A Markov chain is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.[1][2][3] A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. Markov chains have many applications as statistical models of real-world processes,[1][4][5][6] such as studying cruise control systems in motor vehicles, queues or lines of customers arriving at an airport, currency exchange rates and animal population dynamics.[7] Markov processes are the basis for general stochastic simulation methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, which are used for simulating sampling from complex probability distributions, and have found application in Bayesian statistics and artificial intelligence.[7][8][9] The adjective Markovian is used to describe something that is related to a Markov process.[1][10] A Markov process is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property[1] (sometimes characterized as "memorylessness"). In simpler terms, it is a process for which predictions can be made regarding future outcomes based solely on its present state and--most importantly--such predictions are just as good as the ones that could be made knowing the process's full history.[11] In other words, conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past states are independent. A Markov chain is a type of Markov process that has either a discrete state space or a discrete index set (often representing time), but the precise definition of a Markov chain varies.[12]

In several research problems we face probabilistic sequences of inputs (e.g., sequence of stimuli) from which an agent generates a corresponding sequence of responses and it is of interest to model/discover some kind of relation between them. To model such relation in the context of statistical learning in neuroscience, a new class of stochastic process have been introduced [5], namely sequences of random objects driven by context tree models. In this paper we introduce a freely available Matlab toolbox (SeqROCTM) that implements three model selection methods to make inference about the parameters of this kind of stochastic process.

In this paper we present ISA, an approach for learning and exploiting subgoals in episodic reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. ISA interleaves reinforcement learning with the induction of a subgoal automaton, an automaton whose edges are labeled by the task's subgoals expressed as propositional logic formulas over a set of high-level events. A subgoal automaton also consists of two special states: a state indicating the successful completion of the task, and a state indicating that the task has finished without succeeding. A state-of-the-art inductive logic programming system is used to learn a subgoal automaton that covers the traces of high-level events observed by the RL agent. When the currently exploited automaton does not correctly recognize a trace, the automaton learner induces a new automaton that covers that trace. The interleaving process guarantees the induction of automata with the minimum number of states, and applies a symmetry breaking mechanism to shrink the search space whilst remaining complete. We evaluate ISA in several grid-world and continuous state space problems using different RL algorithms that leverage the automaton structures. We provide an in-depth empirical analysis of the automaton learning process performance in terms of the traces, the symmetric breaking and specific restrictions imposed on the final learnable automaton. For each class of RL problem, we show that the learned automata can be successfully exploited to learn policies that reach the goal, achieving an average reward comparable to the case where automata are not learned but handcrafted and given beforehand.

This paper presents a 3-step system that estimates the real-time energy expenditure of an individual in a non-intrusive way. First, using the user's smart-phone's sensors, we build a Decision Tree model to recognize his physical activity (\textit{running}, \textit{standing}, ...). Then, we use the detected physical activity, the time and the user's speed to infer his daily activity (\textit{watching TV}, \textit{going to the bathroom}, ...) through the use of a reinforcement learning environment, the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process framework. Once the daily activities are recognized, we translate this information into energy expenditure using the compendium of physical activities. By successfully detecting 8 physical activities at 90\%, we reached an overall accuracy of 80\% in recognizing 17 different daily activities. This result leads us to estimate the energy expenditure of the user with a mean error of 26\% of the expected estimation.

Deep active inference has been proposed as a scalable approach to perception and action that deals with large policy and state spaces. However, current models are limited to fully observable domains. In this paper, we describe a deep active inference model that can learn successful policies directly from high-dimensional sensory inputs. The deep learning architecture optimizes a variant of the expected free energy and encodes the continuous state representation by means of a variational autoencoder. We show, in the OpenAI benchmark, that our approach has comparable or better performance than deep Q-learning, a state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning algorithm.

