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 Learning Graphical Models


TacticZero: Learning to Prove Theorems from Scratch with Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel approach to interactive theorem-proving (ITP) using deep reinforcement learning. Unlike previous work, our framework is able to prove theorems both end-to-end and from scratch (i.e., without relying on example proofs from human experts). We formulate the process of ITP as a Markov decision process (MDP) in which each state represents a set of potential derivation paths. The agent learns to select promising derivations as well as appropriate tactics within each derivation using deep policy gradients. This structure allows us to introduce a novel backtracking mechanism which enables the agent to efficiently discard (predicted) dead-end derivations and restart the derivation from promising alternatives. Experimental results show that the framework provides comparable performance to that of the approaches that use human experts, and that it is also capable of proving theorems that it has never seen during training. We further elaborate the role of each component of the framework using ablation studies.


Trends in Vehicle Re-identification Past, Present, and Future: A Comprehensive Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vehicle Re-identification (re-id) over surveillance camera network with non-overlapping field of view is an exciting and challenging task in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Due to its versatile applicability in metropolitan cities, it gained significant attention. Vehicle re-id matches targeted vehicle over non-overlapping views in multiple camera network. However, it becomes more difficult due to inter-class similarity, intra-class variability, viewpoint changes, and spatio-temporal uncertainty. In order to draw a detailed picture of vehicle re-id research, this paper gives a comprehensive description of the various vehicle re-id technologies, applicability, datasets, and a brief comparison of different methodologies. Our paper specifically focuses on vision-based vehicle re-id approaches, including vehicle appearance, license plate, and spatio-temporal characteristics. In addition, we explore the main challenges as well as a variety of applications in different domains. Lastly, a detailed comparison of current state-of-the-art methods performances over VeRi-776 and VehicleID datasets is summarized with future directions. We aim to facilitate future research by reviewing the work being done on vehicle re-id till to date.


Improving Artificial Teachers by Considering How People Learn and Forget

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Applications for self-regulated teaching are very popular (e.g., with Duolingo estimates of 100M downloads from Google Play at the time of writing). One of the central challenges for research on intelligent user interfaces is to identify algorithmic principles that can pick the best interventions for reliably improving human learning toward stated objectives in light of realistically obtainable data on the user. The computational problem we study is how, when given some learning materials, we can organize them into lessons and reviews such that, over time, human learning is maximized with respect to a set learning objective. Predicting the effects of teaching interventions on human learning is challenging, however. Firstly, the state of user memory is both latent (that is, not directly observable) and non-stationary (that is, evolving over time, on account of such effects as loss of activation and interference), and an intervention that is ideal for one user may be a poor choice for another user -- there are large individual-to-individual differences in forgetting and recall.


iX-BSP: Incremental Belief Space Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deciding what's next? is a fundamental problem in robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Under belief space planning (BSP), in a partially observable setting, it involves calculating the expected accumulated belief-dependent reward, where the expectation is with respect to all future measurements. Since solving this general un-approximated problem quickly becomes intractable, state of the art approaches turn to approximations while still calculating planning sessions from scratch. In this work we propose a novel paradigm, Incremental BSP (iX-BSP), based on the key insight that calculations across planning sessions are similar in nature and can be appropriately re-used. We calculate the expectation incrementally by utilizing Multiple Importance Sampling techniques for selective re-sampling and re-use of measurement from previous planning sessions. The formulation of our approach considers general distributions and accounts for data association aspects. We demonstrate how iX-BSP could benefit existing approximations of the general problem, introducing iML-BSP, which re-uses calculations across planning sessions under the common Maximum Likelihood assumption. We evaluate both methods and demonstrate a substantial reduction in computation time while statistically preserving accuracy. The evaluation includes both simulation and real-world experiments considering autonomous vision-based navigation and SLAM. As a further contribution, we introduce to iX-BSP the non-integral wildfire approximation, allowing one to trade accuracy for computational performance by averting from updating re-used beliefs when they are "close enough". We evaluate iX-BSP under wildfire demonstrating a substantial reduction in computation time while controlling the accuracy sacrifice. We also provide analytical and empirical bounds of the effect wildfire holds over the objective value.


The Variational Bayesian Inference for Network Autoregression Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and obtains a direct approximation of the posterior density. Compared to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based sampling approaches, the VB approach achieves enhanced computational efficiency without sacrificing estimation accuracy. In the simulation study conducted here, the proposed VB approach detects various types of proper active structures for dynamic network models. Compared to the alternative approach, the proposed method achieves similar or better accuracy, and its computational time is halved. In a real data analysis scenario of day-ahead natural gas flow prediction in the German gas transmission network with 51 nodes between October 2013 and September 2015, the VB approach delivers promising forecasting accuracy along with clearly detected structures in terms of dynamic dependence.


