Even before the recent George Floyd case, there has been much debate about the extent to which claims of systemic racism are supported by statistical evidence. For example (Ross 2015) claims that unarmed blacks are 3.5 times more likely to be shot by police than unarmed whites when adjusting for relative differences in population size. However, (Fryer 2016) - formally published later as (Fryer 2019) - found that there was no such racial disparity when the data were conditioned on people being stopped by police, and there was a similar conclusion in (Patty and Hanson 2020) that was produced in direct response to public concerns about the Floyd case. In response to Fryer, (Ross, Winterhalder, and McElreath 2018) argued that Fryer's analysis was compromised because it was essentially an example of Simpson's paradox (Simpson 1951; Bickel, Hammel, and O'Connell 1975; Fenton, Neil, and Constantinou 2019) whereby conclusions based on pooled statistics are reversed when drilling down into relevant subcategories. A new paper (Knox, Lowe, and Mummolo 2020) explains why Simpson's paradox is not the only statistical explanation for the apparently contradictory conclusions of Ross and Fryer.

Stochastic block models (SBM) are widely used in network science due to their interpretable structure that allows inference on groups of nodes having common connectivity patterns. Although providing a well established model-based approach for community detection, such formulations are still the object of intense research to address the key problem of inferring the unknown number of communities. This has motivated the development of several probabilistic mechanisms to characterize the node partition process, covering solutions with fixed, random and infinite number of communities. In this article we provide a unified view of all these formulations within a single extended stochastic block model (ESBM), that relies on Gibbs-type processes and encompasses most existing representations as special cases. Connections with Bayesian nonparametric literature open up new avenues that allow the natural inclusion of several unexplored options to model the nodes partition process and to incorporate node attributes in a principled manner. Among these new alternatives, we focus on the Gnedin process as an example of a probabilistic mechanism with desirable theoretical properties and nice empirical performance. A collapsed Gibbs sampler that can be applied to the whole ESBM class is proposed, and refined methods for estimation, uncertainty quantification and model assessment are outlined. The performance of ESBM is assessed in simulations and an application to bill co-sponsorship networks in the Italian parliament, where we find key hidden block structures and core-periphery patterns.

There has been increased interest in missing sensor data imputation, which is ubiquitous in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM) due to discontinuous sensing caused by sensor malfunction. To address this fundamental issue, this paper presents an incremental Bayesian tensor learning method for reconstruction of spatiotemporal missing data in SHM and forecasting of structural response. In particular, a spatiotemporal tensor is first constructed followed by Bayesian tensor factorization that extracts latent features for missing data imputation. To enable structural response forecasting based on incomplete sensing data, the tensor decomposition is further integrated with vector autoregression in an incremental learning scheme. The performance of the proposed approach is validated on continuous field-sensing data (including strain and temperature records) of a concrete bridge, based on the assumption that strain time histories are highly correlated to temperature recordings. The results indicate that the proposed probabilistic tensor learning approach is accurate and robust even in the presence of large rates of random missing, structured missing and their combination. The effect of rank selection on the imputation and prediction performance is also investigated. The results show that a better estimation accuracy can be achieved with a higher rank for random missing whereas a lower rank for structured missing.

There exist many forms of deep latent variable models, such as the variational autoencoder and adversarial autoencoder. Regardless of the specific class of model, there exists an implicit consensus that the latent distribution should be regularized towards the prior, even in the case where the prior distribution is learned. Upon investigating the effect of latent regularization on image generation our results indicate that in the case where a sufficiently expressive prior is learned, latent regularization is not necessary and may in fact be harmful insofar as image quality is concerned. We additionally investigate the benefit of learned priors on two common problems in computer vision: latent variable disentanglement, and diversity in image-to-image translation.

Markov logic networks (MLNs, Richardson and Domingos, 2006) are a statistical relational learning [Getoor and Taskar, 2007] framework for probabilistic modelling of complex relational structures such as social and biological networks, molecules etc. In general, inference in MLNs is intractable. Lifted inference refers to a set of methods developed in the literature which exploit symmetries for making probabilistic inference more tractable, e.g.

