This paper builds a hierarchy of explicit, non-asymptotic tail bounds for the supremum of the Kostlan--Shub--Smale (KSS) random field on the sphere, and applies it to two problems: Spiked Tensor PCA and the landscape of the spherical $k$-spin model. For Tensor PCA, we study the non-asymptotic statistical limits of estimating a rank-$R$ symmetric signal tensor of order~$k\ge 3$ and dimension~$d\ge 3$ from a single Gaussian observation at signal-to-noise ratio~$λ$, through the \emph{profile maximum likelihood estimator}, the MLE restricted to normalized rank-$R$ tensors of coherence at least~$κ$. Our analysis uses a single reduction: a deterministic geometric inequality (the Tube Method) and a rank-reduction step bound the estimation error by the supremum of the canonical KSS field, which the Kac--Rice formula turns into a Gaussian integral against the expected absolute characteristic polynomial of a shifted Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, controlled in turn by the four explicit tail bounds of our hierarchy (three from a Mehta--Fyodorov representation, one from a Ben Arous--Dembo--Guionnet large deviation). The same reduction yields two results, each with explicit constants. For estimation, a finite-$(k,d)$ error bound recovers the asymptotically optimal rate~$\sqrt{d\log k}$ of Perry, Wein and Bandeira, with explicit dependence on the rank~$R$ and the coherence~$κ$. For the landscape, a two-sided non-asymptotic bracketing of the annealed complexity of the spherical $k$-spin Hamiltonian recovers the Auffinger--Ben Arous--Černý complexity function in the high-dimensional limit.

Agentic artificial intelligence systems introduce a new class of model risk. Unlike traditional predictive models, autonomous agents continuously acquire information, form beliefs regarding latent states of the environment, generate forecasts, select actions, and adapt their behavior over time. Existing validation methodologies focus primarily on predictive accuracy and therefore provide limited insight into the quality of the underlying decision process. This paper proposes a model validation framework for agentic AI based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility, allowing each component to be validated independently. Large language models (LLMs) are formalized as approximate Bayesian filtering operators, and a model-risk taxonomy is developed encompassing state-space, filtering, forecast, policy, utility-specification, and parameter risks. The model risk validation methodology is demonstrated through a portfolio-management case study in which an agent infers latent market regimes from market and macroeconomic information, generates belief-conditioned forecasts, and constructs portfolios using a Black--Litterman framework. Empirical validation combines performance analysis, belief calibration diagnostics, coverage tests, ablation studies, and parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that latent-state inference contributes independently to decision quality and that the principal conclusions remain robust across a broad range of parameter values. The principal contribution of the paper is a practical framework for extending established model risk management concepts to autonomous AI systems and providing a rigorous foundation for their validation, governance, and monitoring.

The increasing number of satellites and orbital debris has made space congestion a critical issue, threatening satellite safety and sustainability. Challenges such as collision avoidance, station-keeping, and orbital maneuvering require advanced techniques to handle dynamic uncertainties and multi-agent interactions. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in this domain, enabling adaptive, autonomous policies for space operations; however, many existing RL frameworks rely on custom-built environments developed from scratch, which often use simplified models and require significant time to implement and validate the orbital dynamics, limiting their ability to fully capture real-world complexities. To address this, we introduce OrbitZoo, a versatile multi-agent RL environment built on a highfidelity industry standard library, that enables realistic data generation, supports scenarios like collision avoidance and cooperative maneuvers, and ensures robust and accurate orbital dynamics. The environment is validated against various real satellite constellations, including Starlink, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.16% compared to real-world data. This validation ensures reliability for generating high-fidelity simulations and enabling autonomous and independent satellite operations. This project is open source1 and has a dedicated project page2.

We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with unobserved confounding. Recent advances have introduced bridge-function to circumvent unmeasured confounding and develop estimators for the policy value, yet the statistical error bounds of them related to the length of horizon T and the size of the state-action space |O||A| remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we systematically investigate the finite-sample error bounds of OPE estimators in finite-horizon tabular confounded POMDPs. Specifically, we show that under certain rank conditions, the estimation error for policy value can achieve a rate of O(T1.5/ n), excluding the cardinality of the observation space |O| and the action space |A|. With an additional mild condition on the concentrability coefficients in confounded POMDPs, the rate of estimation error can be improved to O(T/ n).

