The $ρ$-posterior framework provides universal Bayesian estimation with explicit contamination rates and optimal convergence guarantees, but has remained computationally difficult due to an optimization over reference distributions that precludes intractable posterior computation. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework that recovers these theoretical guarantees through temperature-dependent Gibbs posteriors, deriving finite-sample oracle inequalities with explicit rates and introducing tractable variational approximations that inherit the robustness properties of exact $ρ$-posteriors. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this approach achieves theoretical contamination rates while remaining computationally feasible, providing the first practical implementation of $ρ$-posterior inference with rigorous finite-sample guarantees.

Inference-time alignment for diffusion models aims to adapt a pre-trained diffusion model toward a target distribution without retraining the base score network, thereby preserving the generative capacity of the base model while enforcing desired properties at the inference time. A central mechanism for achieving such alignment is guidance, which modifies the sampling dynamics through an additional drift term. In this work, we introduce Doob's matching, a novel framework for guidance estimation grounded in Doob's $h$-transform. Our approach formulates guidance as the gradient of logarithm of an underlying Doob's $h$-function and employs gradient-penalized regression to simultaneously estimate both the $h$-function and its gradient, resulting in a consistent estimator of the guidance. Theoretically, we establish non-asymptotic convergence rates for the estimated guidance. Moreover, we analyze the resulting controllable diffusion processes and prove non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the generated distributions in the 2-Wasserstein distance.

Class imbalance significantly degrades classification performance, yet its effects are rarely analyzed from a unified theoretical perspective. We propose a principled framework based on three fundamental scales: the imbalance coefficient $η$, the sample--dimension ratio $κ$, and the intrinsic separability $Δ$. Starting from the Gaussian Bayes classifier, we derive closed-form Bayes errors and show how imbalance shifts the discriminant boundary, yielding a deterioration slope that predicts four regimes: Normal, Mild, Extreme, and Catastrophic. Using a balanced high-dimensional genomic dataset, we vary only $η$ while keeping $κ$ and $Δ$ fixed. Across parametric and non-parametric models, empirical degradation closely follows theoretical predictions: minority Recall collapses once $\log(η)$ exceeds $Δ\sqrtκ$, Precision increases asymmetrically, and F1-score and PR-AUC decline in line with the predicted regimes. These results show that the triplet $(η,κ,Δ)$ provides a model-agnostic, geometrically grounded explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.

Modern AI systems increasingly operate inside markets and institutions where data, behavior, and incentives are endogenous. This paper develops an economic foundation for multi-agent learning by studying a principal-agent interaction in a Markov decision process with strategic externalities, where both the principal and the agent learn over time. We propose a two-phase incentive mechanism that first estimates implementable transfers and then uses them to steer long-run dynamics; under mild regret-based rationality and exploration conditions, the mechanism achieves sublinear social-welfare regret and thus asymptotically optimal welfare. Simulations illustrate how even coarse incentives can correct inefficient learning under stateful externalities, highlighting the necessity of incentive-aware design for safe and welfare-aligned AI in markets and insurance.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a flexible framework that combines multiple specialized submodels (``experts''), by assigning covariate-dependent weights (``gating functions'') to each expert, and have been commonly used for analyzing heterogeneous data. Existing statistical MoE formulations typically assume constant coefficients, for covariate effects within the expert or gating models, which can be inadequate for longitudinal, spatial, or other dynamic settings where covariate influences and latent subpopulation structure evolve across a known dimension. We propose a Varying-Coefficient Mixture of Experts (VCMoE) model that allows all coefficient effects in both the gating functions and expert models to vary along an indexing variable. We establish identifiability and consistency of the proposed model, and develop an estimation procedure, label-consistent EM algorithm, for both fully functional and hybrid specifications, along with the corresponding asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. For inference, simultaneous confidence bands are constructed using both asymptotic theory for the maximum discrepancy between the estimated functional coefficients and their true counterparts, and with bootstrap methods. In addition, a generalized likelihood ratio test is developed to examine whether a coefficient function is genuinely varying across the index variable. Simulation studies demonstrate good finite-sample performance, with acceptable bias and satisfactory coverage rates. We illustrate the proposed VCMoE model using a dataset of single nucleus gene expression in embryonic mice to characterize the temporal dynamics of the associations between the expression levels of genes Satb2 and Bcl11b across two latent cell subpopulations of neurons, yielding results that are consistent with prior findings.

