Learning Graphical Models
Convergence of Recursive Stochastic Algorithms using Wasserstein Divergence
Gupta, Abhishek, Haskell, William B.
This paper develops a unified framework, based on iterated random operator theory, to analyze the convergence of constant stepsize recursive stochastic algorithms (RSAs) in machine learning and reinforcement learning. RSAs use randomization to efficiently compute expectations, and so their iterates form a stochastic process. The key idea is to lift the RSA into an appropriate higher-dimensional space and then express it as an equivalent Markov chain. Instead of determining the convergence of this Markov chain (which may not converge under constant stepsize), we study the convergence of the distribution of this Markov chain. To study this, we define a new notion of Wasserstein divergence. We show that if the distribution of the iterates in the Markov chain satisfy certain contraction property with respect to the Wasserstein divergence, then the Markov chain admits an invariant distribution. Inspired by the SVRG algorithm, we develop a method to convert any RSA to a variance reduced RSA that converges to the optimal solution with in almost sure sense or in probability. We show that convergence of a large family of constant stepsize RSAs can be understood using this framework. We apply this framework to ascertain the convergence of mini-batch SGD, forward-backward splitting with catalyst, SVRG, SAGA, empirical Q value iteration, synchronous Q-learning, enhanced policy iteration, and MDPs with a generative model. We also develop two new algorithms for reinforcement learning and establish their convergence using this framework.
VaB-AL: Incorporating Class Imbalance and Difficulty with Variational Bayes for Active Learning
Choi, Jongwon, Yi, Kwang Moo, Kim, Jihoon, Choo, Jincho, Kim, Byoungjip, Chang, Jin-Yeop, Gwon, Youngjune, Chang, Hyung Jin
Active Learning for discriminative models has largely been studied with the focus on individual samples, with less emphasis on how classes are distributed or which classes are hard to deal with. In this work, we show that this is harmful. We propose a method based on the Bayes' rule, that can naturally incorporate class imbalance into the Active Learning framework. We derive that three terms should be considered together when estimating the probability of a classifier making a mistake for a given sample; i) probability of mislabelling a class, ii) likelihood of the data given a predicted class, and iii) the prior probability on the abundance of a predicted class. Implementing these terms requires a generative model and an intractable likelihood estimation. Therefore, we train a Variational Auto Encoder (VAE) for this purpose. To further tie the VAE with the classifier and facilitate VAE training, we use the classifiers' deep feature representations as input to the VAE. By considering all three probabilities, among them especially the data imbalance, we can substantially improve the potential of existing methods under limited data budget. We show that our method can be applied to classification tasks on multiple different datasets -- including one that is a real-world dataset with heavy data imbalance -- significantly outperforming the state of the art.
Uncertainty Estimation in Cancer Survival Prediction
Loya, Hrushikesh, Poduval, Pranav, Anand, Deepak, Kumar, Neeraj, Sethi, Amit
Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been paid to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates associated with each prediction. The currently popular models are opaque and untrustworthy in that they often express high confidence even on those test cases that are not similar to the training samples, and even when their predictions are wrong. We propose a Bayesian framework for survival models that not only gives more accurate survival predictions but also quantifies the survival uncertainty better. Our approach is a novel combination of variational inference for uncertainty estimation, neural multi-task logistic regression for estimating nonlinear and time-varying risk models, and an additional sparsity-inducing prior to work with high dimensional data.
Multi-Lead ECG Classification via an Information-Based Attention Convolutional Neural Network
Tung, Hao, Zheng, Chao, Mao, Xinsheng, Qian, Dahong
Objective: A novel structure based on channel-wise attention mechanism is presented in this paper. Embedding with the proposed structure, an efficient classification model that accepts multi-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as input is constructed. Methods: One-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNN) have proven to be effective in pervasive classification tasks, enabling the automatic extraction of features while classifying targets. We implement the Residual connection and design a structure which can learn the weights from the information contained in different channels in the input feature map during the training process. An indicator named mean square deviation is introduced to monitor the performance of a particular model segment in the classification task on the two out of the five ECG classes. The data in the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database is used and a series of control experiments is conducted. Results: Utilizing both leads of the ECG signals as input to the neural network classifier can achieve better classification results than those from using single channel inputs in different application scenarios. Models embedded with the channel-wise attention structure always achieve better scores on sensitivity and precision than the plain Resnet models. The proposed model exceeds the performance of most of the state-of-the-art models in ventricular ectopic beats (VEB) classification, and achieves competitive scores for supraventricular ectopic beats (SVEB). Conclusion: Adopting more lead ECG signals as input can increase the dimensions of the input feature maps, helping to improve both the performance and generalization of the network model. Significance: Due to its end-to-end characteristics, and the extensible intrinsic for multi-lead heart diseases diagnosing, the proposed model can be used for the real-time ECG tracking of ECG waveforms for Holter or wearable devices.
From Statistical Relational to Neuro-Symbolic Artificial Intelligence
De Raedt, Luc, Dumančić, Sebastijan, Manhaeve, Robin, Marra, Giuseppe
Neuro-symbolic and statistical relational artificial intelligence both integrate frameworks for learning with logical reasoning. This survey identifies several parallels across seven different dimensions between these two fields. These cannot only be used to characterize and position neuro-symbolic artificial intelligence approaches but also to identify a number of directions for further research.