The bisimulation metric (BSM) is a powerful tool for computing state similarities within a Markov decision process (MDP), revealing that states closer in BSM have more similar optimal value functions. While BSM has been successfully utilized in reinforcement learning (RL) for tasks like state representation learning and policy exploration, its application to multiple-MDP scenarios, such as policy transfer, remains challenging. Prior work has attempted to generalize BSM to pairs of MDPs, but a lack of rigorous analysis of its mathematical properties has limited further theoretical progress. In this work, we formally establish a generalized bisimulation metric (GBSM) between pairs of MDPs, which is rigorously proven with the three fundamental properties: GBSM symmetry, inter-MDP triangle inequality, and the distance bound on identical state spaces. Leveraging these properties, we theoretically analyse policy transfer, state aggregation, and sampling-based estimation in MDPs, obtaining explicit bounds that are strictly tighter than those derived from the standard BSM. Additionally, GBSM provides a closed-form sample complexity for estimation, improving upon existing asymptotic results based on BSM. Numerical results validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of GBSM in multi-MDP scenarios.

Imitation learning (IL) is a paradigm for learning sequential decision-making policies from experts, leveraging offline demonstrations, interactive annotations, or both. Recent advances show that when annotation cost is tallied per trajectory, Behavior Cloning (BC)--which relies solely on offline demonstrations--cannot be improved in general, leaving limited conditions for interactive methods such as DAgger to help. We revisit this conclusion and prove that when the annotation cost is measured per state, algorithms using interactive annotations can provably outperform BC. Specifically: (1) we show that STAGGER, a one-sample-per-round variant of DAgger, provably beats BC under low-recovery-cost settings; (2) we initiate the study of hybrid IL where the agent learns from offline demonstrations and interactive annotations. We propose WARM-STAGGER whose learning guarantee is not much worse than using either data source alone.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with "side information" of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, covariate-moderated empirical Bayes matrix factorization (cEBMF).

With the advancing reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), they are increasingly employed for complex evaluation tasks, such as grading student responses, verifying factual claims, and comparing competing answers. Leveraging multiple LLMs as automated judges can enhance robustness and accuracy by aggregating diverse perspectives, yet existing approaches often rely on static and simple aggregation methods, such as majority voting, which may produce incorrect judgments despite correct individual assessments. We propose a novel multiagent debate framework where LLMs collaboratively reason and iteratively refine judgments, formalizing this process mathematically and proving its advantages over static ensembles. To ensure computational efficiency, we introduce a stability detection mechanism using a time-varying Beta-Binomial mixture model (a mixture of two Beta-Binomial distributions) that tracks judge consensus dynamics and applies adaptive stopping via Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing. Experiments across diverse benchmarks and models demonstrate significant improvements in judgment accuracy over majority voting while maintaining computational efficiency.

In cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), it is a common practice to tune hyperparameters in ideal simulated environments to maximize cooperative performance. However, policies tuned for cooperation often fail to maintain robustness and resilience under real-world uncertainties. Building trustworthy MARL systems requires a deep understanding of robustness, which ensures stability under uncertainties, and resilience, the ability to recover from disruptions--a concept extensively studied in control systems but largely overlooked in MARL. In this paper, we present a large-scale empirical study comprising over 82,620 experiments to evaluate cooperation, robustness, and resilience in MARL across 4 real-world environments, 13 uncertainty types, and 15 hyperparameters. Our key findings are: (1) Under mild uncertainty, optimizing cooperation improves robustness and resilience, but this link weakens as perturbations intensify. Robustness and resilience also varies by algorithm and uncertainty type.

A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of certain queries while maintaining expressivity. In particular, probabilistic circuits (PCs) provide a unifying framework for many TPMs, by characterizing families of models as circuits satisfying different structural properties. Because the complexity of inference on PCs is a function of the circuit size, understanding the size requirements of different families of PCs is fundamental in mapping the trade-off between tractability and expressive efficiency. However, the study of expressive efficiency of circuits are often concerned with exact representations, which may not align with model learning, where we look to approximate the underlying data distribution closely by some distance measure.