We revisit Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (Deep LDA) from a likelihood-based perspective. While classical LDA is a simple Gaussian model with linear decision boundaries, attaching an LDA head to a neural encoder raises the question of how to train the resulting deep classifier by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We first show that end-to-end MLE training of an unconstrained Deep LDA model ignores discrimination: when both the LDA parameters and the encoder parameters are learned jointly, the likelihood admits a degenerate solution in which some of the class clusters may heavily overlap or even collapse, and classification performance deteriorates. Batchwise moment re-estimation of the LDA parameters does not remove this failure mode. We then propose a constrained Deep LDA formulation that fixes the class means to the vertices of a regular simplex in the latent space and restricts the shared covariance to be spherical, leaving only the priors and a single variance parameter to be learned along with the encoder. Under these geometric constraints, MLE becomes stable and yields well-separated class clusters in the latent space. On images (Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100), the resulting Deep LDA models achieve accuracy competitive with softmax baselines while offering a simple, interpretable latent geometry that is clearly visible in two-dimensional projections.

We show that for unconstrained Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers, maximum-likelihood training admits pathological solutions in which class means drift together, covariances collapse, and the learned representation becomes almost non-discriminative. Conversely, cross-entropy training yields excellent accuracy but decouples the head from the underlying generative model, leading to highly inconsistent parameter estimates. To reconcile generative structure with discriminative performance, we introduce the \emph{Discriminative Negative Log-Likelihood} (DNLL) loss, which augments the LDA log-likelihood with a simple penalty on the mixture density. DNLL can be interpreted as standard LDA NLL plus a term that explicitly discourages regions where several classes are simultaneously likely. Deep LDA trained with DNLL produces clean, well-separated latent spaces, matches the test accuracy of softmax classifiers on synthetic data and standard image benchmarks, and yields substantially better calibrated predictive probabilities, restoring a coherent probabilistic interpretation to deep discriminant models.

We introduce the Multiscale Experience Replay (MER) algorithm for solving a class of stochastic variational inequalities (VIs) in settings where samples are generated from a Markov chain and we have access to a memory buffer to store them. Rather than uniformly sampling from the buffer, MER utilizes a multi-scale sampling scheme to emulate the behavior of VI algorithms designed for independent and identically distributed samples, overcoming bias in the de facto serial scheme and thereby accelerating convergence. Notably, unlike standard sample-skipping variants of serial algorithms, MER is robust in that it achieves this acceleration in iteration complexity whenever possible, and without requiring knowledge of the mixing time of the Markov chain. We also discuss applications of MER, particularly in policy evaluation with temporal difference learning and in training generalized linear models with dependent data.

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs samplers can be used to estimate the model, yet suffering from various problems including non-convexity, high computational complexity and slow mixing. In this paper, we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampler that efficiently samples from HMMs' posterior by integrating out both the missing observations and the corresponding latent states. The proposed sampler is fast due to its three advantages. First, it achieves an estimation accuracy that is comparable to existing methods. Second, it can produce a larger Effective Sample Size (ESS) per iteration, which can be justified theoretically and numerically. Third, when the number of missing entries is large, the sampler has a significant smaller computational complexity per iteration compared to other methods, thus is faster computationally. In summary, the proposed sampling algorithm is fast both computationally and theoretically and is particularly advantageous when there are a lot of missing entries. Finally, empirical evaluations based on numerical simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms existing algorithms in terms of time complexity and sampling efficiency (measured in ESS).

Bayesian model selection commonly relies on Laplace approximation or the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which assume that the effective model dimension equals the number of parameters. Singular learning theory replaces this assumption with the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), an effective dimension that can be strictly smaller in overparameterized or rank-deficient models. We study linear-Gaussian rank models and linear subspace (dictionary) models in which the exact marginal likelihood is available in closed form and the RLCT is analytically tractable. In this setting, we show theoretically and empirically that the error of Laplace/BIC grows linearly with (d/2 minus lambda) times log n, where d is the ambient parameter dimension and lambda is the RLCT. An RLCT-aware correction recovers the correct evidence slope and is invariant to overcomplete reparameterizations that represent the same data subspace. Our results provide a concrete finite-sample characterization of Laplace failure in singular models and demonstrate that evidence slopes can be used as a practical estimator of effective dimension in simple linear settings.