Learning Memory-Dependent Continuous Control from Demonstrations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient exploration has presented a long-standing challenge in reinforcement learning, especially when rewards are sparse. A developmental system can overcome this difficulty by learning from both demonstrations and self-exploration. However, existing methods are not applicable to most real-world robotic controlling problems because they assume that environments follow Markov decision processes (MDP); thus, they do not extend to partially observable environments where historical observations are necessary for decision making. This paper builds on the idea of replaying demonstrations for memory-dependent continuous control, by proposing a novel algorithm, Recurrent Actor-Critic with Demonstration and Experience Replay (READER). Experiments involving several memory-crucial continuous control tasks reveal significantly reduce interactions with the environment using our method with a reasonably small number of demonstration samples. The algorithm also shows better sample efficiency and learning capabilities than a baseline reinforcement learning algorithm for memory-based control from demonstrations.


Finite-Sample Analysis of Off-Policy Natural Actor-Critic Algorithm

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a paradigm where an agent aims at maximizing its cumulative reward by searching for an optimal policy, in an environment modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) (Sutton and Barto, 2018). RL algorithms have achieved tremendous successes in a wide range of applications such as self-driving cars with Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) (Lillicrap et al., 2015), and AlphaGo in the game of Go (Silver et al., 2016). The algorithms in RL can be categorized into value space methods, such as Q-learning (Watkins and Dayan, 1992), TD-learning (Sutton, 1988), and policy space methods, such as actor-critic (AC) (Konda and Tsitsiklis, 2000). Despite great empirical successes (Bahdanau et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2016), the finite-sample convergence of AC type of algorithms are not completely characterized theoretically. An AC algorithm can be thought as a generalized policy iteration (Puterman, 1995), and consists of two phases, namely actor and critic. The objective of the actor is to improve the policy, while the critic aims at evaluating the performance of a specific policy. A step of the actor can be thought as a step of Stochastic Gradient Ascent (Bottou et al., 2018) with preconditioning.


Non-approximate Inference for Collective Graphical Models on Path Graphs via Discrete Difference of Convex Algorithm

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The importance of aggregated count data, which is calculated from the data of multiple individuals, continues to increase. Collective Graphical Model (CGM) is a probabilistic approach to the analysis of aggregated data. One of the most important operations in CGM is maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference of unobserved variables under given observations. Because the MAP inference problem for general CGMs has been shown to be NP-hard, an approach that solves an approximate problem has been proposed. However, this approach has two major drawbacks. First, the quality of the solution deteriorates when the values in the count tables are small, because the approximation becomes inaccurate. Second, since continuous relaxation is applied, the integrality constraints of the output are violated. To resolve these problems, this paper proposes a new method for MAP inference for CGMs on path graphs. First we show that the MAP inference problem can be formulated as a (non-linear) minimum cost flow problem. Then, we apply Difference of Convex Algorithm (DCA), which is a general methodology to minimize a function represented as the sum of a convex function and a concave function. In our algorithm, important subroutines in DCA can be efficiently calculated by minimum convex cost flow algorithms. Experiments show that the proposed method outputs higher quality solutions than the conventional approach.


Active Privacy-utility Trade-off Against a Hypothesis Testing Adversary

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a user releasing her data containing some personal information in return of a service. We model user's personal information as two correlated random variables, one of them, called the secret variable, is to be kept private, while the other, called the useful variable, is to be disclosed for utility. We consider active sequential data release, where at each time step the user chooses from among a finite set of release mechanisms, each revealing some information about the user's personal information, i.e., the true hypotheses, albeit with different statistics. The user manages data release in an online fashion such that maximum amount of information is revealed about the latent useful variable, while the confidence for the sensitive variable is kept below a predefined level. For the utility, we consider both the probability of correct detection of the useful variable and the mutual information (MI) between the useful variable and released data. We formulate both problems as a Markov decision process (MDP), and numerically solve them by advantage actor-critic (A2C) deep reinforcement learning (RL).


Clustering Left-Censored Multivariate Time-Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unsupervised learning seeks to uncover patterns in data. However, different kinds of noise may impede the discovery of useful substructure from real-world time-series data. In this work, we focus on mitigating the interference of left-censorship in the task of clustering. We provide conditions under which clusters and left-censorship may be identified; motivated by this result, we develop a deep generative, continuous-time model of time-series data that clusters while correcting for censorship time. We demonstrate accurate, stable, and interpretable results on synthetic data that outperform several benchmarks. To showcase the utility of our framework on real-world problems, we study how left-censorship can adversely affect the task of disease phenotyping, resulting in the often incorrect assumption that longitudinal patient data are aligned by disease stage. In reality, patients at the time of diagnosis are at different stages of the disease -- both late and early due to differences in when patients seek medical care and such discrepancy can confound unsupervised learning algorithms. On two clinical datasets, our model corrects for this form of censorship and recovers known clinical subtypes.