Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear models are often not sufficient to describe the complex relationship between input variables and a response. This relationship can be better described by non-linearities and complex functional interactions. Deep learning models have been extremely successful in terms of prediction although they are often difficult to specify and potentially suffer from overfitting. In this paper, we introduce a class of Bayesian generalized nonlinear regression models with a comprehensive non-linear feature space. Non-linear features are generated hierarchically, similarly to deep learning, but have additional flexibility on the possible types of features to be considered. This flexibility, combined with variable selection, allows us to find a small set of important features and thereby more interpretable models. A genetically modified Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to make inference. Model averaging is also possible within our framework. In various applications, we illustrate how our approach is used to obtain meaningful non-linear models. Additionally, we compare its predictive performance with a number of machine learning algorithms.

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has enabled to prove the equivalence between robustness and regularization in classification and regression, thus providing an analytical reason why regularization generalizes well in statistical learning. Although DRO's extension to sequential decision-making overcomes $\textit{external uncertainty}$ through the robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) setting, the resulting formulation is hard to solve, especially on large domains. On the other hand, existing regularization methods in reinforcement learning only address $\textit{internal uncertainty}$ due to stochasticity. Our study aims to facilitate robust reinforcement learning by establishing a dual relation between robust MDPs and regularization. We introduce Wasserstein distributionally robust MDPs and prove that they hold out-of-sample performance guarantees. Then, we introduce a new regularizer for empirical value functions and show that it lower bounds the Wasserstein distributionally robust value function. We extend the result to linear value function approximation for large state spaces. Our approach provides an alternative formulation of robustness with guaranteed finite-sample performance. Moreover, it suggests using regularization as a practical tool for dealing with $\textit{external uncertainty}$ in reinforcement learning methods.

Unlike conventional techniques for speaker adaptation, which attempt to improve the accuracy of the segmentation using acoustic models that are more robust in the face of the speaker's characteristics, we aim to use only context dependent characteristics extrapolated with linguistic analysis techniques. In simple terms, we use the intuitive idea that context dependent information is tightly correlated with the related acoustic waveform. We propose a statistical model, which predicts correcting values to reduce the systematic error produced by a state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based speech segmentation. In other words, we can predict how HMM-based Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems interpret the waveform signal determining the systematic error in different contextual scenarios. Our approach consists of two phases: (1) identifying contextdependent phonetic unit classes (for instance, the class which identifies vowels as being the nucleus of monosyllabic words); and (2) building a regression model that associates the mean error value made by the ASR during the segmentation of a single speaker corpus to each class. The success of the approach is evaluated by comparing the corrected boundaries of units and the state-of-the-art HHM segmentation against a reference alignment, which is supposed to be the optimal solution. The results of this study show that the contextdependent correction of units' boundaries has a positive influence on the forced alignment, especially when the misinterpretation of the phone is driven by acoustic properties linked to the speaker's phonetic characteristics. In conclusion, our work supplies a first analysis of a model sensitive to speaker-dependent characteristics, robust to defective and noisy information, and a very simple implementation which could be utilized as an alternative to either more expensive speaker-adaptation systems or of numerous manual correction sessions.

We introduce a new and rigorously-formulated PAC-Bayes few-shot meta-learning algorithm that implicitly learns a prior distribution of the model of interest. Our proposed method extends the PAC-Bayes framework from a single task setting to the few-shot learning setting to upper-bound generalisation errors on unseen tasks and samples. We also propose a generative-based approach to model the shared prior and the posterior of task-specific model parameters more expressively compared to the usual diagonal Gaussian assumption. We show that the models trained with our proposed meta-learning algorithm are well calibrated and accurate, with state-of-the-art calibration and classification results on few-shot classification (mini-ImageNet and tiered-ImageNet) and regression (multi-modal task-distribution regression) benchmarks.

