Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for inferring multivariate Granger causality under nonlinear dynamics based on an extension of self-explaining neural networks. This framework is more interpretable than other neural-network-based techniques for inferring Granger causality, since in addition to relational inference, it also allows detecting signs of Granger-causal effects and inspecting their variability over time. In comprehensive experiments on simulated data, we show that our framework performs on par with several powerful baseline methods at inferring Granger causality and that it achieves better performance at inferring interaction signs. The results suggest that our framework is a viable and more interpretable alternative to sparse-input neural networks for inferring Granger causality.

Predictive uncertainty estimation is an essential next step for the reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks. In this work, we focus on estimating predictive distributions for bounding box regression output with variance networks. We show that in the context of object detection, training variance networks with negative log likelihood (NLL) can lead to high entropy predictive distributions regardless of the correctness of the output mean. We propose to use the energy score as a non-local proper scoring rule and find that when used for training, the energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions than NLL. We also address the widespread use of non-proper scoring metrics for evaluating predictive distributions from deep object detectors by proposing an alternate evaluation approach founded on proper scoring rules. Using the proposed evaluation tools, we show that although variance networks can be used to produce high quality predictive distributions, adhoc approaches used by seminal object detectors for choosing regression targets during training do not provide wide enough data support for reliable variance learning. We hope that our work helps shift evaluation in probabilistic object detection to better align with predictive uncertainty evaluation in other machine learning domains. Deep object detectors are being increasingly deployed as perception components in safety critical robotics and automation applications. For reliable and safe operation, subsequent tasks using detectors as sensors require meaningful predictive uncertainty estimates correlated with their outputs. As an example, overconfident incorrect predictions can lead to non-optimal decision making in planning tasks, while underconfident correct predictions can lead to under-utilizing information in sensor fusion. This paper investigates probabilistic object detectors, extensions of standard object detectors that estimate predictive distributions for output categories and bounding boxes simultaneously. This paper aims to identify the shortcomings of recent trends followed by state-of-the-art probabilistic object detectors, and proposes to provide theoretically founded solutions for identified issues.

The information describing the conditions of a system or a person is constantly evolving and may become obsolete and contradict other information. A database, therefore, must be consistently updated upon the acquisition of new valid observations that contradict obsolete ones contained in the database. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dealing with the information obsolescence problem. Our approach aims to detect, in real-time, contradictions between observations and then identify the obsolete ones, given a representation model. Since we work within an uncertain environment characterized by the lack of information, we choose to use a Bayesian network as our representation model and propose a new approximate concept, $\epsilon$-Contradiction. The new concept is parameterised by a confidence level of having a contradiction in a set of observations. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm for detecting obsolete information. We show that the resulting obsolete information is better represented by an AND-OR tree than a simple set of observations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real elderly fall-prevention database and showcase how this tree can be used to give reliable recommendations to doctors. Our experiments give systematically and substantially very good results.

Benefiting from convenient cycling and flexible parking locations, the Dockless Public Bicycle-sharing (DL-PBS) network becomes increasingly popular in many countries. However, redundant and low-utility stations waste public urban space and maintenance costs of DL-PBS vendors. In this paper, we propose a Bicycle Station Dynamic Planning (BSDP) system to dynamically provide the optimal bicycle station layout for the DL-PBS network. The BSDP system contains four modules: bicycle drop-off location clustering, bicycle-station graph modeling, bicycle-station location prediction, and bicycle-station layout recommendation. In the bicycle drop-off location clustering module, candidate bicycle stations are clustered from each spatio-temporal subset of the large-scale cycling trajectory records. In the bicycle-station graph modeling module, a weighted digraph model is built based on the clustering results and inferior stations with low station revenue and utility are filtered. Then, graph models across time periods are combined to create a graph sequence model. In the bicycle-station location prediction module, the GGNN model is used to train the graph sequence data and dynamically predict bicycle stations in the next period. In the bicycle-station layout recommendation module, the predicted bicycle stations are fine-tuned according to the government urban management plan, which ensures that the recommended station layout is conducive to city management, vendor revenue, and user convenience. Experiments on actual DL-PBS networks verify the effectiveness, accuracy and feasibility of the proposed BSDP system.