This paper studies the problem of information freshness-aware task offloading in an air-ground integrated multi-access edge computing system, which is deployed by an infrastructure provider (InP). A third-party real-time application service provider provides computing services to the subscribed mobile users (MUs) with the limited communication and computation resources from the InP based on a long-term business agreement. Due to the dynamic characteristics, the interactions among the MUs are modelled by a non-cooperative stochastic game, in which the control policies are coupled and each MU aims to selfishly maximize its own expected long-term payoff. To address the Nash equilibrium solutions, we propose that each MU behaves in accordance with the local system states and conjectures, based on which the stochastic game is transformed into a single-agent Markov decision process. Moreover, we derive a novel online deep reinforcement learning (RL) scheme that adopts two separate double deep Q-networks for each MU to approximate the Q-factor and the post-decision Q-factor. Using the proposed deep RL scheme, each MU in the system is able to make decisions without a priori statistical knowledge of dynamics. Numerical experiments examine the potentials of the proposed scheme in balancing the age of information and the energy consumption.

While neural networks excel at predicting a single-point estimate of a given target for complex machine learning problems, an open research question is the design of neural generative models able to output a predictive distribution, that can capture the inherent variability of the observations or the model's level of confidence in its predictions. The main motivation behind uncertainty quantification is the design of AI systems for critical applications that are safe, and are mitigating risks while automatizing decision-making. On one hand, Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainty; however, such models generally require prohibitive computational costs, which make them not widely used in practice. On the other hand, frequentist methods and metrics have been developed for confidence estimation in neural networks, in particular in the classification setting [Brosse et al., 2020], [Corbière et al., 2019].

Anomaly estimation, or the problem of finding a subset of a dataset that differs from the rest of the dataset, is a classic problem in machine learning and data mining. In both theoretical work and in applications, the anomaly is assumed to have a specific structure defined by membership in an $\textit{anomaly family}$. For example, in temporal data the anomaly family may be time intervals, while in network data the anomaly family may be connected subgraphs. The most prominent approach for anomaly estimation is to compute the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the anomaly. However, it was recently observed that for some anomaly families, the MLE is an asymptotically $\textit{biased}$ estimator of the anomaly. Here, we demonstrate that the bias of the MLE depends on the size of the anomaly family. We prove that if the number of sets in the anomaly family that contain the anomaly is sub-exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically unbiased. At the same time, we provide empirical evidence that the converse is also true: if the number of such sets is exponential, then the MLE is asymptotically biased. Our analysis unifies a number of earlier results on the bias of the MLE for specific anomaly families, including intervals, submatrices, and connected subgraphs. Next, we derive a new anomaly estimator using a mixture model, and we empirically demonstrate that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased regardless of the size of the anomaly family. We illustrate the benefits of our estimator on both simulated disease outbreak data and a real-world highway traffic dataset.

In state of the art model-free off-policy deep reinforcement learning, a replay memory is used to store past experience and derive all network updates. Even if both state and action spaces are continuous, the replay memory only holds a finite number of transitions. We represent these transitions in a data graph and link its structure to soft divergence. By selecting a subgraph with a favorable structure, we construct a simplified Markov Decision Process for which exact Q-values can be computed efficiently as more data comes in. The subgraph and its associated Q-values can be represented as a QGraph. We show that the Q-value for each transition in the simplified MDP is a lower bound of the Q-value for the same transition in the original continuous Q-learning problem. By using these lower bounds in temporal difference learning, our method QG-DDPG is less prone to soft divergence and exhibits increased sample efficiency while being more robust to hyperparameters. QGraphs also retain information from transitions that have already been overwritten in the replay memory, which can decrease the algorithm's sensitivity to the replay memory capacity.

We introduce in this work a new method for online approximate Bayesian learning, whose main idea is to approximate the sequence $(\pi_t)_{t\geq 1}$ of posterior distributions by a sequence $(\tilde{\pi}_t)_{t\geq 1}$ which (i) can be estimated in an online fashion using sequential Monte Carlo methods and (ii) is shown to converge to the same distribution as the sequence $(\pi_t)_{t\geq 1}$, under weak assumptions on the statistical model at hand. In its simplest version, the proposed approach amounts to take for $(\tilde{\pi}_t)_{t\geq 1}$ the sequence of filtering distributions associated to a particular state-space model, and to approximate this sequence using a standard particle filter algorithm. We illustrate on several challenging examples the benefits of this procedure for online approximate Bayesian parameter inference, and with one real data example we show that its online predictive performance can significantly outperform that of stochastic gradient descent and of streaming variational Bayes.