Using observational data to estimate the effect of a treatment is a powerful tool for decision-making when randomized experiments are infeasible or costly. However, observational data often yields biased estimates of treatment effects, since treatment assignment can be confounded by unobserved variables. A remedy is offered by deconfounding methods that adjust for such unobserved confounders. In this paper, we develop the Sequential Deconfounder, a method that enables estimating individualized treatment effects over time in presence of unobserved confounders. This is the first deconfounding method that can be used in a general sequential setting (i.e., with one or more treatments assigned at each timestep). The Sequential Deconfounder uses a novel Gaussian process latent variable model to infer substitutes for the unobserved confounders, which are then used in conjunction with an outcome model to estimate treatment effects over time. We prove that using our method yields unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time. Using simulated and real medical data, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method in deconfounding the estimation of treatment responses over time.

$\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations distort standard posterior inference by downweighting the likelihood and introducing variational approximation errors. We show that such distortions, if tuned appropriately, reduce the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the true, but perhaps infeasible, posterior distribution when there is potential parametric model misspecification. To make this point, we derive a Bernstein-von Mises theorem showing convergence in total variation distance of $\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations to limiting Gaussian distributions. We use these distributions to evaluate the KL divergence between true and reported posteriors. We show this divergence is minimized by choosing $\alpha$ strictly smaller than one, assuming there is a vanishingly small probability of model misspecification. The optimized value becomes smaller as the the misspecification becomes more severe. The optimized KL divergence increases logarithmically in the degree of misspecification and not linearly as with the usual posterior.

Annotating the right set of data amongst all available data points is a key challenge in many machine learning applications. Batch active learning is a popular approach to address this, in which batches of unlabeled data points are selected for annotation, while an underlying learning algorithm gets subsequently updated. Increasingly larger batches are particularly appealing in settings where data can be annotated in parallel, and model training is computationally expensive. A key challenge here is scale - typical active learning methods rely on diversity techniques, which select a diverse set of data points to annotate, from an unlabeled pool. In this work, we introduce Active Data Shapley (ADS) -- a filtering layer for batch active learning that significantly increases the efficiency of active learning by pre-selecting, using a linear time computation, the highest-value points from an unlabeled dataset. Using the notion of the Shapley value of data, our method estimates the value of unlabeled data points with regards to the prediction task at hand. We show that ADS is particularly effective when the pool of unlabeled data exhibits real-world caveats: noise, heterogeneity, and domain shift. We run experiments demonstrating that when ADS is used to pre-select the highest-ranking portion of an unlabeled dataset, the efficiency of state-of-the-art batch active learning methods increases by an average factor of 6x, while preserving performance effectiveness.

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for real-world data creates the need to rely on synthetic data for the evaluation of these methods. Existing benchmarks are limited in their scope, as they either are restricted to a "static" selection of data sets, or do not allow for a granular assessment of the methods' performance when commonly made assumptions are violated. We propose a flexible and simple to use framework for generating time series data, which is aimed at developing, evaluating, and benchmarking time series causal discovery methods. In particular, the framework can be used to fine tune novel methods on vast amounts of data, without "overfitting" them to a benchmark, but rather so they perform well in real-world use cases. Using our framework, we evaluate prominent time series causal discovery methods and demonstrate a notable degradation in performance when their assumptions are invalidated and their sensitivity to choice of hyperparameters. Finally, we propose future research directions and how our framework can support both researchers and practitioners.

We propose a novel approach for solving inverse-problems with high-dimensional inputs and an expensive forward mapping. It leverages joint deep generative modelling to transfer the original problem spaces to a lower dimensional latent space. By jointly modelling input and output variables and endowing the latent with a prior distribution, the fitted probabilistic model indirectly gives access to the approximate conditional distributions of interest. Since model error and observational noise with unknown distributions are common in practice, we resort to likelihood-free inference with Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our method calls on ABC by Subset Simulation to explore the regions of the latent space with dissimilarities between generated and observed outputs below prescribed thresholds. We diagnose the diversity of approximate posterior solutions by monitoring the probability content of these regions as a function of the threshold. We further analyze the curvature of the resulting diagnostic curve to propose an adequate ABC threshold. When applied to a cross-borehole tomography example from geophysics, our approach delivers promising performance without using prior knowledge of the forward nor of the noise distribution.

