Graph neural network models have been extensively used to learn node representations for graph structured data in an end-to-end setting. These models often rely on localized first order approximations of spectral graph convolutions and hence are unable to capture higher-order relational information between nodes. Probabilistic Graphical Models form another class of models that provide rich flexibility in incorporating such relational information but are limited by inefficient approximate inference algorithms at higher order. In this paper, we propose to combine these approaches to learn better node and graph representations. First, we derive an efficient approximate sum-product loopy belief propagation inference algorithm for higher-order PGMs. We then embed the message passing updates into a neural network to provide the inductive bias of the inference algorithm in end-to-end learning. This gives us a model that is flexible enough to accommodate domain knowledge while maintaining the computational advantage. We further propose methods for constructing higher-order factors that are conditioned on node and edge features and share parameters wherever necessary. Our experimental evaluation shows that our model indeed captures higher-order information, substantially outperforming state-of-the-art $k$-order graph neural networks in molecular datasets.

We present an information-based uncertainty quantification method for general Markov Random Fields. Markov Random Fields (MRFs) are structured, probabilistic graphical models over undirected graphs, and provide a fundamental unifying modeling tool for statistical mechanics, probabilistic machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Typically MRFs are complex and high-dimensional with nodes and edges (connections) built in a modular fashion from simpler, low-dimensional probabilistic models and their local connections; in turn, this modularity allows to incorporate available data to MRFs and efficiently simulate them by leveraging their graph-theoretic structure. Learning graphical models from data and/or constructing them from physical modeling and constraints necessarily involves uncertainties inherited from data, modeling choices, or numerical approximations. These uncertainties in the MRF can be manifested either in the graph structure or the probability distribution functions, and necessarily will propagate in predictions for quantities of interest. Here we quantify such uncertainties using tight, information-based bounds on the predictions of quantities of interest; these bounds take advantage of the graphical structure of MRFs and are capable of handling the inherent high-dimensionality of such graphical models. We demonstrate our methods in MRFs for medical diagnostics and statistical mechanics models. In the latter, we develop uncertainty quantification bounds for finite-size effects and phase diagrams, which constitute two of the typical predictions goals of statistical mechanics modeling.

This paper proposes an encoder-decoder architecture grounded on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), that generates a sequence of activities and their timestamps in an end-to-end way. GANs work well with differentiable data such as images. However, a suffix is a sequence of categorical items. To this end, we use the Gumbel-Softmax distribution to get a differentiable continuous approximation. The training works by putting one neural network against the other in a two-player game (hence the "adversarial" nature), which leads to generating suffixes close to the ground truth. From the experimental evaluation it emerges that the approach is superior to the baselines in terms of the accuracy of the predicted suffixes and corresponding remaining times, despite using a naive feature encoding and only engineering features based on control flow and events completion time.

Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) is a recently introduced framework that uses Gaussian process surrogates to perform approximate Bayesian inference in models with black-box, non-cheap likelihoods. In this work, we extend VBMC to deal with noisy log-likelihood evaluations, such as those arising from simulation-based models. We introduce new `global' acquisition functions, such as expected information gain (EIG) and variational interquantile range (VIQR), which are robust to noise and can be efficiently evaluated within the VBMC setting. In a novel, challenging, noisy-inference benchmark comprising of a variety of models with real datasets from computational and cognitive neuroscience, VBMC+VIQR achieves state-of-the-art performance in recovering the ground-truth posteriors and model evidence. In particular, our method vastly outperforms `local' acquisition functions and other surrogate-based inference methods while keeping a small algorithmic cost. Our benchmark corroborates VBMC as a general-purpose technique for sample-efficient black-box Bayesian inference also with noisy models.

In this paper we present a Bayesian reinforcement learning framework that allows robotic manipulators to adaptively recover from random mechanical failures autonomously, hence being survivable. To this end, we formulate the framework of Bayesian Policy Morphing (BPM) that enables a robot agent to self-modify its learned policy after the diminution of its maneuvering dimensionality. We build upon existing actor-critic framework, and extend it to perform policy gradient updates as posterior learning, taking past policy updates as prior distributions. We show that policy search, in the direction biased by prior experience, significantly improves learning efficiency in terms of sampling requirements. We demonstrate our results on an 8-DOF robotic arm with our algorithm of BPM, while intentionally disabling random joints with different damage types like unresponsive joints, constant offset errors and angular imprecision. Our results have shown that, even with physical damages, the robotic arm can still successfully maintain its functionality to accurately locate and grasp a given target object.

