This paper proposes a dual-supervised uncertainty inference (DS-UI) framework for improving Bayesian estimation-based uncertainty inference (UI) in deep neural network (DNN)-based image recognition. In the DS-UI, we combine the classifier of a DNN, i.e., the last fully-connected (FC) layer, with a mixture of Gaussian mixture models (MoGMM) to obtain an MoGMM-FC layer. Unlike existing UI methods for DNNs, which only calculate the means or modes of the DNN outputs' distributions, the proposed MoGMM-FC layer acts as a probabilistic interpreter for the features that are inputs of the classifier to directly calculate the probability density of them for the DS-UI. In addition, we propose a dual-supervised stochastic gradient-based variational Bayes (DS-SGVB) algorithm for the MoGMM-FC layer optimization. Unlike conventional SGVB and optimization algorithms in other UI methods, the DS-SGVB not only models the samples in the specific class for each Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the MoGMM, but also considers the negative samples from other classes for the GMM to reduce the intra-class distances and enlarge the inter-class margins simultaneously for enhancing the learning ability of the MoGMM-FC layer in the DS-UI. Experimental results show the DS-UI outperforms the state-of-the-art UI methods in misclassification detection. We further evaluate the DS-UI in open-set out-of-domain/-distribution detection and find statistically significant improvements. Visualizations of the feature spaces demonstrate the superiority of the DS-UI.

Semi-continuous data comes from a distribution that is a mixture of the point mass at zero and a continuous distribution with support on the positive real line. A clear example is the daily rainfall data. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm to estimate the density function for semi-continuous data using the principle of maximum entropy. Unlike existing methods in the literature, our algorithm needs only the sample values of the constraint functions in the entropy maximization problem and does not need the entire sample. Using simulations, we show that the estimate of the entropy produced by our algorithm has significantly less bias compared to existing methods. An application to the daily rainfall data is provided.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Predictions obtained by, e.g., artificial neural networks have a high accuracy but humans often perceive the models as black boxes. Insights about the decision making are mostly opaque for humans. Particularly understanding the decision making in highly sensitive areas such as healthcare or fifinance, is of paramount importance. The decision-making behind the black boxes requires it to be more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. This survey paper provides essential definitions, an overview of the different principles and methodologies of explainable Supervised Machine Learning (SML). We conduct a state-of-the-art survey that reviews past and recent explainable SML approaches and classifies them according to the introduced definitions. Finally, we illustrate principles by means of an explanatory case study and discuss important future directions.

Contemporary machine learning applications often involve classification tasks with many classes. Despite their extensive use, a precise understanding of the statistical properties and behavior of classification algorithms is still missing, especially in modern regimes where the number of classes is rather large. In this paper, we take a step in this direction by providing the first asymptotically precise analysis of linear multiclass classification. Our theoretical analysis allows us to precisely characterize how the test error varies over different training algorithms, data distributions, problem dimensions as well as number of classes, inter/intra class correlations and class priors. Specifically, our analysis reveals that the classification accuracy is highly distribution-dependent with different algorithms achieving optimal performance for different data distributions and/or training/features sizes. Unlike linear regression/binary classification, the test error in multiclass classification relies on intricate functions of the trained model (e.g., correlation between some of the trained weights) whose asymptotic behavior is difficult to characterize. This challenge is already present in simple classifiers, such as those minimizing a square loss. Our novel theoretical techniques allow us to overcome some of these challenges. The insights gained may pave the way for a precise understanding of other classification algorithms beyond those studied in this paper.

In this paper, we propose a rule-based engine composed of high quality and interpretable regular expressions for medical text classification. The regular expressions are auto generated by a constructive heuristic method and optimized using a Pool-based Simulated Annealing (PSA) approach. Although existing Deep Neural Network (DNN) methods present high quality performance in most Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications, the solutions are regarded as uninterpretable black boxes to humans. Therefore, rule-based methods are often introduced when interpretable solutions are needed, especially in the medical field. However, the construction of regular expressions can be extremely labor-intensive for large data sets. This research aims to reduce the manual efforts while maintaining high-quality solutions

Goal-oriented dialog systems enable users to complete specific goals like requesting information about a movie or booking a ticket. Typically the dialog system pipeline contains multiple ML models, including natural language understanding, state tracking and action prediction (policy learning). These models are trained through a combination of supervised or reinforcement learning methods and therefore require collection of labeled domain specific datasets. However, collecting annotated datasets with language and dialog-flow variations is expensive, time-consuming and scales poorly due to human involvement. In this paper, we propose an approach for automatically creating a large corpus of annotated dialogs from a few thoroughly annotated sample dialogs and the dialog schema. Our approach includes a novel goal-sampling technique for sampling plausible user goals and a dialog simulation technique that uses heuristic interplay between the user and the system (Alexa), where the user tries to achieve the sampled goal. We validate our approach by generating data and training three different downstream conversational ML models. We achieve 18 ? 50% relative accuracy improvements on a held-out test set compared to a baseline dialog generation approach that only samples natural language and entity value variations from existing catalogs but does not generate any novel dialog flow variations. We also qualitatively establish that the proposed approach is better than the baseline. Moreover, several different conversational experiences have been built using this method, which enables customers to have a wide variety of conversations with Alexa.

Network topology identification (TI) is an essential function for distributed energy resources management systems (DERMS) to organize and operate widespread distributed energy resources (DERs). In this paper, discriminant analysis (DA) is deployed to develop a network TI function that relies only on the measurements available to DERMS. The propounded method is able to identify the network switching configuration, as well as the status of protective devices. Following, to improve the TI resiliency against the interruption of communication channels, a quadratic programming optimization approach is proposed to recover the missing signals. By deploying the propounded data recovery approach and Bayes' theorem together, a benchmark is developed afterward to identify anomalous measurements. This benchmark can make the TI function resilient against cyber-attacks. Having a low computational burden, this approach is fast-track and can be applied in real-time applications. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the contribution of different measurements and the impact of the system load type and loading level on the performance of the proposed approach.

Deep neural networks have proven extremely efficient at solving a wide range of inverse problems, but most often the uncertainty on the solution they provide is hard to quantify. In this work, we propose a generic Bayesian framework for solving inverse problems, in which we limit the use of deep neural networks to learning a prior distribution on the signals to recover. We adopt recent denoising score matching techniques to learn this prior from data, and subsequently use it as part of an annealed Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo scheme to sample the full posterior of image inverse problems. We apply this framework to Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) reconstruction and illustrate how this approach not only yields high quality reconstructions but can also be used to assess the uncertainty on particular features of a reconstructed image.

Data Pre-processing - Data Preprocessing is that step in which the data gets transformed, or Encoded, to bring it to such a state that now the machine can easily parse it.