The use of sophisticated machine learning models for critical decision making is faced with a challenge that these models are often applied as a "black-box". This has led to an increased interest in interpretable machine learning, where post hoc interpretation presents a useful mechanism for generating interpretations of complex learning models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach underpinned by an extended framework of Bayesian networks for generating post hoc interpretations of a black-box predictive model. The framework supports extracting a Bayesian network as an approximation of the black-box model for a specific prediction. Compared to the existing post hoc interpretation methods, the contribution of our approach is three-fold. Firstly, the extracted Bayesian network, as a probabilistic graphical model, can provide interpretations about not only what input features but also why these features contributed to a prediction. Secondly, for complex decision problems with many features, a Markov blanket can be generated from the extracted Bayesian network to provide interpretations with a focused view on those input features that directly contributed to a prediction. Thirdly, the extracted Bayesian network enables the identification of four different rules which can inform the decision-maker about the confidence level in a prediction, thus helping the decision-maker assess the reliability of predictions learned by a black-box model. We implemented the proposed approach, applied it in the context of two well-known public datasets and analysed the results, which are made available in an open-source repository.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) experiments are commonly performed in simulated environment, due to the tremendous training sample demand from deep neural networks. However, model-based Deep Bayesian RL, such as Deep PILCO, allows a robot to learn good policies within few trials in the real world. Although Deep PILCO has been applied on many single-robot tasks, in here we propose, for the first time, an application of Deep PILCO on a multi-robot confrontation game, and compare the algorithm with a model-free Deep RL algorithm, Deep Q-Learning. Our experiments show that Deep PILCO significantly outperforms Deep Q-Learning in learning efficiency and scalability. We conclude that sample-efficient Deep Bayesian learning algorithms have great prospects on competitive games where the agent aims to win the opponents in the real world, as opposed to simulated applications.

We present a novel adaptation of active learning to graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) under non-Gaussian Bayesian models. We present an approximation of non-Gaussian distributions to adapt previously Gaussian-based acquisition functions to these more general cases. We develop an efficient rank-one update for applying "look-ahead" based methods as well as model retraining. We also introduce a novel "model change" acquisition function based on these approximations that further expands the available collection of active learning acquisition functions for such methods.

We study the problem usually referred to as group testing in the context of COVID-19. Given n samples collected from patients, how should we select and test mixtures of samples to maximize information and minimize the number of tests? Group testing is a well-studied problem with several appealing solutions, but recent biological studies impose practical constraints for COVID-19 that are incompatible with traditional methods. Furthermore, existing methods use unnecessarily restrictive solutions, which were devised for settings with more memory and compute constraints than the problem at hand. This results in poor utility. In the new setting, we obtain strong solutions for small values of n using evolutionary strategies. We then develop a new method combining Bloom filters with belief propagation to scale to larger values of n (more than 100) with good empirical results. We also present a more accurate decoding algorithm that is tailored for specific COVID-19 settings. This work demonstrates the practical gap between dedicated algorithms and well-known generic solutions. Our efforts results in a new and practical multiplex method yielding strong empirical performance without mixing more than a chosen number of patients into the same probe. Finally, we briefly discuss adaptive methods, casting them into the framework of adaptive sub-modularity.

