Labeling data for modern machine learning is expensive and time-consuming. Latent variable models can be used to infer labels from weaker, easier-to-acquire sources operating on unlabeled data. Such models can also be trained using labeled data, presenting a key question: should a user invest in few labeled or many unlabeled points? We answer this via a framework centered on model misspecification in method-of-moments latent variable estimation. Our core result is a bias-variance decomposition of the generalization error, which shows that the unlabeled-only approach incurs additional bias under misspecification. We then introduce a correction that provably removes this bias in certain cases. We apply our decomposition framework to three scenarios -- well-specified, misspecified, and corrected models -- to 1) choose between labeled and unlabeled data and 2) learn from their combination. We observe theoretically and with synthetic experiments that for well-specified models, labeled points are worth a constant factor more than unlabeled points. With misspecification, however, their relative value is higher due to the additional bias but can be reduced with correction. We also apply our approach to study real-world weak supervision techniques for dataset construction.

Discrete hidden Markov models (HMM) are often applied to malware detection and classification problems. However, the continuous analog of discrete HMMs, that is, Gaussian mixture model-HMMs (GMM-HMM), are rarely considered in the field of cybersecurity. In this paper, we use GMM-HMMs for malware classification and we compare our results to those obtained using discrete HMMs. As features, we consider opcode sequences and entropy-based sequences. For our opcode features, GMM-HMMs produce results that are comparable to those obtained using discrete HMMs, whereas for our entropy-based features, GMM-HMMs generally improve significantly on the classification results that we have achieved with discrete HMMs.

One of the paradigms of learning from unlabeled data that has seen a lot of recent work in various application domains is "self-supervised learning". These methods supervise the training process with information inherent to the data without requiring human annotations, and have been applied across computer vision, natural language processing, reinforcement learning and scientific domains. Despite the popularity, they are still not very well understood--both on the theoretical and empirical front--often requiring extensive trial and error to find the right pairing of architecture and learning method. In particular, it is often hard to pin down what exactly these methods are trying to learn, and it is even harder to determine what is their statistical and algorithmic complexity. The specific family of self-supervised approaches we focus on in this work is contrastive learning, which constructs different types of tuples by utilizing certain structures in the data and trains the model to identify the types. For an example in vision, Chen et al. (2020) apply two random augmentations (e.g.

Missing values exist in nearly all clinical studies because data for a variable or question are not collected or not available. Inadequate handling of missing values can lead to biased results and loss of statistical power in analysis. Existing models usually do not consider privacy concerns or do not utilise the inherent correlations across multiple features to impute the missing values. In healthcare applications, we are usually confronted with high dimensional and sometimes small sample size datasets that need more effective augmentation or imputation techniques. Besides, imputation and augmentation processes are traditionally conducted individually. However, imputing missing values and augmenting data can significantly improve generalisation and avoid bias in machine learning models. A Bayesian approach to impute missing values and creating augmented samples in high dimensional healthcare data is proposed in this work. We propose folded Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (F-HMC) with Bayesian inference as a more practical approach to process the cross-dimensional relations by applying a random walk and Hamiltonian dynamics to adapt posterior distribution and generate large-scale samples. The proposed method is applied to a cancer symptom assessment dataset and confirmed to enrich the quality of data in precision, accuracy, recall, F1 score, and propensity metric.

We develop operators for construction of proposals in probabilistic programs, which we refer to as inference combinators. Inference combinators define a grammar over importance samplers that compose primitive operations such as application of a transition kernel and importance resampling. Proposals in these samplers can be parameterized using neural networks, which in turn can be trained by optimizing variational objectives. The result is a framework for user-programmable variational methods that are correct by construction and can be tailored to specific models. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework by implementing advanced variational methods based on amortized Gibbs sampling and annealing.

Advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) design have opened up applications as varied as surveillance, firefighting, cellular networks, and delivery applications. Additionally, due to decreases in cost, systems employing fleets of UAVs have become popular. The uniqueness of UAVs in systems creates a novel set of trajectory or path planning and coordination problems. Environments include many more points of interest (POIs) than UAVs, with obstacles and no-fly zones. This system revolves around an economic theory, in particular an auction mechanism where UAVs trade assigned POIs. We formulate the path planning problem as a multi-agent economic game, where agents can cooperate and compete for resources. We then translate the problem into a Partially Observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is solved using a reinforcement learning (RL) model deployed on each agent. As the system computes task distributions via UAV cooperation, it is highly resilient to any change in the swarm size. Our proposed network and economic game architecture can effectively coordinate the swarm as an emergent phenomenon while maintaining the swarm's operation. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are applicable to a wide-ranging set of problems such as fire fighting, security monitoring, agriculture, edge computing, 3D mapping, and network support [1]. Fire fighting problems center around tracking and finding fires, whereas security applications focus on monitoring and finding targets. On the other hand, agricultural problems center around field monitoring and data harvesting, while edge computing and network support are focused on data harvesting and load reaction. All of these problems can be abstracted to a set of partially observed points and must be traveled to in the shortest amount of time possible, and then some task must be carried out in the vicinity of this point. Swarm surveillance missions are essential in both civilian and military contexts, where solutions must be secure, reliable, and efficient.

We introduce Deep Adaptive Design (DAD), a general method for amortizing the cost of performing sequential adaptive experiments using the framework of Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). Traditional sequential BOED approaches require substantial computational time at each stage of the experiment. This makes them unsuitable for most real-world applications, where decisions must typically be made quickly. DAD addresses this restriction by learning an amortized design network upfront and then using this to rapidly run (multiple) adaptive experiments at deployment time. This network takes as input the data from previous steps, and outputs the next design using a single forward pass; these design decisions can be made in milliseconds during the live experiment. To train the network, we introduce contrastive information bounds that are suitable objectives for the sequential setting, and propose a customized network architecture that exploits key symmetries. We demonstrate that DAD successfully amortizes the process of experimental design, outperforming alternative strategies on a number of problems.

Understanding relationships between feature variables is one important way humans use to make decisions. However, state-of-the-art deep learning studies either focus on task-agnostic statistical dependency learning or do not model explicit feature dependencies during prediction. We propose a deep neural network framework, dGAP, to learn neural dependency Graph and optimize structure-Aware target Prediction simultaneously. dGAP trains towards a structure self-supervision loss and a target prediction loss jointly. Our method leads to an interpretable model that can disentangle sparse feature relationships, informing the user how relevant dependencies impact the target task. We empirically evaluate dGAP on multiple simulated and real datasets. dGAP is not only more accurate, but can also recover correct dependency structure.

Code-switching is a common phenomenon among people with diverse lingual background and is widely used on the internet for communication purposes. In this paper, we present a Recurrent Neural Network combined with the Attention Model for Language Identification in Code-Switched Data in English and low resource Roman Urdu. The attention model enables the architecture to learn the important features of the languages hence classifying the code switched data. We demonstrated our approach by comparing the results with state of the art models i.e. Hidden Markov Models, Conditional Random Field and Bidirectional LSTM. The models evaluation, using confusion matrix metrics, showed that the attention mechanism provides improved the precision and accuracy as compared to the other models.

In this paper, a multipurpose Bayesian-based method for data analysis, causal inference and prediction in the sphere of oil and gas reservoir development is considered. This allows analysing parameters of a reservoir, discovery dependencies among parameters (including cause and effects relations), checking for anomalies, prediction of expected values of missing parameters, looking for the closest analogues, and much more. The method is based on extended algorithm MixLearn@BN for structural learning of Bayesian networks. Key ideas of MixLearn@BN are following: (1) learning the network structure on homogeneous data subsets, (2) assigning a part of the structure by an expert, and (3) learning the distribution parameters on mixed data (discrete and continuous). Homogeneous data subsets are identified as various groups of reservoirs with similar features (analogues), where similarity measure may be based on several types of distances. The aim of the described technique of Bayesian network learning is to improve the quality of predictions and causal inference on such networks. Experimental studies prove that the suggested method gives a significant advantage in missing values prediction and anomalies detection accuracy. Moreover, the method was applied to the database of more than a thousand petroleum reservoirs across the globe and allowed to discover novel insights in geological parameters relationships.