This article proposes a new class of Real Elliptically Skewed (RESK) distributions and associated clustering algorithms that allow for integrating robustness and skewness into a single unified cluster analysis framework. Non-symmetrically distributed and heavy-tailed data clusters have been reported in a variety of real-world applications. Robustness is essential because a few outlying observations can severely obscure the cluster structure. The RESK distributions are a generalization of the Real Elliptically Symmetric (RES) distributions. To estimate the cluster parameters and memberships, we derive an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for arbitrary RESK distributions. Special attention is given to a new robust skew-Huber M-estimator, which is also the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the skew-Huber distribution that belongs to the RESK class. Numerical experiments on simulated and real-world data confirm the usefulness of the proposed methods for skewed and heavy-tailed data sets.

The study of network formation is pervasive in economics, sociology, and many other fields. In this paper, we model network formation as a ``choice'' that is made by nodes in a network to connect to other nodes. We study these ``choices'' using discrete-choice models, in which an agent chooses between two or more discrete alternatives. One framework for studying network formation is the multinomial logit (MNL) model. We highlight limitations of the MNL model on networks that are constructed from empirical data. We employ the ``repeated choice'' (RC) model to study network formation \cite{TrainRevelt97mixedlogit}. We argue that the RC model overcomes important limitations of the MNL model and is well-suited to study network formation. We also illustrate how to use the RC model to accurately study network formation using both synthetic and real-world networks. Using synthetic networks, we also compare the performance of the MNL model and the RC model; we find that the RC model estimates the data-generation process of our synthetic networks more accurately than the MNL model. We provide examples of qualitatively interesting questions -- the presence of homophily in a teen friendship network and the fact that new patents are more likely to cite older, more cited, and similar patents -- for which the RC model allows us to achieve insights.

Evaluating the reliability of intelligent physical systems against rare catastrophic events poses a huge testing burden for real-world applications. Simulation provides a useful, if not unique, platform to evaluate the extremal risks of these AIenabled systems before their deployments. Importance Sampling (IS), while proven to be powerful for rare-event simulation, faces challenges in handling these systems due to their black-box nature that fundamentally undermines its efficiency guarantee. To overcome this challenge, we propose a framework called Deep Probabilistic Accelerated Evaluation (D-PrAE) to design IS, which leverages rare-event-set learning and and a new notion of efficiency certificate. D-PrAE combines the dominating point method with deep neural network classifiers to achieve superior estimation efficiency. We present theoretical guarantees and demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of D-PrAE via examples on the safety-testing of self-driving algorithms that are beyond the reach of classical variance reduction techniques.

The Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) belongs to a class of models, which we will refer to as deep maximum likelihood models, that uses a deep neural network to learn a maximum likelihood model for some input data. They are perhaps the most simple and efficient deep maximum likelihood model available, and have thus gained popularity in representation learning and generative image modeling. Unfortunately, in my opinion, in some circles the term "VAE" has become somewhat synonymous with "an auto-encoder with stochastic regularization that generates useful or beautiful samples", which has led to various misconceptions about VAEs. In this tutorial, we will return to the probabilistic and information theoretic roots of VAEs, clarify common misconceptions about VAEs, and look at a toy example on 2D data that will illustrate the capabilities and limitations of VAEs. In Section 2, we will give an overview of what is a maximum likelihood model and what a VAE looks like.

We propose a unified framework for adaptive connection sampling in graph neural networks (GNNs) that generalizes existing stochastic regularization methods for training GNNs. The proposed framework not only alleviates over-smoothing and over-fitting tendencies of deep GNNs, but also enables learning with uncertainty in graph analytic tasks with GNNs. Instead of using fixed sampling rates or hand-tuning them as model hyperparameters in existing stochastic regularization methods, our adaptive connection sampling can be trained jointly with GNN model parameters in both global and local fashions. GNN training with adaptive connection sampling is shown to be mathematically equivalent to an efficient approximation of training Bayesian GNNs. Experimental results with ablation studies on benchmark datasets validate that adaptively learning the sampling rate given graph training data is the key to boost the performance of GNNs in semi-supervised node classification, less prone to over-smoothing and over-fitting with more robust prediction.

In this work, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in non-convex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning the solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of present work.

We study the use of policy gradient algorithms to optimize over a class of generalized Thompson sampling policies. Our central insight is to view the posterior parameter sampled by Thompson sampling as a kind of pseudo-action. Policy gradient methods can then be tractably applied to search over a class of sampling policies, which determine a probability distribution over pseudo-actions (i.e., sampled parameters) as a function of observed data. We also propose and compare policy gradient estimators that are specialized to Bayesian bandit problems. Numerical experiments demonstrate that direct policy search on top of Thompson sampling automatically corrects for some of the algorithm's known shortcomings and offers meaningful improvements even in long horizon problems where standard Thompson sampling is extremely effective.

Many non-trivial sequential decision-making problems are efficiently solved by relying on Bellman's optimality principle, i.e., exploiting the fact that sub-problems are nested recursively within the original problem. Here we show how it can apply to (infinite horizon) 2-player zero-sum partially observable stochastic games (zs-POSGs) by (i) taking a central planner's viewpoint, which can only reason on a sufficient statistic called occupancy state, and (ii) turning such problems into zero-sum occupancy Markov games (zs-OMGs). Then, exploiting the Lipschitz-continuity of the value function in occupancy space, one can derive a version of the HSVI algorithm (Heuristic Search Value Iteration) that provably finds an $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium in finite time.

We introduce improved learning and planning algorithms for average-reward MDPs, including 1) the first general proven-convergent off-policy model-free control algorithm without reference states, 2) the first proven-convergent off-policy model-free prediction algorithm, and 3) the first learning algorithms that converge to the actual value function rather than to the value function plus an offset. All of our algorithms are based on using the temporal-difference error rather than the conventional error when updating the estimate of the average reward. Our proof techniques are based on those of Abounadi, Bertsekas, and Borkar (2001). Empirically, we show that the use of the temporal-difference error generally results in faster learning, and that reliance on a reference state generally results in slower learning and risks divergence. All of our learning algorithms are fully online, and all of our planning algorithms are fully incremental.

Human trust in automation plays an essential role in interactions between humans and automation. While a lack of trust can lead to a human's disuse of automation, over-trust can result in a human trusting a faulty autonomous system which could have negative consequences for the human. Therefore, human trust should be calibrated to optimize human-machine interactions with respect to context-specific performance objectives. In this article, we present a probabilistic framework to model and calibrate a human's trust and workload dynamics during his/her interaction with an intelligent decision-aid system. This calibration is achieved by varying the automation's transparency--the amount and utility of information provided to the human. The parameterization of the model is conducted using behavioral data collected through human-subject experiments, and three feedback control policies are experimentally validated and compared against a non-adaptive decision-aid system. The results show that human-automation team performance can be optimized when the transparency is dynamically updated based on the proposed control policy. This framework is a first step toward widespread design and implementation of real-time adaptive automation for use in human-machine interactions. Automation has become prevalent in the everyday lives of humans. However, despite significant technological advancements, human supervision and intervention are still necessary in almost all sectors of automation, ranging from manufacturing and transportation to disaster-management and healthcare [1]. Therefore, we expect that the future will be built around human-agent collectives [2] that will require efficient and successful interaction and coordination between humans and machines. It is well established that to achieve this coordination, human trust in automation plays a central role [3]-[5]. For example, the benefits of automation are lost when humans override automation due to a fundamental lack of trust [3], [5], and accidents may occur due to human mistrust in such systems [6]. Therefore, trust should be appropriately calibrated to avoid disuse or misuse of automation [4].