Federated learning is typically approached as an optimization problem, where the goal is to minimize a global loss function by distributing computation across client devices that possess local data and specify different parts of the global objective. We present an alternative perspective and formulate federated learning as a posterior inference problem, where the goal is to infer a global posterior distribution by having client devices each infer the posterior of their local data. While exact inference is often intractable, this perspective provides a principled way to search for global optima in federated settings. Further, starting with the analysis of federated quadratic objectives, we develop a computation- and communication-efficient approximate posterior inference algorithm -- federated posterior averaging (FedPA). Our algorithm uses MCMC for approximate inference of local posteriors on the clients and efficiently communicates their statistics to the server, where the latter uses them to refine a global estimate of the posterior mode. Finally, we show that FedPA generalizes federated averaging (FedAvg), can similarly benefit from adaptive optimizers, and yields state-of-the-art results on four realistic and challenging benchmarks, converging faster, to better optima.

Wireless networks used for Internet of Things (IoT) are expected to largely involve cloud-based computing and processing. Softwarised and centralised signal processing and network switching in the cloud enables flexible network control and management. In a cloud environment, dynamic computational resource allocation is essential to save energy while maintaining the performance of the processes. The stochastic features of the Central Processing Unit (CPU) load variation as well as the possible complex parallelisation situations of the cloud processes makes the dynamic resource allocation an interesting research challenge. This paper models this dynamic computational resource allocation problem into a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and designs a model-based reinforcement-learning agent to optimise the dynamic resource allocation of the CPU usage. Value iteration method is used for the reinforcement-learning agent to pick up the optimal policy during the MDP. To evaluate our performance we analyse two types of processes that can be used in the cloud-based IoT networks with different levels of parallelisation capabilities, i.e., Software-Defined Radio (SDR) and Software-Defined Networking (SDN). The results show that our agent rapidly converges to the optimal policy, stably performs in different parameter settings, outperforms or at least equally performs compared to a baseline algorithm in energy savings for different scenarios.

We present a deep imitation learning framework for robotic bimanual manipulation in a continuous state-action space. Imitation learning has been effectively utilized in mimicking bimanual manipulation movements, but generalizing the movement to objects in different locations has not been explored. We hypothesize that to precisely generalize the learned behavior relative to an object's location requires modeling relational information in the environment. To achieve this, we designed a method that (i) uses a multi-model framework to decomposes complex dynamics into elemental movement primitives, and (ii) parameterizes each primitive using a recurrent graph neural network to capture interactions. Our model is a deep, hierarchical, modular architecture with a high-level planner that learns to compose primitives sequentially and a low-level controller which integrates primitive dynamics modules and inverse kinematics control. We demonstrate the effectiveness using several simulated bimanual robotic manipulation tasks. Compared to models based on previous imitation learning studies, our model generalizes better and achieves higher success rates in the simulated tasks.

Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures or models underlying the observed data. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods focus on causal relations between observed variables, while in many scenarios the observed ones may not be the underlying causal variables (e.g., image pixels), but are generated by latent causal variables or confounders that are causally related. To this end, in this paper, we consider Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent variable Models (LiNGLaMs), in which latent confounders are also causally related, and propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition to estimate such latent variable graphs. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $\omega$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. From the graphical view, roughly speaking, GIN implies that causally earlier latent common causes of variables in $\mathbf{Y}$ d-separate $\mathbf{Y}$ from $\mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition, i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent from the error of regressing the effect on the causes, can be seen as a special case of GIN. Moreover, we show that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure, including causal directions. We further develop a recursive learning algorithm to achieve these goals. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision tasks of interest, which we represent via functionals. Although classical decision analysis extracts predictions from a Bayesian model, these predictions are often difficult to interpret and slow to compute. Instead, we design a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis that produce optimal, scalable, and simple targeted predictions. For a wide variety of action parametrizations and loss functions--including linear actions with sparsity constraints for targeted variable selection--we derive a convenient representation of the optimal targeted prediction that yields efficient and interpretable solutions. Customized out-of-sample predictive metrics are developed to evaluate and compare among targeted predictors. Through careful use of the posterior predictive distribution, we introduce a procedure that identifies a set of near-optimal, or acceptable targeted predictors, which provide unique insights into the features and level of complexity needed for accurate targeted prediction. Simulations demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and variable selection capabilities. Targeted predictions are constructed for physical activity data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to better predict and understand the characteristics of intraday physical activity.

