings demonstrate the versatility of the proposed method.

We consider the estimation of treatment effects in settings when multiple treatments are assigned over time and treatments can have a causal effect on future outcomes. We formulate the problem as a linear state space Markov process with a high dimensional state and propose an extension of the double/debiased machine learning framework to estimate the dynamic effects of treatments. Our method allows the use of arbitrary machine learning methods to control for the high dimensional state, subject to a mean square error guarantee, while still allowing parametric estimation and construction of confidence intervals for the dynamic treatment effect parameters of interest. Our method is based on a sequential regression peeling process, which we show can be equivalently interpreted as a Neyman orthogonal moment estimator. This allows us to show root-n asymptotic normality of the estimated causal effects.

Algorithms that tackle deep exploration -- an important challenge in reinforcement learning -- have relied on epistemic uncertainty representation through ensembles or other hypermodels, exploration bonuses, or visitation count distributions. An open question is whether deep exploration can be achieved by an incremental reinforcement learning algorithm that tracks a single point estimate, without additional complexity required to account for epistemic uncertainty. We answer this question in the affirmative. In particular, we develop Langevin DQN, a variation of DQN that differs only in perturbing parameter updates with Gaussian noise, and demonstrate through a computational study that the algorithm achieves deep exploration. We also provide an intuition for why Langevin DQN performs deep exploration.

To make decisions based on a model fit by Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB), practitioners typically use importance sampling to estimate a functional of the posterior distribution. The variational distribution found by AEVB serves as the proposal distribution for importance sampling. However, this proposal distribution may give unreliable (high variance) importance sampling estimates, thus leading to poor decisions. We explore how changing the objective function for learning the variational distribution, while continuing to learn the generative model based on the ELBO, affects the quality of downstream decisions. For a particular model, we characterize the error of importance sampling as a function of posterior variance and show that proposal distributions learned with evidence upper bounds are better. Motivated by these theoretical results, we propose a novel variant of the VAE. In addition to experimenting with MNIST, we present a full-fledged application of the proposed method to single-cell RNA sequencing. In this challenging instance of multiple hypothesis testing, the proposed method surpasses the current state of the art.

In this paper, we present an approach based on reinforcement learning for eye tracking data manipulation. It is based on two opposing agents, where one tries to classify the data correctly and the second agent looks for patterns in the data, which get manipulated to hide specific information. We show that our approach is successfully applicable to preserve the privacy of a subject. In addition, our approach allows to evaluate the importance of temporal, as well as spatial, information of eye tracking data for specific classification goals. In general, this approach can also be used for stimuli manipulation, making it interesting for gaze guidance. For this purpose, this work provides the theoretical basis, which is why we have also integrated a section on how to apply this method for gaze guidance.

There are several real-world tasks that would benefit from applying multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms, including the coordination among self-driving cars. The real world has challenging conditions for multiagent learning systems, such as its partial observable and nonstationary nature. Moreover, if agents must share a limited resource (e.g. network bandwidth) they must all learn how to coordinate resource use. This paper introduces a deep recurrent multiagent actor-critic framework (R-MADDPG) for handling multiagent coordination under partial observable set-tings and limited communication. We investigate recurrency effects on performance and communication use of a team of agents. We demonstrate that the resulting framework learns time dependencies for sharing missing observations, handling resource limitations, and developing different communication patterns among agents.

Recent advances in machine learning have led to increased deployment of black-box classifiers across a wide variety of applications. In many such situations there is a crucial need to assess the performance of these pre-trained models, for instance to ensure sufficient predictive accuracy, or that class probabilities are well-calibrated. Furthermore, since labeled data may be scarce or costly to collect, it is desirable for such assessment be performed in an efficient manner. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach for model assessment that satisfies these desiderata. We develop inference strategies to quantify uncertainty for common assessment metrics (accuracy, misclassification cost, expected calibration error), and propose a framework for active assessment using this uncertainty to guide efficient selection of instances for labeling. We illustrate the benefits of our approach in experiments assessing the performance of modern neural classifiers (e.g., ResNet and BERT) on several standard image and text classification datasets.

Machine learning is increasingly being used in various applications that make decisions for individuals. For such applications, we need to strike a balance between achieving good prediction accuracy and making fair decisions with respect to a sensitive feature (e.g., race or gender), which is difficult in complex real-world scenarios. Existing methods measure the unfairness in such scenarios as {\it unfair causal effects} and constrain its mean to zero. Unfortunately, with these methods, the decisions are not necessarily fair for all individuals because even when the mean unfair effect is zero, unfair effects might be positive for some individuals and negative for others, which is discriminatory for them. To learn a classifier that is fair for all individuals, we define unfairness as the {\it probability of individual unfairness} (PIU) and propose to solve an optimization problem that constrains an upper bound on PIU. We theoretically illustrate why our method achieves individual fairness. Experimental results demonstrate that our method learns an individually fair classifier at a slight cost of prediction accuracy.