Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic process that best describes the data. While this "data-driven" way of learning stochastic processes has proven to handle various types of data, NPs still rely on an assumption that uncertainty in stochastic processes is modeled by a single latent variable, which potentially limits the flexibility. To this end, we propose the Boostrapping Neural Process (BNP), a novel extension of the NP family using the bootstrap. The bootstrap is a classical data-driven technique for estimating uncertainty, which allows BNP to learn the stochasticity in NPs without assuming a particular form. We demonstrate the efficacy of BNP on various types of data and its robustness in the presence of model-data mismatch.

Learning complex behaviors through interaction requires coordinated long-term planning. Random exploration and novelty search lack task-centric guidance and waste effort on non-informative interactions. Instead, decision making should target samples with the potential to optimize performance far into the future, while only reducing uncertainty where conducive to this objective. This paper presents latent optimistic value exploration (LOVE), a strategy that enables deep exploration through optimism in the face of uncertain long-term rewards. We combine finite horizon rollouts from a latent model with value function estimates to predict infinite horizon returns and recover associated uncertainty through ensembling. Policy training then proceeds on an upper confidence bound (UCB) objective to identify and select the interactions most promising to improve long-term performance. We apply LOVE to visual control tasks in continuous state-action spaces and demonstrate improved sample complexity on a selection of benchmarking tasks.

As we deploy reinforcement learning agents to solve increasingly challenging problems, methods that allow us to inject prior knowledge about the structure of the world and effective solution strategies becomes increasingly important. In this work we consider how information and architectural constraints can be combined with ideas from the probabilistic modeling literature to learn behavior priors that capture the common movement and interaction patterns that are shared across a set of related tasks or contexts. For example the day-to day behavior of humans comprises distinctive locomotion and manipulation patterns that recur across many different situations and goals. We discuss how such behavior patterns can be captured using probabilistic trajectory models and how these can be integrated effectively into reinforcement learning schemes, e.g.\ to facilitate multi-task and transfer learning. We then extend these ideas to latent variable models and consider a formulation to learn hierarchical priors that capture different aspects of the behavior in reusable modules. We discuss how such latent variable formulations connect to related work on hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) and mutual information and curiosity based objectives, thereby offering an alternative perspective on existing ideas. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by applying it to a range of simulated continuous control domains.

Advances in computer science are helping to accelerate a broad spectrum of scientific research. The more complex the problem, the greater the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning to help identify patterns and make predictions. How widely is machine learning being used in treating diseases and disorders of the brain? A new study published earlier this month in the science journal APL Bioengineering examines the state-of-the-art uses of AI for brain disease, and shows there has been exponential growth in over a decade. The biological brain has been the inspiration for artificial neural networks, a type of artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning model.

This article reviews meta-learning also known as learning-to-learn which seeks rapid and accurate model adaptation to unseen tasks with applications in highly automated AI, few-shot learning, natural language processing and robotics. Unlike deep learning, meta-learning can be applied to few-shot high-dimensional datasets and considers further improving model generalization to unseen tasks. Deep learning is focused upon in-sample prediction and meta-learning concerns model adaptation for out-of-sample prediction. Meta-learning can continually perform self-improvement to achieve highly autonomous AI. Meta-learning may serve as an additional generalization block complementary for original deep learning model. Meta-learning seeks adaptation of machine learning models to unseen tasks which are vastly different from trained tasks. Meta-learning with coevolution between agent and environment provides solutions for complex tasks unsolvable by training from scratch. Meta-learning methodology covers a wide range of great minds and thoughts. We briefly introduce meta-learning methodologies in the following categories: black-box meta-learning, metric-based meta-learning, layered meta-learning and Bayesian meta-learning framework. Recent applications concentrate upon the integration of meta-learning with other machine learning framework to provide feasible integrated problem solutions. We briefly present recent meta-learning advances and discuss potential future research directions.

We present a novel approach to Bayesian inference and general Bayesian computation that is defined through a recursive partitioning of the sample space. It does not rely on gradients, nor require any problem-specific tuning, and is asymptotically exact for any density function with a bounded domain. The output is an approximation to the whole density function including the normalization constant, via partitions organized in efficient data structures. This allows for evidence estimation, as well as approximate posteriors that allow for fast sampling and fast evaluations of the density. It shows competitive performance to recent state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world problem examples including parameter inference for gravitational-wave physics.

Many important real-world settings contain multiple players interacting over an unknown duration with probabilistic state transitions, and are naturally modeled as stochastic games. Prior research on algorithms for stochastic games has focused on two-player zero-sum games, games with perfect information, and games with imperfect-information that is local and does not extend between game states. We present an algorithm for approximating Nash equilibrium in multiplayer general-sum stochastic games with persistent imperfect information that extends throughout game play. We experiment on a 4-player imperfect-information naval strategic planning scenario. Using a new procedure, we are able to demonstrate that our algorithm computes a strategy that closely approximates Nash equilibrium in this game.

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP) approximation of the integrand. As a result, BQ is inherently limited to cases where GP approximations can be done in an efficient manner, thus often prohibiting very high-dimensional or non-smooth target functions. This paper proposes to tackle this issue with a new Bayesian numerical integration algorithm based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors, which we call BART-Int. BART priors are easy to tune and well-suited for discontinuous functions. We demonstrate that they also lend themselves naturally to a sequential design setting and that explicit convergence rates can be obtained in a variety of settings. The advantages and disadvantages of this new methodology are highlighted on a set of benchmark tests including the Genz functions, and on a Bayesian survey design problem.

Credit scoring is a rapidly expanding analytical technique used by banks and other financial institutions. Academic studies on credit scoring provide a range of classification techniques used to differentiate between good and bad borrowers. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new method for credit scoring based on Gaussian Mixture Models. Our algorithm classifies consumers into groups which are labeled as positive or negative. Labels are estimated according to the probability associated with each class. We apply our model with real world databases from Australia, Japan, and Germany. Numerical results show that not only our model's performance is comparable to others, but also its flexibility avoids over-fitting even in the absence of standard cross validation techniques. The framework developed by this paper can provide a computationally efficient and powerful tool for assessment of consumer default risk in related financial institutions.

Estimating epistemic uncertainty of models used in low-latency applications and Out-Of-Distribution samples detection is a challenge due to the computationally demanding nature of uncertainty estimation techniques. Estimating model uncertainty using approximation techniques like Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), DropConnect (MCDC) requires a large number of forward passes through the network, rendering them inapt for low-latency applications. We propose Select-DC which uses a subset of layers in a neural network to model epistemic uncertainty with MCDC. Through our experiments, we show a significant reduction in the GFLOPS required to model uncertainty, compared to Monte Carlo DropConnect, with marginal trade-off in performance. We perform a suite of experiments on CIFAR 10, CIFAR 100, and SVHN datasets with ResNet and VGG models. We further show how applying DropConnect to various layers in the network with different drop probabilities affects the networks performance and the entropy of the predictive distribution.