As I pledged in my last article that I would be writing about algorithms in next article. Algorithms are the core to building machine learning models and here I am providing details about most of the algorithms used for supervised learning to provide you with intuitive understanding for where to use it and where not to. By the end of this article, you will be adept at algorithms from intuitive level of understanding. So, folks here we go. Naive Bayes are the algorithms used for classification based on Bayes theorem and it is the foundational algorithm to know at most for machine learning.

Reinforcement Learning algorithms require a large number of samples to solve complex tasks with sparse and delayed rewards. Complex tasks can often be hierarchically decomposed into sub-tasks. A step in the Q-function can be associated with solving a sub-task, where the expectation of the return increases. RUDDER has been introduced to identify these steps and then redistribute reward to them, thus immediately giving reward if sub-tasks are solved. Since the problem of delayed rewards is mitigated, learning is considerably sped up. However, for complex tasks, current exploration strategies as deployed in RUDDER struggle with discovering episodes with high rewards. Therefore, we assume that episodes with high rewards are given as demonstrations and do not have to be discovered by exploration. Typically the number of demonstrations is small and RUDDER's LSTM model as a deep learning method does not learn well. Hence, we introduce Align-RUDDER, which is RUDDER with two major modifications. First, Align-RUDDER assumes that episodes with high rewards are given as demonstrations, replacing RUDDER's safe exploration and lessons replay buffer. Second, we replace RUDDER's LSTM model by a profile model that is obtained from multiple sequence alignment of demonstrations. Profile models can be constructed from as few as two demonstrations as known from bioinformatics. Align-RUDDER inherits the concept of reward redistribution, which considerably reduces the delay of rewards, thus speeding up learning. Align-RUDDER outperforms competitors on complex artificial tasks with delayed reward and few demonstrations. On the MineCraft ObtainDiamond task, Align-RUDDER is able to mine a diamond, though not frequently. Github: https://github.com/ml-jku/align-rudder, YouTube: https://youtu.be/HO-_8ZUl-UY

Can an agent learn efficiently in a noisy and self adapting environment with sequential, non-stationary and non-homogeneous observations? Through trading bots, we illustrate how Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) can tackle this challenge. Our contributions are threefold: (i) the use of contextual information also referred to as augmented state in DRL, (ii) the impact of a one period lag between observations and actions that is more realistic for an asset management environment, (iii) the implementation of a new repetitive train test method called walk forward analysis, similar in spirit to cross validation for time series. Although our experiment is on trading bots, it can easily be translated to other bot environments that operate in sequential environment with regime changes and noisy data. Our experiment for an augmented asset manager interested in finding the best portfolio for hedging strategies shows that AAMDRL achieves superior returns and lower risk.

The emergence of Big Data raises the question of how to model economic relations when there is a large number of possible explanatory variables. We revisit the issue by comparing the possibility of using dense or sparse models in a Bayesian approach, allowing for variable selection and shrinkage. More specifically, we discuss the results reached by Giannone, Lenza, and Primiceri (2020) through a "Spike-and-Slab" prior, which suggest an "illusion of sparsity" in economic data, as no clear patterns of sparsity could be detected. We make a further revision of the posterior distributions of the model, and propose three experiments to evaluate the robustness of the adopted prior distribution. We find that the pattern of sparsity is sensitive to the prior distribution of the regression coefficients, and present evidence that the model indirectly induces variable selection and shrinkage, which suggests that the "illusion of sparsity" could be, itself, an illusion. Code is available on github.com/bfava/IllusionOfIllusion.

We develop in this paper a framework of empirical gain maximization (EGM) to address the robust regression problem where heavy-tailed noise or outliers may present in the response variable. The idea of EGM is to approximate the density function of the noise distribution instead of approximating the truth function directly as usual. Unlike the classical maximum likelihood estimation that encourages equal importance of all observations and could be problematic in the presence of abnormal observations, EGM schemes can be interpreted from a minimum distance estimation viewpoint and allow the ignorance of those observations. Furthermore, it is shown that several well-known robust nonconvex regression paradigms, such as Tukey regression and truncated least square regression, can be reformulated into this new framework. We then develop a learning theory for EGM, by means of which a unified analysis can be conducted for these well-established but not fully-understood regression approaches. Resulting from the new framework, a novel interpretation of existing bounded nonconvex loss functions can be concluded. Within this new framework, the two seemingly irrelevant terminologies, the well-known Tukey's biweight loss for robust regression and the triweight kernel for nonparametric smoothing, are closely related. More precisely, it is shown that the Tukey's biweight loss can be derived from the triweight kernel. Similarly, other frequently employed bounded nonconvex loss functions in machine learning such as the truncated square loss, the Geman-McClure loss, and the exponential squared loss can also be reformulated from certain smoothing kernels in statistics. In addition, the new framework enables us to devise new bounded nonconvex loss functions for robust learning.

