A key question in sequence modeling with neural networks is how to represent and learn highly nonlinear and probabilistic state dynamics. Operator theory views such dynamics as linear maps on Hilbert spaces containing mean embedding vectors of distributions, offering an appealing but currently overlooked perspective. We propose a new approach to sequence modeling based on an operator-theoretic view of a hidden Markov model (HMM).

Causal mediation analysis is crucial for deconstructing complex mechanisms of action. However, in current mediation analysis, complex structures derived from causal discovery lack direct interpretation of mediation pathways, while traditional mediation analysis and effect estimation are limited by the reliance on pre-specified pathways, leading to a disconnection between structure discovery and causal mechanism understanding. Therefore, a unified framework integrating structure discovery, pathway identification, and effect estimation systematically quantifies mediation pathways under structural uncertainty, enabling automated identification and inference of mediation pathways. To this end, we propose Structure-Informed Guided Mediation Analysis (SIGMA), which guides automated mediation pathway identification through probabilistic causal structure discovery and uncertainty quantification, enabling end-to-end propagation of structural uncertainty from structure learning to effect estimation. Specifically, SIGMA employs differentiable Flow-Structural Equation Models to learn structural posteriors, generating diverse Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to quantify structural uncertainty. Based on these DAGs, we introduce the Path Stability Score to evaluate the marginal probability of pathways, identifying high-confidence mediation paths. For identified mediation pathways, we integrate Efficient Influence Functions with Bayesian model averaging to fuse within-structure estimation uncertainty and between-structure effect variation, propagating uncertainty to the final effect estimates. In synthetic data experiments, SIGMA achieves state-of-the-art performance in pathway identification accuracy and effect quantification precision under structures uncertainty, concurrent multiple pathways, and nonlinear scenarios. In real-world applications using Human Phenotype Project data, SIGMA identifies mediation effects of sleep quality on cardiovascular health through inflammatory and metabolic pathways, uncovering previously unspecified multiple mediation paths.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in enhancing the general Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, when applied to improve general CoT reasoning, existing RL frameworks often struggle to generalize beyond the training distribution. To address this, we propose NoisyGRPO, a systematic multimodal RL framework that introduces controllable noise into visual inputs for enhanced exploration and explicitly models the advantage estimation process via a Bayesian framework. Specifically, NoisyGRPO improves RL training by: (1) \textbf{Noise-Injected Exploration Policy}: Perturbing visual inputs with Gaussian noise to encourage exploration across a wider range of visual scenarios; and (2) \textbf{Bayesian Advantage Estimation}: Formulating advantage estimation as a principled Bayesian inference problem, where the injected noise level serves as a prior and the observed trajectory reward as the likelihood. This Bayesian modeling fuses both sources of information to compute a robust posterior estimate of trajectory advantage, effectively guiding MLLMs to prefer visually grounded trajectories over noisy ones. Experiments on standard CoT quality, general capability, and hallucination benchmarks demonstrate that NoisyGRPO substantially improves generalization and robustness, especially in RL settings with small-scale MLLMs such as Qwen2.5-VL

Bayesian Network models are a powerful tool to collaboratively optimize production processes in various manufacturing industries. When interacting, collaborating parties must preserve their business secrets by maintaining the confidentiality of their model structures and parameters. While most realistic industry scenarios involve hybrid settings, handling both discrete and continuous data, current state-of-the-art methods for collaborative and confidential inference only support discrete data and have high communication costs. In a centralized setting, Junction Trees enable efficient inference even in hybrid scenarios without discretizing continuous variables, but no extension for collaborative and confidential scenarios exists. To address this research gap, we introduce Hybrid CCJT, the first framework for confidential multiparty inference in hybrid domains with semi-honest, non-colluding adversaries, comprising: (i) a method to construct a strongly-rooted Junction Tree across collaborating parties through a novel construct of interface cliques; and, (ii) a protocol for confidential inference built upon multiparty computation primitives comprising a one-time alignment phase and a belief propagation system for combining the inference results across the Junction Tree cliques. Extensive evaluation on nine datasets shows that Hybrid CCJT improves the predictive accuracy of continuous target variables by 32% on average compared to the state-of-the-art, while reducing communication costs by a median 10.4x under purely discrete scenarios.

We give an algorithm for learning $O(\log n)$ juntas in polynomial-time with respect to Markov Random Fields (MRFs) in a smoothed analysis framework, where only the external field has been randomly perturbed. This is a broad generalization of the work of Kalai and Teng, who gave an algorithm that succeeded with respect to smoothed *product* distributions (i.e., MRFs whose dependency graph has no edges). Our algorithm has two phases: (1) an unsupervised structure learning phase and (2) a greedy supervised learning algorithm. This is the first example where algorithms for learning the structure of undirected graphical models have downstream applications to supervised learning.

The continuous nature of belief states in POMDPs presents significant computational challenges in learning the optimal policy. In this paper, we consider an approach that solves a Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning (PORL) problem by approximating the corresponding POMDP model into a finite-state Markov Decision Process (MDP) (called Superstate MDP). We first derive theoretical guarantees that improve upon prior work that relate the optimal value function of the transformed Superstate MDP to the optimal value function of the original POMDP. Next, we propose a policy-based learning approach with linear function approximation to learn the optimal policy for the Superstate MDP. Consequently, our approach shows that a POMDP can be approximately solved using TD-learning followed by Policy Optimization by treating it as an MDP, where the MDP state corresponds to a finite history. We show that the approximation error decreases exponentially with the length of this history. To the best of our knowledge, our finite-time bounds are the first to explicitly quantify the error introduced when applying standard TD learning to a setting where the true dynamics are not Markovian.

In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced Consistency-Optimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.

We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.

Reinforcement learning with general utilities (RLGU) offers a unifying framework to capture several problems beyond standard expected returns, including imitation learning, pure exploration, and safe RL. Despite recent fundamental advances in the theoretical analysis of policy gradient (PG) methods for standard RL and recent efforts in RLGU, the understanding of these PG algorithms and their scope of application in RLGU still remain limited. In this work, we establish global optimality guarantees of PG methods for RLGU in which the objective is a general concave utility function of the state-action occupancy measure. In the tabular setting, we provide global optimality results using a new proof technique building on recent theoretical developments on the convergence of PG methods for standard RL using gradient domination. Our proof technique opens avenues for analyzing policy parameterizations beyond the direct policy parameterization for RLGU. In addition, we provide global optimality results for large state-action space settings beyond prior work which has mostly focused on the tabular setting. In this large scale setting, we adapt PG methods by approximating occupancy measures within a function approximation class using maximum likelihood estimation. Our sample complexity only scales with the dimension induced by our approximation class instead of the size of the state-action space.

In this work, we prove that agents capable of adapting to distribution shifts must have learned the causal model of their environment even in the presence of mediation. This term describes situations where an agent's actions affect its environment, a dynamic common to most real-world settings. For example, a robot in an industrial plant might interact with tools, move through space, and transform products to complete its task. We introduce an algorithm for eliciting causal knowledge from robust agents using optimal policy oracles, with the flexibility to incorporate prior causal knowledge. We further demonstrate its effectiveness in mediated single-agent scenarios and multi-agent environments. We identify conditions under which the presence of a single robust agent is sufficient to recover the full causal model and derive optimal policies for other agents in the same environment. Finally, we show how to apply these results to sequential decision-making tasks modeled as Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs).