This paper considers parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models, which is an important but challenging problem. We address this challenge by employing a variational inference (VI) approach, which is a principled method that has deep connections to maximum likelihood estimation. This VI approach ultimately provides estimates of the model as solutions to an optimisation problem, which is deterministic, tractable and can be solved using standard optimisation tools. A specialisation of this approach for systems with additive Gaussian noise is also detailed. The proposed method is examined numerically on a range of simulation and real examples with a focus on robustness to parameter initialisations; we additionally perform favourable comparisons against state-of-the-art alternatives.

Machine learning models are commonly trained end-to-end and in a supervised setting, using paired (input, output) data. Classical examples include recent super-resolution methods that train on pairs of (low-resolution, high-resolution) images. However, these end-to-end approaches require re-training every time there is a distribution shift in the inputs (e.g., night images vs daylight) or relevant latent variables (e.g., camera blur or hand motion). In this work, we leverage state-of-the-art (SOTA) generative models (here StyleGAN2) for building powerful image priors, which enable application of Bayes' theorem for many downstream reconstruction tasks. Our method, called Bayesian Reconstruction through Generative Models (BRGM), uses a single pre-trained generator model to solve different image restoration tasks, i.e., super-resolution and in-painting, by combining it with different forward corruption models. We demonstrate BRGM on three large, yet diverse, datasets that enable us to build powerful priors: (i) 60,000 images from the Flick Faces High Quality dataset \cite{karras2019style} (ii) 240,000 chest X-rays from MIMIC III and (iii) a combined collection of 5 brain MRI datasets with 7,329 scans. Across all three datasets and without any dataset-specific hyperparameter tuning, our approach yields state-of-the-art performance on super-resolution, particularly at low-resolution levels, as well as inpainting, compared to state-of-the-art methods that are specific to each reconstruction task. We will make our code and pre-trained models available online.

The ML-model leverages supervised learning and tokenization to clear the spam messages from the mail. The amount of mails sent and received has significantly increased over the past few years. A report states that more than 300 billion emails were sent and received each day in 2020, and this figure is expected to increase by over 361 billion emails daily in 2024. Spam mails contribute majorly to this exponential increase in mails. And while cleaning the spam messages from the Gmail account might seem tricky, the machine learning model holds more accountability than the traditional method to perform the task.

First and foremost, it is a delicious fruit. But there is a double delight for fruit-lover data scientists! It is also a Python package that implements fast and flexible probabilistic models ranging from individual probability distributions to compositional models such as Bayesian networks and Hidden Markov Models. The central idea behind this package is that all probabilistic models can be viewed as a probability distribution. That means they all yield probability estimates for samples and can be updated/fitted given samples and their associated weights.

We present a model for Bayesian filtering (BF) in discrete dynamic systems where multiple entities (inter)-act, i.e. where the system dynamics is naturally described by a Multiset rewriting system (MRS). Typically, BF in such situations is computationally expensive due to the high number of discrete states that need to be maintained explicitly. We devise a lifted state representation, based on a suitable decomposition of multiset states, such that some factors of the distribution are exchangeable and thus afford an efficient representation. Intuitively, this representation groups together similar entities whose properties follow an exchangeable joint distribution. Subsequently, we introduce a BF algorithm that works directly on lifted states, without resorting to the original, much larger ground representation. This algorithm directly lends itself to approximate versions by limiting the number of explicitly represented lifted states in the posterior. We show empirically that the lifted representation can lead to a factorial reduction in the representational complexity of the distribution, and in the approximate cases can lead to a lower variance of the estimate and a lower estimation error compared to the original, ground representation.

Thompson sampling (TS) has emerged as a robust technique for contextual bandit problems. However, TS requires posterior inference and optimization for action generation, prohibiting its use in many internet applications where latency and ease of deployment are of concern. We propose a novel imitation-learning-based algorithm that distills a TS policy into an explicit policy representation by performing posterior inference and optimization offline. The explicit policy representation enables fast online decision-making and easy deployment in mobile and server-based environments. Our algorithm iteratively performs offline batch updates to the TS policy and learns a new imitation policy. Since we update the TS policy with observations collected under the imitation policy, our algorithm emulates an off-policy version of TS. Our imitation algorithm guarantees Bayes regret comparable to TS, up to the sum of single-step imitation errors. We show these imitation errors can be made arbitrarily small when unlabeled contexts are cheaply available, which is the case for most large-scale internet applications. Empirically, we show that our imitation policy achieves comparable regret to TS, while reducing decision-time latency by over an order of magnitude.

Structure Learning for Bayesian network (BN) is an important problem with extensive research. It plays central roles in a wide variety of applications in Alibaba Group. However, existing structure learning algorithms suffer from considerable limitations in real world applications due to their low efficiency and poor scalability. To resolve this, we propose a new structure learning algorithm LEAST, which comprehensively fulfills our business requirements as it attains high accuracy, efficiency and scalability at the same time. The core idea of LEAST is to formulate the structure learning into a continuous constrained optimization problem, with a novel differentiable constraint function measuring the acyclicity of the resulting graph. Unlike with existing work, our constraint function is built on the spectral radius of the graph and could be evaluated in near linear time w.r.t. the graph node size. Based on it, LEAST can be efficiently implemented with low storage overhead. According to our benchmark evaluation, LEAST runs 1 to 2 orders of magnitude faster than state of the art method with comparable accuracy, and it is able to scale on BNs with up to hundreds of thousands of variables. In our production environment, LEAST is deployed and serves for more than 20 applications with thousands of executions per day. We describe a concrete scenario in a ticket booking service in Alibaba, where LEAST is applied to build a near real-time automatic anomaly detection and root error cause analysis system. We also show that LEAST unlocks the possibility of applying BN structure learning in new areas, such as large-scale gene expression data analysis and explainable recommendation system.

We show that standard machine-learning algorithms may be trained to predict certain invariants of low genus arithmetic curves. Using datasets of size around one hundred thousand, we demonstrate the utility of machine-learning in classification problems pertaining to the BSD invariants of an elliptic curve (including its rank and torsion subgroup), and the analogous invariants of a genus 2 curve. Our results show that a trained machine can efficiently classify curves according to these invariants with high accuracies (>0.97). For problems such as distinguishing between torsion orders, and the recognition of integral points, the accuracies can reach 0.998.

Many practical machine learning tasks can be framed as Structured prediction problems, where several output variables are predicted and considered interdependent. Recent theoretical advances in structured prediction have focused on obtaining fast rates convergence guarantees, especially in the Implicit Loss Embedding (ILE) framework. PAC-Bayes has gained interest recently for its capacity of producing tight risk bounds for predictor distributions. This work proposes a novel PAC-Bayes perspective on the ILE Structured prediction framework. We present two generalization bounds, on the risk and excess risk, which yield insights into the behavior of ILE predictors. Two learning algorithms are derived from these bounds.

A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own intelligence and build intelligent machines. Just like in physics, the principles themselves would not be sufficient to predict the behavior of complex systems like brains, and substantial computation might be needed to simulate human-like intelligence. This hypothesis would suggest that studying the kind of inductive biases that humans and animals exploit could help both clarify these principles and provide inspiration for AI research and neuroscience theories. Deep learning already exploits several key inductive biases, and this work considers a larger list, focusing on those which concern mostly higher-level and sequential conscious processing. The objective of clarifying these particular principles is that they could potentially help us build AI systems benefiting from humans' abilities in terms of flexible out-of-distribution and systematic generalization, which is currently an area where a large gap exists between state-of-the-art machine learning and human intelligence.