In this paper, we consider the problem of leveraging textual descriptions to improve generalization of control policies to new scenarios. Unlike prior work in this space, we do not assume access to any form of prior knowledge connecting text and state observations, and learn both symbol grounding and control policy simultaneously. This is challenging due to a lack of concrete supervision, and incorrect groundings can result in worse performance than policies that do not use the text at all. We develop a new model, EMMA (Entity Mapper with Multi-modal Attention) which uses a multi-modal entity-conditioned attention module that allows for selective focus over relevant sentences in the manual for each entity in the environment. EMMA is end-to-end differentiable and can learn a latent grounding of entities and dynamics from text to observations using environment rewards as the only source of supervision. To empirically test our model, we design a new framework of 1320 games and collect text manuals with free-form natural language via crowd-sourcing. We demonstrate that EMMA achieves successful zero-shot generalization to unseen games with new dynamics, obtaining significantly higher rewards compared to multiple baselines. The grounding acquired by EMMA is also robust to noisy descriptions and linguistic variation.

Amortised inference enables scalable learning of sequential latent-variable models (LVMs) with the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this setting, variational posteriors are often only partially conditioned. While the true posteriors depend, e.g., on the entire sequence of observations, approximate posteriors are only informed by past observations. This mimics the Bayesian filter -- a mixture of smoothing posteriors. Yet, we show that the ELBO objective forces partially-conditioned amortised posteriors to approximate products of smoothing posteriors instead. Consequently, the learned generative model is compromised. We demonstrate these theoretical findings in three scenarios: traffic flow, handwritten digits, and aerial vehicle dynamics. Using fully-conditioned approximate posteriors, performance improves in terms of generative modelling and multi-step prediction.

Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a time series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work, we propose learning the structure simultaneously with the GNN if the graph is unknown. We cast the problem as learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing the mean performance over the graph distribution. The distribution is parameterized by a neural network so that discrete graphs can be sampled differentiably through reparameterization. Empirical evaluations show that our method is simpler, more efficient, and better performing than a recently proposed bilevel learning approach for graph structure learning, as well as a broad array of forecasting models, either deep or non-deep learning based, and graph or non-graph based.

Autonomous vehicles need to handle various traffic conditions and make safe and efficient decisions and maneuvers. However, on the one hand, a single optimization/sampling-based motion planner cannot efficiently generate safe trajectories in real time, particularly when there are many interactive vehicles near by. On the other hand, end-to-end learning methods cannot assure the safety of the outcomes. To address this challenge, we propose a hierarchical behavior planning framework with a set of low-level safe controllers and a high-level reinforcement learning algorithm (H-CtRL) as a coordinator for the low-level controllers. Safety is guaranteed by the low-level optimization/sampling-based controllers, while the high-level reinforcement learning algorithm makes H-CtRL an adaptive and efficient behavior planner. To train and test our proposed algorithm, we built a simulator that can reproduce traffic scenes using real-world datasets. The proposed H-CtRL is proved to be effective in various realistic simulation scenarios, with satisfying performance in terms of both safety and efficiency.

With the advent of deep learning, the number of works proposing new methods or improving existent ones has grown exponentially in the last years. In this scenario, "very deep" models were emerging, once they were expected to extract more intrinsic and abstract features while supporting a better performance. However, such models suffer from the gradient vanishing problem, i.e., backpropagation values become too close to zero in their shallower layers, ultimately causing learning to stagnate. Such an issue was overcome in the context of convolution neural networks by creating "shortcut connections" between layers, in a so-called deep residual learning framework. Nonetheless, a very popular deep learning technique called Deep Belief Network still suffers from gradient vanishing when dealing with discriminative tasks. Therefore, this paper proposes the Residual Deep Belief Network, which considers the information reinforcement layer-by-layer to improve the feature extraction and knowledge retaining, that support better discriminative performance. Experiments conducted over three public datasets demonstrate its robustness concerning the task of binary image classification.

Deep learning architectures have been widely fostered throughout the last years, being used in a wide range of applications, such as object recognition, image reconstruction, and signal processing. Nevertheless, such models suffer from a common problem known as overfitting, which limits the network from predicting unseen data effectively. Regularization approaches arise in an attempt to address such a shortcoming. Among them, one can refer to the well-known Dropout, which tackles the problem by randomly shutting down a set of neurons and their connections according to a certain probability. Therefore, this approach does not consider any additional knowledge to decide which units should be disconnected. In this paper, we propose an energy-based Dropout (E-Dropout) that makes conscious decisions whether a neuron should be dropped or not. Specifically, we design this regularization method by correlating neurons and the model's energy as an importance level for further applying it to energy-based models, such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs). The experimental results over several benchmark datasets revealed the proposed approach's suitability compared to the traditional Dropout and the standard RBMs.