This study presents a semi-nonparametric Latent Class Choice Model (LCCM) with a flexible class membership component. The proposed model formulates the latent classes using mixture models as an alternative approach to the traditional random utility specification with the aim of comparing the two approaches on various measures including prediction accuracy and representation of heterogeneity in the choice process. Mixture models are parametric model-based clustering techniques that have been widely used in areas such as machine learning, data mining and patter recognition for clustering and classification problems. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is derived for the estimation of the proposed model. Using two different case studies on travel mode choice behavior, the proposed model is compared to traditional discrete choice models on the basis of parameter estimates' signs, value of time, statistical goodness-of-fit measures, and cross-validation tests. Results show that mixture models improve the overall performance of latent class choice models by providing better out-of-sample prediction accuracy in addition to better representations of heterogeneity without weakening the behavioral and economic interpretability of the choice models.

Extracting the rules of real-world biological multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. Biological agents generally have limited observation and mechanical constraints; however, most of the conventional data-driven models ignore such assumptions, resulting in lack of biological plausibility and model interpretability for behavioral analyses in biological and cognitive science. Here we propose sequential generative models with partial observation and mechanical constraints, which can visualize whose information the agents utilize and can generate biologically plausible actions. We formulate this as a decentralized multi-agent imitation learning problem, leveraging binary partial observation models with a Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization and policy models based on hierarchical variational recurrent neural networks with physical and biomechanical constraints. We investigate the empirical performances using real-world multi-person motion datasets from basketball and soccer games.

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges for standard Markov order detection methods and demand modelling techniques that explicitly account for the graph constraint. Adopting a multi-order modelling framework for paths, we develop a Bayesian learning technique that (i) more reliably detects the correct Markov order compared to a competing method based on the likelihood ratio test, (ii) requires considerably less data compared to methods using AIC or BIC, and (iii) is robust against partial knowledge of the underlying constraints. We further show that a recently published method that uses a likelihood ratio test has a tendency to overfit the true Markov order of paths, which is not the case for our Bayesian technique. Our method is important for data scientists analyzing patterns in categorical sequence data that are subject to (partially) known constraints, e.g. sequences with forbidden words, mobility trajectories and click stream data, or sequence data in bioinformatics. Addressing the key challenge of model selection, our work is further relevant for the growing body of research that emphasizes the need for higher-order models in network analysis.

The inaccessibility of controlled randomized trials due to inherent constraints in many fields of science has been a fundamental issue in causal inference. In this paper, we focus on distinguishing the cause from effect in the bivariate setting under limited observational data. Based on recent developments in meta learning as well as in causal inference, we introduce a novel generative model that allows distinguishing cause and effect in the small data setting. Using a learnt task variable that contains distributional information of each dataset, we propose an end-to-end algorithm that makes use of similar training datasets at test time. We demonstrate our method on various synthetic as well as real-world data and show that it is able to maintain high accuracy in detecting directions across varying dataset sizes.

As described in [1][2], time series data includes many kinds of real experimental data taken from various domains such as finance, medicine, scientific research (e.g., global warming, speech analysis, earthquakes), etc. Time series forecasting has many real applications in various areas such as forecasting of business (e.g., sales, stock), weather, decease, and others [2]. Statistical modeling and inference (e.g., ARIMA model) [1][2] is one of the popular methods for time series analysis and forecasting. The philosophy of Bayesian inference is to consider probability as a measure of believability in an event [3][4][5] and use Bayes' theorem to update the probability as more evidence or information becomes available, while the philosophy of frequentist inference considers probability as the long-run frequency of events [3]. Generally speaking, we can use the Frequentist inference only when a large number of data samples are available.

The Expected Free Energy (EFE) is a central quantity in the theory of active inference. It is the quantity that all active inference agents are mandated to minimize through action, and its decomposition into extrinsic and intrinsic value terms is key to the balance of exploration and exploitation that active inference agents evince. Despite its importance, the mathematical origins of this quantity and its relation to the Variational Free Energy (VFE) remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate the origins of the EFE in detail and show that it is not simply "the free energy in the future". We present a functional that we argue is the natural extension of the VFE, but which actively discourages exploratory behaviour, thus demonstrating that exploration does not directly follow from free energy minimization into the future. We then develop a novel objective, the Free-Energy of the Expected Future (FEEF), which possesses both the epistemic component of the EFE as well as an intuitive mathematical grounding as the divergence between predicted and desired futures.