In this thesis, we disentangle the generalized Gauss-Newton and approximate inference for Bayesian deep learning. The generalized Gauss-Newton method is an optimization method that is used in several popular Bayesian deep learning algorithms. Algorithms that combine the Gauss-Newton method with the Laplace and Gaussian variational approximation have recently led to state-of-the-art results in Bayesian deep learning. While the Laplace and Gaussian variational approximation have been studied extensively, their interplay with the Gauss-Newton method remains unclear. Recent criticism of priors and posterior approximations in Bayesian deep learning further urges the need for a deeper understanding of practical algorithms. The individual analysis of the Gauss-Newton method and Laplace and Gaussian variational approximations for neural networks provides both theoretical insight and new practical algorithms. We find that the Gauss-Newton method simplifies the underlying probabilistic model significantly. In particular, the combination of the Gauss-Newton method with approximate inference can be cast as inference in a linear or Gaussian process model. The Laplace and Gaussian variational approximation can subsequently provide a posterior approximation to these simplified models. This new disentangled understanding of recent Bayesian deep learning algorithms also leads to new methods: first, the connection to Gaussian processes enables new function-space inference algorithms. Second, we present a marginal likelihood approximation of the underlying probabilistic model to tune neural network hyperparameters. Finally, the identified underlying models lead to different methods to compute predictive distributions. In fact, we find that these prediction methods for Bayesian neural networks often work better than the default choice and solve a common issue with the Laplace approximation.

This paper addresses the task of score following in sheet music given as unprocessed images. While existing work either relies on OMR software to obtain a computer-readable score representation, or crucially relies on prepared sheet image excerpts, we propose the first system that directly performs score following in full-page, completely unprocessed sheet images. Based on incoming audio and a given image of the score, our system directly predicts the most likely position within the page that matches the audio, outperforming current state-of-the-art image-based score followers in terms of alignment precision. We also compare our method to an OMR-based approach and empirically show that it can be a viable alternative to such a system.

We extend the WSINDy (Weak SINDy) method of sparse recovery introduced previously by the authors (arXiv:2005.04339) to the setting of partial differential equations (PDEs). As in the case of ODE discovery, the weak form replaces pointwise approximation of derivatives with local integrations against test functions and achieves effective machine-precision recovery of weights from noise-free data (i.e. below the tolerance of the simulation scheme) as well as natural robustness to noise without the use of noise filtering. The resulting WSINDy_PDE algorithm uses separable test functions implemented efficiently via convolutions for discovery of PDE models with computational complexity $O(NM)$ from data points with $M = N^{D+1}$ points, or $N$ points in each of $D+1$ dimensions. We demonstrate on several notoriously challenging PDEs the speed and accuracy with which WSINDy_PDE recovers the correct models from datasets with surprisingly large levels noise (often with levels of noise much greater than 10%).

Ideal point models analyze lawmakers' votes to quantify their political positions, or ideal points. But votes are not the only way to express a political position. Lawmakers also give speeches, release press statements, and post tweets. In this paper, we introduce the text-based ideal point model (TBIP), an unsupervised probabilistic topic model that analyzes texts to quantify the political positions of its authors. We demonstrate the TBIP with two types of politicized text data: U.S. Senate speeches and senator tweets. Though the model does not analyze their votes or political affiliations, the TBIP separates lawmakers by party, learns interpretable politicized topics, and infers ideal points close to the classical vote-based ideal points. One benefit of analyzing texts, as opposed to votes, is that the TBIP can estimate ideal points of anyone who authors political texts, including non-voting actors. To this end, we use it to study tweets from the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Using only the texts of their tweets, it identifies them along an interpretable progressive-to-moderate spectrum.

Bias is error due to erroneous or overly simplistic assumptions in the learning algorithm you're using. This can lead to the model underfitting your data, making it hard for it to have high predictive accuracy and for you to generalize your knowledge from the training set to the test set. Variance is error due to too much complexity in the learning algorithm you're using. This leads to the algorithm being highly sensitive to high degrees of variation in your training data, which can lead your model to overfit the data. You'll be carrying too much noise from your training data for your model to be very useful for your test data.

In the last decade machine learning becomes one of the hottest topics in the world, Andrew Ng considers it as the new electricity. In today's world machine learning powers many of the services we use -- recommendation systems like those on Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify; search engines like Google and Baidu; social-media feeds like Facebook and Twitter; voice assistants like Siri and Alexa. Having known that, let's see how machine learning works. In simple terms, machine learning algorithms use statistics to find patterns in massive amounts of data. The data are also known as the dataset, it's could contain images, texts, words, and clicks.