Abstract: Andersen dynamics is a standard method for molecular simulations, and a precursor of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm used in MCMC inference. The stochastic process corresponding to Andersen dynamics is a PDMP (piecewise deterministic Markov process) that iterates between Hamiltonian flows and velocity randomizations of randomly selected particles. Both from the viewpoint of molecular dynamics and MCMC inference, a basic question is to understand the convergence to equilibrium of this PDMP particularly in high dimension. Here we present couplings to obtain sharp convergence bounds in the Wasserstein sense that do not require global convexity of the underlying potential energy. October 1, 2020 1. Introduction A common task in molecular dynamics is to simulate a molecular system at a specified temperature [3, 27].

ParaMonte (standing for Parallel Monte Carlo) is a serial and MPI/Coarray-parallelized library of Monte Carlo routines for sampling mathematical objective functions of arbitrary-dimensions, in particular, the posterior distributions of Bayesian models in data science, Machine Learning, and scientific inference. The ParaMonte library has been developed with the design goal of unifying the **automation**, **accessibility**, **high-performance**, **scalability**, and **reproducibility** of Monte Carlo simulations. The current implementation of the library includes **ParaDRAM**, a **Para**llel **D**elyaed-**R**ejection **A**daptive **M**etropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, accessible from a wide range of programming languages including C, C++, Fortran, with a unified Application Programming Interface and simulation environment across all supported programming languages. The ParaMonte library is MIT-licensed and is permanently located and maintained at [https://github.com/cdslaborg/paramonte](https://github.com/cdslaborg/paramonte).

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension of spike-and-slab priors for dynamic models. This is done by assigning appropriate Markov switching priors for the time-varying coefficients' variances, extending the previous work of Ishwaran and Rao (2005). Furthermore, we investigate different priors, including the common Inverted gamma prior for the process variances, and other mixture prior distributions such as Gamma priors for both the spike and the slab, which leads to a mixture of Normal-Gammas priors (Griffin ad Brown, 2010) for the coefficients. In this sense, our prior can be view as a dynamic variable selection prior which induces either smoothness (through the slab) or shrinkage towards zero (through the spike) at each time point. The MCMC method used for posterior computation uses Markov latent variables that can assume binary regimes at each time point to generate the coefficients' variances. In that way, our model is a dynamic mixture model, thus, we could use the algorithm of Gerlach et al (2000) to generate the latent processes without conditioning on the states. Finally, our approach is exemplified through simulated examples and a real data application.

This work targets the identification of a class of models for hybrid dynamical systems characterized by nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components, with finite-dimensional polynomial expansions, and by a Markovian switching mechanism. The estimation of the model parameters is performed under a probabilistic framework via Expectation Maximization, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values and transition probabilities. Discrete mode classification and NARX regression tasks are disentangled within the iterations. Soft-labels are assigned to latent states on the trajectories by averaging over the state posteriors and updated using the parametrization obtained from the previous maximization phase. Then, NARXs parameters are repeatedly fitted by solving weighted regression subproblems through a cyclical coordinate descent approach with coordinate-wise minimization. Moreover, we investigate a two stage selection scheme, based on a l1-norm bridge estimation followed by hard-thresholding, to achieve parsimonious models through selection of the polynomial expansion. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a SMNARX problem composed by three nonlinear sub-models with specific regressors.

Hybrid system identification is a key tool to achieve reliable models of Cyber-Physical Systems from data. PieceWise Affine models guarantees universal approximation, local linearity and equivalence to other classes of hybrid system. Still, PWA identification is a challenging problem, requiring the concurrent solution of regression and classification tasks. In this work, we focus on the identification of PieceWise Auto Regressive with eXogenous input models with arbitrary regions (NPWARX), thus not restricted to polyhedral domains, and characterized by discontinuous maps. To this end, we propose a method based on a probabilistic mixture model, where the discrete state is represented through a multinomial distribution conditioned by the input regressors. The architecture is conceived following the Mixture of Expert concept, developed within the machine learning field. To achieve nonlinear partitioning, we parametrize the discriminant function using a neural network. Then, the parameters of both the ARX submodels and the classifier are concurrently estimated by maximizing the likelihood of the overall model using Expectation Maximization. The proposed method is demonstrated on a nonlinear piece-wise problem with discontinuous maps.