In Machine Learning, the $\mathsf{SHAP}$-score is a version of the Shapley value that is used to explain the result of a learned model on a specific entity by assigning a score to every feature. While in general computing Shapley values is an intractable problem, we prove a strong positive result stating that the $\mathsf{SHAP}$-score can be computed in polynomial time over deterministic and decomposable Boolean circuits. Such circuits are studied in the field of Knowledge Compilation and generalize a wide range of Boolean circuits and binary decision diagrams classes, including binary decision trees and Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams (OBDDs). We also establish the computational limits of the SHAP-score by observing that computing it over a class of Boolean models is always polynomially as hard as the model counting problem for that class. This implies that both determinism and decomposability are essential properties for the circuits that we consider. It also implies that computing $\mathsf{SHAP}$-scores is intractable as well over the class of propositional formulas in DNF. Based on this negative result, we look for the existence of fully-polynomial randomized approximation schemes (FPRAS) for computing $\mathsf{SHAP}$-scores over such class. In contrast to the model counting problem for DNF formulas, which admits an FPRAS, we prove that no such FPRAS exists for the computation of $\mathsf{SHAP}$-scores. Surprisingly, this negative result holds even for the class of monotone formulas in DNF. These techniques can be further extended to prove another strong negative result: Under widely believed complexity assumptions, there is no polynomial-time algorithm that checks, given a monotone DNF formula $\varphi$ and features $x,y$, whether the $\mathsf{SHAP}$-score of $x$ in $\varphi$ is smaller than the $\mathsf{SHAP}$-score of $y$ in $\varphi$.

Text summarization is the process of extracting the most important information from the text and presenting it concisely in fewer sentences. Call transcript is a text that involves textual description of a phone conversation between a customer (caller) and agent(s) (customer representatives). This paper presents an indigenously developed method that combines topic modeling and sentence selection with punctuation restoration in condensing ill-punctuated or un-punctuated call transcripts to produce summaries that are more readable. Extensive testing, evaluation and comparisons have demonstrated the efficacy of this summarizer for call transcript summarization.

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible misspecification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models.

Training with Reinforcement Learning requires a reward function that is used to guide the agent towards achieving its objective. However, designing smooth and well-behaved rewards is in general not trivial and requires significant human engineering efforts. Generating rewards in self-supervised way, by inspiring the agent with an intrinsic desire to learn and explore the environment, might induce more general behaviours. In this work, we propose a curiosity-based bonus as intrinsic reward for Reinforcement Learning, computed as the Bayesian surprise with respect to a latent state variable, learnt by reconstructing fixed random features. We extensively evaluate our model by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and empirically shows state-of-the-art performance on several problems. Furthermore, experimenting on an environment with stochastic actions, our approach emerged to be the most resilient to simple stochasticity. Further visualization is available on the project webpage.(https://lbsexploration.github.io/)

Topological data analysis (TDA) studies the shape patterns of data. Persistent homology (PH) is a widely used method in TDA that summarizes homological features of data at multiple scales and stores this in persistence diagrams (PDs). As TDA is commonly used in the analysis of high dimensional data sets, a sufficiently large amount of PDs that allow performing statistical analysis is typically unavailable or requires inordinate computational resources. In this paper, we propose random persistence diagram generation (RPDG), a method that generates a sequence of random PDs from the ones produced by the data. RPDG is underpinned (i) by a parametric model based on pairwise interacting point processes for inference of persistence diagrams and (ii) by a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC) algorithm for generating samples of PDs. The parametric model combines a Dirichlet partition to capture spatial homogeneity of the location of points in a PD and a step function to capture the pairwise interaction between them. The RJ-MCMC algorithm incorporates trans-dimensional addition and removal of points and same-dimensional relocation of points across samples of PDs. The efficacy of RPDG is demonstrated via an example and a detailed comparison with other existing methods is presented.