We present the Sum-Product Probabilistic Language (SPPL), a new system that automatically delivers exact solutions to a broad range of probabilistic inference queries. SPPL symbolically represents the full distribution on execution traces specified by a probabilistic program using a generalization of sum-product networks. SPPL handles continuous and discrete distributions, many-to-one numerical transformations, and a query language that includes general predicates on random variables. We formalize SPPL in terms of a novel translation strategy from probabilistic programs to a semantic domain of sum-product representations, present new algorithms for exactly conditioning on and computing probabilities of queries, and prove their soundness under the semantics. We present techniques for improving the scalability of translation and inference by automatically exploiting conditional independences and repeated structure in SPPL programs. We implement a prototype of SPPL with a modular architecture and evaluate it on a suite of common benchmarks, which establish that our system is up to 3500x faster than state-of-the-art systems for fairness verification; up to 1000x faster than state-of-the-art symbolic algebra techniques; and can compute exact probabilities of rare events in milliseconds.

We propose a novel data-driven approach to solving a classical statistical mechanics problem: given data on collective motion of particles, characterise the set of free energies associated with the system of particles. We demonstrate empirically that the particle data contains all the information necessary to infer a free energy. While traditional physical modelling seeks to construct analytically tractable approximations, the proposed approach leverages modern Bayesian computational capabilities to accomplish this in a purely data-driven fashion. The Bayesian paradigm permits us to combine underpinning physical principles with simulation data to obtain uncertainty-quantified predictions of the free energy, in the form of a probability distribution over the family of free energies consistent with the observed particle data. In the present work we focus on classical statistical mechanical systems with excluded volume interactions. Using standard coarse-graining methods, our results can be made applicable to systems with realistic attractive-repulsive interactions. We validate our method on a paradigmatic and computationally cheap case of a one-dimensional fluid. With the appropriate particle data, it is possible to learn canonical and grand-canonical representations of the underlying physical system. Extensions to higher-dimensional systems are conceptually straightforward.

This paper addresses the problem of model-free reinforcement learning for Robust Markov Decision Process (RMDP) with large state spaces. The goal of the RMDPs framework is to find a policy that is robust against the parameter uncertainties due to the mismatch between the simulator model and real-world settings. We first propose Robust Least Squares Policy Evaluation algorithm, which is a multi-step online model-free learning algorithm for policy evaluation. We prove the convergence of this algorithm using stochastic approximation techniques. We then propose Robust Least Squares Policy Iteration (RLSPI) algorithm for learning the optimal robust policy. We also give a general weighted Euclidean norm bound on the error (closeness to optimality) of the resulting policy. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our RLSPI algorithm on some benchmark problems from OpenAI Gym.

Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) 1 Introduction is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a statistical BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of method proposed by Chipman et al (2010) that has trees that work as weak learners and is very flexible for become popular in recent years due to its competitive predicting in the presence of non-linearity and highorder performance on regression and classification problems, interactions. In this paper, we introduce an extension when compared to other supervised machine learning of BART, called Model Trees BART (MOTR-methods, such as Random Forests (RF) (Breiman, 2001) BART), that considers piecewise linear functions at node and Gradient Boosting (GB) (Friedman, 2001). In MOTR-BART, differs from other tree-based methods as it controls the rather than having a unique value at node level for the structure of each tree via a prior distribution and generates prediction, a linear predictor is estimated considering the predictions via an MCMC backfitting algorithm the covariates that have been used as the split variables that is responsible for accepting and rejecting the in the corresponding tree. In our approach, local linearities proposed trees along the iterations.

Bayesian bandits using Thompson Sampling have seen increasing success in recent years. Yet existing value models (of rewards) are misspecified on many real-world problem. We demonstrate this on the User Experience Optimization (UXO) problem, providing a novel formulation as a restless, sleeping bandit with unobserved confounders plus optional stopping. Our case studies show how common misspecifications can lead to sub-optimal rewards, and we provide model extensions to address these, along with a scientific model building process practitioners can adopt or adapt to solve their own unique problems. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the effects of overdispersion on bandit explore/exploit efficacy, tying the common notions of under- and over-confidence to over- and under-exploration, respectively. We also present the first model to exploit cointegration in a restless bandit, demonstrating that finite regret and fast and consistent optional stopping are possible by moving beyond simpler windowing, discounting, and drift models.

