Many controlled complex systems have an inherent network structure, such as power grids, traffic light systems, or computer networks. Automatically controlling these systems is highly challenging due to their combinatorial complexity.

The prediction of learning curves for Natural Language Processing (NLP) models enables informed decision-making to meet specific performance objectives, while reducing computational overhead and lowering the costs associated with dataset acquisition and curation. In this work, we formulate the prediction task as a multitask learning problem, where each task's data is modelled as being organized within a two-layer hierarchy. To model the shared information and dependencies across tasks and hierarchical levels, we employ latent variable multi-output Gaussian Processes, enabling to account for task correlations and supporting zero-shot prediction of learning curves (LCs). We demonstrate that this approach facilitates the development of probabilistic scaling laws at lower costs. Applying an active learning strategy, LCs can be queried to reduce predictive uncertainty and provide predictions close to ground truth scaling laws.

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been the opposite, with unstable training, poor predictive power, and subpar calibration. Building upon recent work on reparametrizations of neural networks, we propose a simple variational family that considers two independent linear subspaces of the parameter space. These represent functional changes inside and outside the support of training data. This allows us to build a fully-correlated approximate posterior reflecting the overparametrization that tunes easy-to-interpret hyperparameters. We develop scalable numerical routines that maximize the associated evidence lower bound (ELBO) and sample from the approximate posterior. Empirically, we observe state-of-the-art performance across tasks, models, and datasets compared to a wide array of baseline methods. Our results show that approximate Bayesian inference applied to deep neural networks is far from a lost cause when constructing inference mechanisms that reflect the geometry of reparametrizations.

We introduce MLE-Dojo, a Gym-style framework for systematically reinforcement learning, evaluating, and improving autonomous large language model (LLM) agents in iterative machine learning engineering (MLE) workflows. Unlike existing benchmarks that primarily rely on static datasets or single-attempt evaluations, MLE-Dojoprovides an interactive environment enabling agents to iteratively experiment, debug, and refine solutions through structured feedback loops. Built upon 200+ real-world Kaggle challenges, MLE-Dojocovers diverse, open-ended MLE tasks carefully curated to reflect realistic engineering scenarios such as data processing, architecture search, hyperparameter tuning, and code debugging. Its fully executable environment supports comprehensive agent training via both supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, facilitating iterative experimentation, realistic data sampling, and real-time outcome verification. Extensive evaluations of eight frontier LLMs reveal that while current models achieve meaningful iterative improvements, they still exhibit significant limitations in autonomously generating long-horizon solutions and efficiently resolving complex errors.

Visual reasoning in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has primarily been studied in static, fully observable settings, limiting their effectiveness in real-world environments where information is often incomplete due to occlusion or limited field of view. Humans, in contrast, actively explore and interact with their environment--moving, examining, and manipulating objects--to gather information through a closed-loop process integrating perception, reasoning, and action. Inspired by this human capability, we introduce the Active Visual Reasoning (AVR) task, extending visual reasoning to partially observable, interactive environments. AVR necessitates agents to: (1) actively acquire information via sequential physical actions, (2) integrate observations across multiple steps for coherent reasoning, and (3) dynamically adjust decisions based on evolving visual feedback. To rigorously evaluate AVR, we introduce CLEVR-AVR, a simulation benchmark featuring multi-round interactive environments designed to assess both reasoning correctness and information-gathering efficiency. We present AVR-152k, a large-scale dataset offers rich Chain-of-Thought (CoT) annotations detailing iterative reasoning for uncertainty identification, action-conditioned information gain prediction, and information-maximizing action selection, crucial for training agents in a higher-order Markov Decision Process. Building on this, we develop PhysVLM-AVR, an MLLM achieving state-of-the-art performance on CLEVR-AVR, embodied reasoning (OpenEQA, RoboVQA), and passive visual reasoning (GeoMath, Geometry30K). Our analysis also reveals that current embodied MLLMs, despite detecting information incompleteness, struggle to actively acquire and integrate new information through interaction, highlighting a fundamental gap in active reasoning capabilities.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled automated dataset labeling with minimal human supervision. While majority voting across multiple LLMs can improve label reliability by mitigating individual model biases, it incurs high computational costs due to repeated querying. In this work, we propose a novel online framework, Cost-aware Majority Voting (CaMVo), for efficient and accurate LLM-based dataset annotation. CaMVo adaptively selects a subset of LLMs for each data instance based on contextual embeddings, balancing confidence and cost without requiring pre-training or ground-truth labels. Leveraging a LinUCB-based selection mechanism and a Bayesian estimator over confidence scores, CaMVo estimates a lower bound on labeling accuracy for each LLM and aggregates responses through weighted majority voting. Our empirical evaluation on the MMLU and IMDBMovie Review datasets demonstrates that CaMVo achieves comparable or superior accuracy to full majority voting while significantly reducing labeling costs. This establishes CaMVo as a practical and robust solution for cost-efficient annotation in dynamic labeling environments.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) are making rapid progress toward general-purpose embodied agents. However, existing MLLMs do not reliably capture fine-grained links between low-level visual features and high-level textual semantics, leading to weak grounding and inaccurate perception. To overcome this challenge, we propose ESCA, a framework that contextualizes embodied agents by grounding their perception in spatial-temporal scene graphs. At its core is SGClip, a novel, open-domain, promptable foundation model for generating scene graphs that is based on CLIP. SGClip is trained on 87K+ open-domain videos using a neurosymbolic pipeline that aligns automatically generated captions with scene graphs produced by the model itself, eliminating the need for human-labeled annotations. We demonstrate that SGClip excels in both prompt-based inference and task-specific fine-tuning, achieving state-of-the-art results on scene graph generation and action localization benchmarks. ESCA with SGClip improves perception for embodied agents based on both open-source and commercial MLLMs, achieving state of-the-art performance across two embodied environments. Notably, ESCA significantly reduces agent perception errors and enables open-source models to surpass proprietary baselines.

A major challenge in training VLM agents, compared to LLM agents, is that states shift from simple texts to complex visual observations, which introduces partial observability and demands robust world modeling. We ask: can VLM agents build internal world models through explicit visual state reasoning? In this work, we architecturally enforce and reward VLM agent's reasoning process via reinforcement learning (RL), formulating the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We demonstrate that structuring agent's reasoning into StateEstimation ("what is the current state?") and TransitionModeling ("what is next?") is critical by studying five reasoning strategies. Investigating how agents should ground visual states and represent these internal beliefs, we reveal the optimal representations are task-dependent: Natural Language excels at capturing semantic relationships for general tasks, while Structured formats are essential for high-precision manipulation. These insights motivate our approach to reward shaping and credit assignment. We leverage a WorldModeling Reward to densely rewards the agent's turn-by-turn state predictions, while our Bi-Level General Advantage Estimation (Bi-Level GAE) enables turn-aware credit assignment. Through such world model reasoning, we enable a 3B model to achieve performance of 0.82 on a set of five diverse agent tasks, nearly 3 improvement over its untrained counterpart (0.21) and surpassing proprietary reasoning models like GPT-5 (0.75), Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.67) and Claude 4.5 (0.62).

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed and long-term effects, cumulative ad impacts such as reinforcement or fatigue, and customer heterogeneity. However, these effects are often not jointly addressed in previous studies. To capture these factors, we model ad bidding as a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) with delayed Poisson rewards. For efficient estimation, we propose a two-stage maximum likelihood estimator combined with data-splitting strategies, ensuring controlled estimation error based on the first-stage estimator's (in)accuracy. Building on this, we design a reinforcement learning algorithm to derive efficient personalized bidding strategies. This approach achieves a near-optimal regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dH^2\sqrt{T})$, where $d$ is the contextual dimension, $H$ is the number of rounds, and $T$ is the number of customers. Our theoretical findings are validated by simulation experiments.

A key question in sequence modeling with neural networks is how to represent and learn highly nonlinear and probabilistic state dynamics. Operator theory views such dynamics as linear maps on Hilbert spaces containing mean embedding vectors of distributions, offering an appealing but currently overlooked perspective. We propose a new approach to sequence modeling based on an operator-theoretic view of a hidden Markov model (HMM).