These are the lecture notes for FAU's YouTube Lecture "Deep Learning". This is a full transcript of the lecture video & matching slides. We hope, you enjoy this as much as the videos. Of course, this transcript was created with deep learning techniques largely automatically and only minor manual modifications were performed. If you spot mistakes, please let us know!

Want to be a part of an elite team where our innovative technical solutions are delivered to customers that advance the state of the art while addressing long-term problems of importance to national security? At our Leidos' Multi-Spectrum Warfare Research and Analytics Systems (MSWRAS) Division, an organization in the Leidos Innovation Center (LInC), we are looking for you, our next Scientist who specializes in remote sensing data analytics. Join our team of Ph.D. level peers in designing and developing advanced technology-based solutions for contract research and development projects working in our Arlington, VA office. Fun roles you will have in this job: Describe instances of successful, proven, and demonstrable experience contributing to the technical work as part of cross-discipline teams in the development and integration of software-based solutions for competitive, contract-based applied research programs Work with teams composed of members from industry, small businesses, and academic-based researchers and should have experience working on projects focused on multiple technical fields such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, engineering, and software development and integration Describe how the work products to which they contributed had solved customers' problems in such domains as energy, health, and national security or in the commercial sector Work within the MSWRAS Division and across the LInC, performing basic and applied contract research and development projects both leading and working under the guidance of senior scientists and engineers. Processing, interpreting and analyzing large volumes of data collected by remote sensing platforms but may also include other types of phenomenological data such as field measurements, or weather data Independently design and undertake new research as well as partner in a team environment across organizations Contribute to the development of creative and innovative R&D approaches to solving major remote sensing analytics challenges and work with potential sponsors (customers or internal champions) to secure funding for new research efforts based on those topics Contribute to the productivity of teams composed of fellow researchers, data scientists, data engineers, and software engineers to execute complex R&D programs Under the guidance of a senior scientist or engineer, design and develop or integrate secure and scalable applications that are part of broader solutions, that are applicable across multiple domains.

Boltzmann machine is a powerful tool for modeling probability distributions that govern the training data. A thermal equilibrium state is typically used for Boltzmann machine learning to obtain a suitable probability distribution. The Boltzmann machine learning consists of calculating the gradient of the loss function given in terms of the thermal average, which is the most time consuming procedure. Here, we propose a method to implement the Boltzmann machine learning by using Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices. We prepare an initial pure state that contains all possible computational basis states with the same amplitude, and apply a variational imaginary time simulation. Readout of the state after the evolution in the computational basis approximates the probability distribution of the thermal equilibrium state that is used for the Boltzmann machine learning. We actually perform the numerical simulations of our scheme and confirm that the Boltzmann machine learning works well by our scheme.

Teleoperation of physically assistive machines is usually facilitated by interfaces that are low-dimensional and have unique physical mechanisms for their activation. Accidental deviations from intended user input commands due to motor limitations can potentially affect user satisfaction and task performance. In this paper, we present an assistance system that reasons about a human's intended actions during robot teleoperation in order to provide appropriate corrections for unintended behavior. We model the human's physical interaction with a control interface during robot teleoperation using the framework of dynamic Bayesian Networks in which we distinguish between intended and measured physical actions explicitly. By reasoning over the unobserved intentions using model-based inference techniques, our assistive system provides customized corrections on a user's issued commands. We present results from (1) a simulation-based study in which we validate our algorithm and (2) a 10-person human subject study in which we evaluate the performance of the proposed assistance paradigms. Our results suggest that (a) the corrective assistance paradigm helped to significantly reduce objective task effort as measured by task completion time and number of mode switches and (b) the assistance paradigms helped to reduce cognitive workload and user frustration and improve overall satisfaction.