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. This paper proposes a method called PA-POMCPOW to sample a subset of the action space that provides varying mixtures of exploitation and exploration for inclusion in a search tree. The proposed method first evaluates the action space according to a score function that is a linear combination of expected reward and expected information gain. The actions with the highest score are then added to the search tree during tree expansion. Experiments show that PA-POMCPOW is able to outperform existing state-of-the-art solvers on problems with large discrete action spaces.

Deep neural networks can achieve great successes when presented with large data sets and sufficient computational resources. However, their ability to learn new concepts quickly is quite limited. Meta-learning is one approach to address this issue, by enabling the network to learn how to learn. The exciting field of Deep Meta-Learning advances at great speed, but lacks a unified, insightful overview of current techniques. This work presents just that. After providing the reader with a theoretical foundation, we investigate and summarize key methods, which are categorized into i) metric-, ii) model-, and iii) optimization-based techniques. In addition, we identify the main open challenges, such as performance evaluations on heterogeneous benchmarks, and reduction of the computational costs of meta-learning.

Reinforcement learning (RL) studies the class of problems where an agent maximizes its cumulative reward through sequential interaction with an unknown but fixed environment, usually modeled by a Markov Decision Process (MDP). At each time step, the agent takes an action, receives a random reward drawn from a reward function, and then the environment transitions to a new state according to an unknown transition kernel. In classical RL problems, the transition kernel and the reward functions are assumed to be time-invariant. This stationary model, however, cannot capture the phenomenon that in many real-world decision-making problems, the environment, including both the transition dynamics and the reward functions, is inherently evolving over time. Non-stationarity exists in a wide range of applications, including online advertisement auctions (Cai et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2019), dynamic pricing (Board, 2008; Chawla et al., 2016), traffic management (Chen et al., 2020), healthcare operations (Shortreed et al., 2011), and inventory control (Agrawal & Jia, 2019). Among the many intriguing applications, we specifically emphasize two research areas that can significantly benefit from progress on non-stationary RL, yet their connections have been largely overlooked in the literature. The first one is sequential transfer in RL (Tirinzoni et al., 2020) or multitask RL Brunskill & Li (2013).

In this article, I describe agent-centered search (also called real-time search or local search) and illustrate this planning paradigm with examples. Agent-centered search methods interleave planning and plan execution and restrict planning to the part of the domain around the current state of the agent, for example, the current location of a mobile robot or the current board position of a game. These methods can execute actions in the presence of time constraints and often have a small sum of planning and execution cost, both because they trade off planning and execution cost and because they allow agents to gather information early in nondeterministic domains, which reduces the amount of planning they have to perform for unencountered situations. These advantages become important as more intelligent systems are interfaced with the world and have to operate autonomously in complex environments. Agent-centered search methods have been applied to a variety of domains, including traditional search, strips-type planning, moving-target search, planning with totally and partially observable Markov decision process models, reinforcement learning, constraint satisfaction, and robot navigation.

This paper focuses on cooperative value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) in the paradigm of centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE). Current state-of-the-art value-based MARL methods leverage CTDE to learn a centralized joint-action value function as a monotonic mixing of each agent's utility function, which enables easy decentralization. However, this monotonic restriction leads to inefficient exploration in tasks with nonmonotonic returns due to suboptimal approximations of the values of joint actions. To address this, we present a novel MARL approach called Universal Value Exploration (UneVEn), which uses universal successor features (USFs) to learn policies of tasks related to the target task, but with simpler reward functions in a sample efficient manner. UneVEn uses novel action-selection schemes between randomly sampled related tasks during exploration, which enables the monotonic joint-action value function of the target task to place more importance on useful joint actions. Empirical results on a challenging cooperative predator-prey task requiring significant coordination amongst agents show that UneVEn significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.