Merge-split Markov chain Monte Carlo for community detection
We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme based on merges and splits of groups that is capable of efficiently sampling from the posterior distribution of network partitions, defined according to the stochastic block model (SBM). We demonstrate how schemes based on the move of single nodes between groups systematically fail at correctly sampling from the posterior distribution even on small networks, and how our merge-split approach behaves significantly better, and improves the mixing time of the Markov chain by several orders of magnitude in typical cases. We also show how the scheme can be straightforwardly extended to nested versions of the SBM, yielding asymptotically exact samples of hierarchical network partitions.
An empirical investigation of the challenges of real-world reinforcement learning
Dulac-Arnold, Gabriel, Levine, Nir, Mankowitz, Daniel J., Li, Jerry, Paduraru, Cosmin, Gowal, Sven, Hester, Todd
Reinforcement learning (RL) has proven its worth in a series of artificial domains, and is beginning to show some successes in real-world scenarios. However, much of the research advances in RL are hard to leverage in real-world systems due to a series of assumptions that are rarely satisfied in practice. In this work, we identify and formalize a series of independent challenges that embody the difficulties that must be addressed for RL to be commonly deployed in real-world systems. For each challenge, we define it formally in the context of a Markov Decision Process, analyze the effects of the challenge on state-of-the-art learning algorithms, and present some existing attempts at tackling it. We believe that an approach that addresses our set of proposed challenges would be readily deployable in a large number of real world problems. Our proposed challenges are implemented in a suite of continuous control environments called realworldrl-suite which we propose an as an open-source benchmark.
Markovian Score Climbing: Variational Inference with KL(p||q)
Naesseth, Christian A., Lindsten, Fredrik, Blei, David
Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior $p$. Traditionally, VI algorithms minimize the "exclusive KL" KL$(q\|p)$, often for computational convenience. Recent research, however, has also focused on the "inclusive KL" KL$(p\|q)$, which has good statistical properties that makes it more appropriate for certain inference problems. This paper develops a simple algorithm for reliably minimizing the inclusive KL. Consider a valid MCMC method, a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is $p$. The algorithm we develop iteratively samples the chain $z[k]$, and then uses those samples to follow the score function of the variational approximation, $\nabla \log q(z[k])$ with a Robbins-Monro step-size schedule. This method, which we call Markovian score climbing (MSC), converges to a local optimum of the inclusive KL. It does not suffer from the systematic errors inherent in existing methods, such as Reweighted Wake-Sleep and Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo, which lead to bias in their final estimates. In a variant that ties the variational approximation directly to the Markov chain, MSC further provides a new algorithm that melds VI and MCMC. We illustrate convergence on a toy model and demonstrate the utility of MSC on Bayesian probit regression for classification as well as a stochastic volatility model for financial data.
Systematic Evaluation of Privacy Risks of Machine Learning Models
Machine learning models are prone to memorizing sensitive data, making them vulnerable to membership inference attacks in which an adversary aims to guess if an input sample was used to train the model. In this paper, we show that prior work on membership inference attacks may severely underestimate the privacy risks by relying solely on training custom neural network classifiers to perform attacks and focusing only on the aggregate results over data samples, such as the attack accuracy. To overcome these limitations, we first propose to benchmark membership inference privacy risks by improving existing non-neural network based inference attacks and proposing a new inference attack method based on a modification of prediction entropy. We also propose benchmarks for defense mechanisms by accounting for adaptive adversaries with knowledge of the defense and also accounting for the trade-off between model accuracy and privacy risks. Using our benchmark attacks, we demonstrate that existing defense approaches are not as effective as previously reported. Next, we introduce a new approach for fine-grained privacy analysis by formulating and deriving a new metric called the privacy risk score. Our privacy risk score metric measures an individual sample's likelihood of being a training member, which allows an adversary to perform membership inference attacks with high confidence. We experimentally validate the effectiveness of the privacy risk score metric and demonstrate that the distribution of the privacy risk score across individual samples is heterogeneous. Finally, we perform an in-depth investigation for understanding why certain samples have high privacy risk scores, including correlations with model sensitivity, generalization error, and feature embeddings. Our work emphasizes the importance of a systematic and rigorous evaluation of privacy risks of machine learning models.
Deep Reinforcement Learning with Smooth Policy
Shen, Qianli, Li, Yan, Jiang, Haoming, Wang, Zhaoran, Zhao, Tuo
Deep neural networks have been widely adopted in modern reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms with great empirical successes in various domains. However, the large search space of training a neural network requires a significant amount of data, which makes the current RL algorithms not sample efficient. Motivated by the fact that many environments with continuous state space have smooth transitions, we propose to learn a smooth policy that behaves smoothly with respect to states. In contrast to policies parameterized by linear/reproducing kernel functions, where simple regularization techniques suffice to control smoothness, for neural network based reinforcement learning algorithms, there is no readily available solution to learn a smooth policy. In this paper, we develop a new training framework --- $\textbf{S}$mooth $\textbf{R}$egularized $\textbf{R}$einforcement $\textbf{L}$earning ($\textbf{SR}^2\textbf{L}$), where the policy is trained with smoothness-inducing regularization. Such regularization effectively constrains the search space of the learning algorithms and enforces smoothness in the learned policy. We apply the proposed framework to both on-policy (TRPO) and off-policy algorithm (DDPG). Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method achieves improved sample efficiency.