Abstract--In this paper, several Collaborative Filtering (CF) approaches with latent variable methods were studied using user-item interactions to capture important hidden variations of the sparse customer purchasing behaviors. The latent factors are used to generalize the purchasing pattern of the customers and to provide product recommendations. CF with Neural Collaborative Filtering (NCF) was shown to produce the highest Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) performance on the real-world proprietary dataset provided by a large parts supply company. Different hyperparameters were tested using Bayesian Optimization (BO) for applicability in the CF framework. External data sources like click-data and metrics like Clickthrough Rate (CTR) were reviewed for potential extensions to the work presented. The work shown in this paper provides techniques the Company can use to provide product recommendations to enhance revenues, attract new customers, and gain advantages over competitors. With today's ever-increasing ease of access to the internet more advertisements, attract new clients, and retain existing and information, we have reached a point of information clients [6].

We introduce a new nonparametric density estimator inspired by Markov Chains, and generalizing the well-known Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). Our estimator presents several benefits with respect to the usual ones and can be used straightforwardly as a foundation in all density-based algorithms. We prove the consistency of our estimator and we find it typically outperforms KDE in situations of large sample size and high dimensionality. We also employ our density estimator to build a local outlier detector, showing very promising results when applied to some realistic datasets.

Agent-based methods allow for defining simple rules that generate complex group behaviors. The governing rules of such models are typically set a priori and parameters are tuned from observed behavior trajectories. Instead of making simplifying assumptions across all anticipated scenarios, inverse reinforcement learning provides inference on the short-term (local) rules governing long term behavior policies by using properties of a Markov decision process. We use the computationally efficient linearly-solvable Markov decision process to learn the local rules governing collective movement for a simulation of the self propelled-particle (SPP) model and a data application for a captive guppy population. The estimation of the behavioral decision costs is done in a Bayesian framework with basis function smoothing. We recover the true costs in the SPP simulation and find the guppies value collective movement more than targeted movement toward shelter.

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by the maximum marginal likelihood estimator can be regarded as a variational approximation to a hierarchical Bayes posterior distribution. This connection between empirical Bayes and variational Bayes allows us to leverage the recent results in the variational Bayes literature, and directly obtains the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions from a variational perspective. For a more general hyperparameter set that is not necessarily discrete, we introduce a new technique called "prior decomposition" to deal with prior distributions that can be written as convex combinations of probability measures whose supports are low-dimensional subspaces. This leads to generalized versions of the classical "prior mass and testing" conditions for the convergence rates of empirical Bayes. Our theory is applied to a number of statistical estimation problems including nonparametric density estimation and sparse linear regression.

Machine learning (ML) offers a collection of powerful approaches for detecting and modeling associations, often applied to data having a large number of features and/or complex associations. Currently, there are many tools to facilitate implementing custom ML analyses (e.g. scikit-learn). Interest is also increasing in automated ML packages, which can make it easier for non-experts to apply ML and have the potential to improve model performance. ML permeates most subfields of biomedical research with varying levels of rigor and correct usage. Tremendous opportunities offered by ML are frequently offset by the challenge of assembling comprehensive analysis pipelines, and the ease of ML misuse. In this work we have laid out and assembled a complete, rigorous ML analysis pipeline focused on binary classification (i.e. case/control prediction), and applied this pipeline to both simulated and real world data. At a high level, this 'automated' but customizable pipeline includes a) exploratory analysis, b) data cleaning and transformation, c) feature selection, d) model training with 9 established ML algorithms, each with hyperparameter optimization, and e) thorough evaluation, including appropriate metrics, statistical analyses, and novel visualizations. This pipeline organizes the many subtle complexities of ML pipeline assembly to illustrate best practices to avoid bias and ensure reproducibility. Additionally, this pipeline is the first to compare established ML algorithms to 'ExSTraCS', a rule-based ML algorithm with the unique capability of interpretably modeling heterogeneous patterns of association. While designed to be widely applicable we apply this pipeline to an epidemiological investigation of established and newly identified risk factors for pancreatic cancer to evaluate how different sources of bias might be handled by ML algorithms.