Recently latent factor model (LFM) has been drawing much attention in recommender systems due to its good performance and scalability. However, existing LFMs predict missing values in a user-item rating matrix only based on the known ones, and thus the sparsity of the rating matrix always limits their performance. Meanwhile, semi-supervised learning (SSL) provides an effective way to alleviate the label (i.e., rating) sparsity problem by performing label propagation, which is mainly based on the smoothness insight on affinity graphs. However, graph-based SSL suffers serious scalability and graph unreliable problems when directly being applied to do recommendation. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic chain graph model (CGM) to marry SSL with LFM. The proposed CGM is a combination of Bayesian network and Markov random field. The Bayesian network is used to model the rating generation and regression procedures, and the Markov random field is used to model the confidence-aware smoothness constraint between the generated ratings. Experimental results show that our proposed CGM significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of four evaluation metrics, and with a larger performance margin when data sparsity increases.

Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such models particularly challenging. Existing PPSs either require the user to manually marginalize out the discrete variables or to perform a composing inference by running inference separately on discrete and continuous variables. The former is infeasible in most cases whereas the latter has some fundamental shortcomings. We present a novel approach to run inference efficiently and robustly in such programs using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo family of algorithms. We compare our stochastic gradient-based inference algorithm against conventional baselines in several important cases of probabilistic programs with mixed support, and demonstrate that it outperforms existing composing inference baselines and works almost as well as inference in marginalized versions of the programs, but with less programming effort and at a lower computation cost.

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to'hybrid' BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted.

In many sequential decision-making problems, the goal is to optimize a utility function while satisfying a set of constraints on different utilities. This learning problem is formalized through Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs). In this paper, we investigate the exploration-exploitation dilemma in CMDPs. While learning in an unknown CMDP, an agent should trade-off exploration to discover new information about the MDP, and exploitation of the current knowledge to maximize the reward while satisfying the constraints. While the agent will eventually learn a good or optimal policy, we do not want the agent to violate the constraints too often during the learning process. In this work, we analyze two approaches for learning in CMDPs. The first approach leverages the linear formulation of CMDP to perform optimistic planning at each episode. The second approach leverages the dual formulation (or saddle-point formulation) of CMDP to perform incremental, optimistic updates of the primal and dual variables. We show that both achieves sublinear regret w.r.t.\ the main utility while having a sublinear regret on the constraint violations. That being said, we highlight a crucial difference between the two approaches; the linear programming approach results in stronger guarantees than in the dual formulation based approach.

Time series classification using novel techniques has experienced a recent resurgence and growing interest from statisticians, subject-domain scientists, and decision makers in business and industry. This is primarily due to the ever increasing amount of big and complex data produced as a result of technological advances. A motivating example is that of Google trends data, which exhibit highly nonlinear behavior. Although a rich literature exists for addressing this problem, existing approaches mostly rely on first and second order properties of the time series, since they typically assume linearity of the underlying process. Often, these are inadequate for effective classification of nonlinear time series data such as Google Trends data. Given these methodological deficiencies and the abundance of nonlinear time series that persist among real-world phenomena, we introduce an approach that merges higher order spectral analysis (HOSA) with deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for classifying time series. The effectiveness of our approach is illustrated using simulated data and two motivating industry examples that involve Google trends data and electronic device energy consumption data.

The data model of standard sparse coding assumes a weighted linear summation of latents to determine the mean of Gaussian observation noise. However, such a linear summation of latents is often at odds with non-Gaussian observables (e.g., means of the Bernoulli distribution have to lie in the unit interval), and also in the Gaussian case it can be difficult to justify for many types of data. Alternative superposition models (i.e., links between latents and observables) have therefore been investigated repeatedly. Here we show that using the maximum instead of a linear sum to link latents to observables allows for the derivation of very general and concise parameter update equations. Concretely, we derive a set of update equations that has the same functional form for all distributions of the exponential family (given that derivatives w.r.t. their parameters can be taken). Our results consequently allow for the development of latent variable models for commonly as well as for unusually distributed data. We numerically verify our analytical result assuming standard Gaussian, Gamma, Poisson, Bernoulli and Exponential distributions and point to some potential applications.