Learning Graphical Models
Wonder Wins Ways: Curiosity-Driven Exploration through Multi-Agent Contextual Calibration
Autonomous exploration in complex multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with sparse rewards critically depends on providing agents with effective intrinsic motivation. While artificial curiosity offers a powerful self-supervised signal, it often confuses environmental stochasticity with meaningful novelty.
On the Global Optimality of Policy Gradient Methods in General Utility Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning with general utilities (RLGU) offers a unifying framework to capture several problems beyond standard expected returns, including imitation learning, pure exploration, and safe RL. Despite recent fundamental advances in the theoretical analysis of policy gradient (PG) methods for standard RL and recent efforts in RLGU, the understanding of these PG algorithms and their scope of application in RLGU still remain limited. In this work, we establish global optimality guarantees of PG methods for RLGU in which the objective is a general concave utility function of the state-action occupancy measure. In the tabular setting, we provide global optimality results using a new proof technique building on recent theoretical developments on the convergence of PG methods for standard RL using gradient domination. Our proof technique opens avenues for analyzing policy parameterizations beyond the direct policy parameterization for RLGU. In addition, we provide global optimality results for large state-action space settings beyond prior work which has mostly focused on the tabular setting. In this large scale setting, we adapt PG methods by approximating occupancy measures within a function approximation class using maximum likelihood estimation. Our sample complexity only scales with the dimension induced by our approximation class instead of the size of the state-action space.
Uncertainty Quantification for Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Extended Fiducial Inference
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning is increasingly critical as neural networks are widely adopted to tackle complex problems across diverse scientific disciplines. For physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), a prominent model in scientific machine learning, uncertainty is typically quantified using Bayesian or dropout methods. However, both approaches suffer from a fundamental limitation: the prior distribution or dropout rate required to construct honest confidence sets cannot be determined without additional information. In this paper, we propose a novel method within the framework of extended fiducial inference (EFI) to provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for PINNs. The proposed method leverages a narrow-neck hyper-network to learn the parameters of the PINN and quantify their uncertainty based on imputed random errors in the observations. This approach overcomes the limitations of Bayesian and dropout methods, enabling the construction of honest confidence sets based solely on observed data. This advancement represents a significant breakthrough for PINNs, greatly enhancing their reliability, interpretability, and applicability to real-world scientific and engineering challenges. Moreover, it establishes a new theoretical framework for EFI, extending its application to large-scale models, eliminating the need for sparse hyper-networks, and significantly improving the automaticity and robustness of statistical inference.
Small Resamples, Sharp Guarantees: Convergence Rates for Resampled Studentized Quantile Estimators
The m-out-of-n bootstrap--proposed by Bickel et al. [1992]--approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing msubsamples (m n) without replacement from an original sample of size n; it is now routinely used for robust inference with heavy-tailed data, bandwidth selection, and other large-sample applications. Despite this broad applicability across econometrics, biostatistics, and machine-learning workflows, rigorous parameter-free guarantees for the soundness of the m-out-of-n bootstrap when estimating sample quantiles have remained elusive. This paper establishes such guarantees by analysing the estimator of sample quantiles obtained from m-out-of-n resampling of a dataset of length n. We first prove a central limit theorem for a fully data-driven version of the estimator that holds under a mild moment condition and involves no unknown nuisance parameters. We then show that the moment assumption is essentially tight by constructing a counter-example in which the CLT fails. Strengthening the assumptions slightly, we derive an Edgeworth expansion that delivers exact convergence rates and, as a corollary, a Berry-Esséen bound on the bootstrap approximation error. Finally, we illustrate the scope of our results by obtaining parameter-free asymptotic distributions for practical statistics, including the quantiles for random walk MH, and rewards of ergodic MDP's, thereby demonstrating the usefulness of our theory in modern estimation and learning tasks.
3b00db522fbd628390f41a010d0eaf1f-Paper-Conference.pdf
Explicit noise-level conditioning is widely regarded as essential for the effective operation of Graph Diffusion Models (GDMs). In this work, we challenge this assumption by investigating whether denoisers can implicitly infer noise levels directly from corrupted graph structures, potentially eliminating the need for explicit noise conditioning. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework centered on Bernoulli edge-flip corruptions and extend it to encompass more complex scenarios involving coupled structure-attribute noise. Extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world graph datasets, using models such as GDSS and DiGress, provide strong support for our theoretical findings. Notably, unconditional GDMs achieve performance comparable or superior to their conditioned counterparts, while also offering reductions in parameters (4 6%) and computation time (8 10%). Our results suggest that the high-dimensional nature of graph data itself often encodes sufficient information for the denoising process, opening avenues for simpler, more efficient GDM architectures.
PoE World Compositional World Modeling with Products of Experts
Learning how the world works is central to building AI agents that can adapt to complex environments. Traditional world models based on deep learning demand vast amounts of training data, and do not flexibly update their knowledge from sparse observations. Recent advances in program synthesis using Large Language Models (LLMs) give an alternate approach which learns world models represented as source code, supporting strong generalization from little data. To date, application of program-structured world models remains limited to natural language and grid-world domains. We introduce a novel program synthesis method for effectively modeling complex, non-gridworld domains by representing a world model as an exponentially-weighted product of programmatic experts (PoE-World) synthesized by LLMs. We show that this approach can learn complex, stochastic world models from just a few observations. We evaluate the learned world models by embedding them in a model-based planning agent, demonstrating efficient performance and generalization to unseen levels on Atari's Pong and Montezuma's Revenge.
Large Language Bayes
Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.
Solving and Learning Partial Differential Equations with Variational Q-Exponential Processes
Solving and learning partial differential equations (PDEs) lies at the core of physicsinformed machine learning. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference and finite element approaches, are rooted in domain-specific techniques and often lack scalability. Recent advances have introduced neural networks and Gaussian processes (GPs) as flexible tools for automating PDE solving and incorporating physical knowledge into learning frameworks. While GPs offer tractable predictive distributions and a principled probabilistic foundation, they may be suboptimal in capturing complex behaviors such as sharp transitions or non-smooth dynamics. To address this limitation, we propose the use of the q-exponential process (Q-EP), a recently developed generalization of GPs designed to better handle data with abrupt changes and to more accurately model derivative information. We advocate for Q-EP as a superior alternative to GPs in solving PDEs and associated inverse problems. Leveraging sparse variational inference, our method enables principled uncertainty quantification - a capability not naturally afforded by neural network-based approaches. Through a series of experiments, including the Eikonal equation, Burgers' equation, and an inverse Darcy flow problem, we demonstrate that the variational Q-EP method consistently yields more accurate solutions while providing meaningful uncertainty estimates.