Combination and aggregation techniques can improve forecast accuracy substantially. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where full predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes like Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the performance of different forecasters may vary not only over time but also in parts of the distribution. So one may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, and other ones perform better in predicting the distribution's tails. Consequently, we introduce a new weighting procedure that considers both varying performance across time and the distribution. We discuss pointwise online aggregation algorithms that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of a fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method, we introduce smoothing procedures for pointwise CRPS learning. The properties are confirmed and discussed using simulation studies. Additionally, we illustrate the performance in a forecasting study for carbon markets. In detail, we predict the distribution of European emission allowance prices.

Technical growths have empowered, numerous revolutions in the educational system by acquainting with technology into the classroom and by elevating the learning experience. Nowadays Web-based learning is getting much popularity. This paper describes the web-based learning and their effectiveness towards students. One of the prime factors in education or learning system is feedback; it is beneficial to learning if it must be used effectively. In this paper, we worked on how machine learning techniques like Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT) can be applied over Web-based learning, emphasis given on sentiment present in the feedback students. We also work on two types of Feature Extraction Technique (FETs) namely Count Vector (CVr) or Bag of Words) (BoW) and Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) Vector. In the research study, it is our goal for our proposed LR, SVM, NB, and DT models to classify the presence of Student Feedback Dataset (SFB) with improved accuracy with cleaned dataset and feature extraction techniques. The SFB is one of the significant concerns among the student sentimental analysis.

We investigate the local differential privacy (LDP) guarantees of a randomized privacy mechanism via its contraction properties. We first show that LDP constraints can be equivalently cast in terms of the contraction coefficient of the $E_\gamma$-divergence. We then use this equivalent formula to express LDP guarantees of privacy mechanisms in terms of contraction coefficients of arbitrary $f$-divergences. When combined with standard estimation-theoretic tools (such as Le Cam's and Fano's converse methods), this result allows us to study the trade-off between privacy and utility in several testing and minimax and Bayesian estimation problems.

This idea was further extended in (Xie et al., 2017), where Symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices are widely used sub-manifold learning for dimension reduction is used before data structures in many disciplines, e.g. in medical imaging the tangent space approximation. However, the first-order approximations (Penne et al., 2006) and computer vision as covariance region can lead to undesirable distortion, especially in descriptors (Tuzel et al., 2006; Jayasumana et al., 2015), regions far from the tangent space origin (Tuzel et al., 2008; as well as in brain-computer interface (BCI) (Congedo et al., Jayasumana et al., 2015). The mean of the SPD matrices is a 2017), etc. Endowed with an appropriate metric, SPD matrices frequently used candidate for the tangent space origin, however, form a curved Riemannian manifold. Consequently, many popular no theoretical proof exists to guarantee the mean yields the best machine learning algorithms such as linear discriminant tangent space approximation for the data (Tuzel et al., 2008).

For machine learning models to be most useful in numerous sociotechnical systems, many have argued that they must be human-interpretable. However, despite increasing interest in interpretability, there remains no firm consensus on how to measure it. This is especially true in representation learning, where interpretability research has focused on "disentanglement" measures only applicable to synthetic datasets and not grounded in human factors. We introduce a task to quantify the human-interpretability of generative model representations, where users interactively modify representations to reconstruct target instances. On synthetic datasets, we find performance on this task much more reliably differentiates entangled and disentangled models than baseline approaches. On a real dataset, we find it differentiates between representation learning methods widely believed but never shown to produce more or less interpretable models. In both cases, we ran small-scale think-aloud studies and large-scale experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk to confirm that our qualitative and quantitative results agreed.

The evolution of social media platforms have empowered everyone to access information easily. Social media users can easily share information with the rest of the world. This may sometimes encourage spread of fake news, which can result in undesirable consequences. In this work, we train models which can identify health news related to COVID-19 pandemic as real or fake. Our models achieve a high F1-score of 98.64%. Our models achieve second place on the leaderboard, tailing the first position with a very narrow margin 0.05% points.

Naïve Bayes is a classification technique that serves as the basis for implementing several classifier modeling algorithms. Naïve Bayes-based classifiers are considered some of the simplest, fastest, and easiest-to-use machine learning techniques, yet are still effective for real-world applications. Naïve Bayes is based on Bayes' theorem, formulated by 18th-century statistician Thomas Bayes. This theorem assesses the probability that an event will occur based on conditions related to the event. For example, an individual with Parkinson's disease typically has voice variations; hence such symptoms are considered related to the prediction of a Parkinson's diagnosis.

We study a novel variant of online finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes with adversarially changing loss functions and initially unknown dynamics. In each episode, the learner suffers the loss accumulated along the trajectory realized by the policy chosen for the episode, and observes aggregate bandit feedback: the trajectory is revealed along with the cumulative loss suffered, rather than the individual losses encountered along the trajectory. Our main result is a computationally efficient algorithm with $O(\sqrt{K})$ regret for this setting, where $K$ is the number of episodes. We establish this result via an efficient reduction to a novel bandit learning setting we call Distorted Linear Bandits (DLB), which is a variant of bandit linear optimization where actions chosen by the learner are adversarially distorted before they are committed. We then develop a computationally-efficient online algorithm for DLB for which we prove an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound, where $T$ is the number of time steps. Our algorithm is based on online mirror descent with a self-concordant barrier regularization that employs a novel increasing learning rate schedule.

In many cases, it is difficult to generate highly accurate models for time series data using a known parametric model structure. In response, an increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series approximately. A common assumption in training neural networks on time series is that the errors at different time steps are uncorrelated. However, due to the temporality of the data, errors are actually autocorrelated in many cases, which makes such maximum likelihood estimation inaccurate. In this paper, we propose to learn the autocorrelation coefficient jointly with the model parameters in order to adjust for autocorrelated errors. For time series regression, large-scale experiments indicate that our method outperforms the Prais-Winsten method, especially when the autocorrelation is strong. Furthermore, we broaden our method to time series forecasting and apply it with various state-of-the-art models. Results across a wide range of real-world datasets show that our method enhances performance in almost all cases.

The growing energy and performance costs of deep learning have driven the community to reduce the size of neural networks by selectively pruning components. Similarly to their biological counterparts, sparse networks generalize just as well, if not better than, the original dense networks. Sparsity can reduce the memory footprint of regular networks to fit mobile devices, as well as shorten training time for ever growing networks. In this paper, we survey prior work on sparsity in deep learning and provide an extensive tutorial of sparsification for both inference and training. We describe approaches to remove and add elements of neural networks, different training strategies to achieve model sparsity, and mechanisms to exploit sparsity in practice. Our work distills ideas from more than 300 research papers and provides guidance to practitioners who wish to utilize sparsity today, as well as to researchers whose goal is to push the frontier forward. We include the necessary background on mathematical methods in sparsification, describe phenomena such as early structure adaptation, the intricate relations between sparsity and the training process, and show techniques for achieving acceleration on real hardware. We also define a metric of pruned parameter efficiency that could serve as a baseline for comparison of different sparse networks. We close by speculating on how sparsity can improve future workloads and outline major open problems in the field.