This paper proposes a lexicographic Deep Reinforcement Learning (DeepRL)-based approach to chance-constrained Markov Decision Processes, in which the controller seeks to ensure that the probability of satisfying the constraint is above a given threshold. Standard DeepRL approaches require i) the constraints to be included as additional weighted terms in the cost function, in a multi-objective fashion, and ii) the tuning of the introduced weights during the training phase of the Deep Neural Network (DNN) according to the probability thresholds. The proposed approach, instead, requires to separately train one constraint-free DNN and one DNN associated to each constraint and then, at each time-step, to select which DNN to use depending on the system observed state. The presented solution does not require any hyper-parameter tuning besides the standard DNN ones, even if the probability thresholds changes. A lexicographic version of the well-known DeepRL algorithm DQN is also proposed and validated via simulations.

Choosing a publication venue for an academic paper is a crucial step in the research process. However, in many cases, decisions are based on the experience of researchers, which often leads to suboptimal results. Although some existing methods recommend publication venues, they just recommend venues where a paper is likely to be published. In this study, we aim to recommend publication venues from a different perspective. We estimate the number of citations a paper will receive if the paper is published in each venue and recommend the venue where the paper has the most potential impact. However, there are two challenges to this task. First, a paper is published in only one venue, and thus, we cannot observe the number of citations the paper would receive if the paper were published in another venue. Secondly, the contents of a paper and the publication venue are not statistically independent; that is, there exist selection biases in choosing publication venues. In this paper, we propose to use a causal inference method to estimate the treatment effects of choosing a publication venue effectively and to recommend venues based on the potential influence of papers.

This paper re-examines a continuous optimization framework dubbed NOTEARS for learning Bayesian networks. We first generalize existing algebraic characterizations of acyclicity to a class of matrix polynomials. Next, focusing on a one-parameter-per-edge setting, it is shown that the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions for the NOTEARS formulation cannot be satisfied except in a trivial case, which explains a behavior of the associated algorithm. We then derive the KKT conditions for an equivalent reformulation, show that they are indeed necessary, and relate them to explicit constraints that certain edges be absent from the graph. If the score function is convex, these KKT conditions are also sufficient for local minimality despite the non-convexity of the constraint. Informed by the KKT conditions, a local search post-processing algorithm is proposed and shown to substantially and universally improve the structural Hamming distance of all tested algorithms, typically by a factor of 2 or more. Some combinations with local search are both more accurate and more efficient than the original NOTEARS.

The present work addresses theoretical and practical questions in the domain of Deep Learning for High Frequency Trading. State-of-the-art models such as Random models, Logistic Regressions, LSTMs, LSTMs equipped with an Attention mask, CNN-LSTMs and MLPs are reviewed and compared on the same tasks, feature space and dataset, and then clustered according to pairwise similarity and performance metrics. The underlying dimensions of the modeling techniques are hence investigated to understand whether these are intrinsic to the Limit Order Book's dynamics. We observe that the Multilayer Perceptron performs comparably to or better than state-of-the-art CNN-LSTM architectures indicating that dynamic spatial and temporal dimensions are a good approximation of the LOB's dynamics, but not necessarily the true underlying dimensions.

We study learning dynamics induced by strategic agents who repeatedly play a game with an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In each step, an information system estimates a belief distribution of the parameter based on the players' strategies and realized payoffs using Bayes's rule. Players adjust their strategies by accounting for an equilibrium strategy or a best response strategy based on the updated belief. We prove that beliefs and strategies converge to a fixed point with probability 1. We also provide conditions that guarantee local and global stability of fixed points. Any fixed point belief consistently estimates the payoff distribution given the fixed point strategy profile. However, convergence to a complete information Nash equilibrium is not always guaranteed. We provide a sufficient and necessary condition under which fixed point belief recovers the unknown parameter. We also provide a sufficient condition for convergence to complete information equilibrium even when parameter learning is incomplete.