One of the main approaches for causal structure learning is constraint-based methods. These methods are particularly valued as they are guaranteed to asymptotically find a structure which is statistically equivalent to the ground truth. However, they may require exponentially large number of conditional independence (CI) tests in the number of variables of the system. In this paper, we propose a novel recursive constraint-based method for causal structure learning. The key idea of the proposed approach is to recursively use Markov blanket information in order to identify a variable that can be removed from the set of variables without changing the statistical relations among the remaining variables. Once such a variable is found, its neighbors are identified, the removable variable is removed, and the Markov blanket information of the remaining variables is updated. Our proposed approach reduces the required number of conditional independence tests for structure learning compared to the state of the art. We also provide a lower bound on the number of CI tests required by any constraint-based method. Comparing this lower bound to our achievable bound demonstrates the efficiency of our approach. We evaluate and compare the performance of the proposed method on both synthetic and real world structures against the state of the art.

Animals are equipped with a rich innate repertoire of sensory, behavioral and motor skills, which allows them to interact with the world immediately after birth. At the same time, many behaviors are highly adaptive and can be tailored to specific environments by means of learning. In this work, we use mathematical analysis and the framework of meta-learning (or'learning to learn') to answer when it is beneficial to learn such an adaptive strategy and when to hard-code a heuristic behavior. We find that the interplay of ecological uncertainty, task complexity and the agents' lifetime has crucial effects on the meta-learned amortized Bayesian inference performed by an agent. There exist two regimes: One in which metalearning yields a learning algorithm that implements task-dependent informationintegration and a second regime in which meta-learning imprints a heuristic or'hard-coded' behavior. Further analysis reveals that nonadaptive behaviors are not only optimal for aspects of the environment that are stable across individuals, but also in situations where an adaptation to the environment would in fact be highly beneficial, but could not be done quickly enough to be exploited within the remaining lifetime. Hard-coded behaviors should hence not only be those that always work, but also those that are too complex to be learned within a reasonable time frame. The'nature versus nurture' debate (e.g., Mutti et al., 1996; Tabery, 2014) - the question which aspects of behavior are'hard-coded' by evolution, and which are learned from experience - is one of the oldest and most controversial debates in biology.

Product risk assessment is the overall process of determining whether a product, which could be anything from a type of washing machine to a type of teddy bear, is judged safe for consumers to use. There are several methods used for product risk assessment, including RAPEX, which is the primary method used by regulators in the UK and EU. However, despite its widespread use, we identify several limitations of RAPEX including a limited approach to handling uncertainty and the inability to incorporate causal explanations for using and interpreting test data. In contrast, Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a rigorous, normative method for modelling uncertainty and causality which are already used for risk assessment in domains such as medicine and finance, as well as critical systems generally. This article proposes a BN model that provides an improved systematic method for product risk assessment that resolves the identified limitations with RAPEX. We use our proposed method to demonstrate risk assessments for a teddy bear and a new uncertified kettle for which there is no testing data and the number of product instances is unknown. We show that, while we can replicate the results of the RAPEX method, the BN approach is more powerful and flexible.

This leads to the desire of an accurate space encoding that enables performance prediction In this paper, we propose an approach to neural architecture via surrogates and black-box optimization to find search (NAS) based on graph embeddings. NAS has high-performing architectures in a continuous search space been addressed previously using discrete, sampling based [67]. Zhang et al. [67] propose D-VAE, a graph neural network methods, which are computationally expensive as well as (GNN) [14, 23, 56] based variational neural architecture differentiable approaches, which come at lower costs but embedding with emphasis on the information flow and enforce stronger constraints on the search space. The proposed thereby achieve good results in architecture performance approach leverages advantages from both sides by prediction and BO on the ENAS search space [39] and on a building a smooth variational neural architecture embedding dataset of Bayesian Networks.

Pre-trained Transformer-based neural architectures have consistently achieved state-of-the-art performance in the Natural Language Inference (NLI) task. Since NLI examples encompass a variety of linguistic, logical, and reasoning phenomena, it remains unclear as to which specific concepts are learnt by the trained systems and where they can achieve strong generalization. To investigate this question, we propose a taxonomic hierarchy of categories that are relevant for the NLI task. We introduce TAXINLI, a new dataset, that has 10k examples from the MNLI dataset (Williams et al., 2018) with these taxonomic labels. Through various experiments on TAXINLI, we observe that whereas for certain taxonomic categories SOTA neural models have achieved near perfect accuracies - a large jump over the previous models - some categories still remain difficult. Our work adds to the growing body of literature that shows the gaps in the current NLI systems and datasets through a systematic presentation and analysis of reasoning categories.