Majority-SAT is the problem of determining whether an input $n$-variable formula in conjunctive normal form (CNF) has at least $2^{n-1}$ satisfying assignments. Majority-SAT and related problems have been studied extensively in various AI communities interested in the complexity of probabilistic planning and inference. Although Majority-SAT has been known to be PP-complete for over 40 years, the complexity of a natural variant has remained open: Majority-$k$SAT, where the input CNF formula is restricted to have clause width at most $k$. We prove that for every $k$, Majority-$k$SAT is in P. In fact, for any positive integer $k$ and rational $\rho \in (0,1)$ with bounded denominator, we give an algorithm that can determine whether a given $k$-CNF has at least $\rho \cdot 2^n$ satisfying assignments, in deterministic linear time (whereas the previous best-known algorithm ran in exponential time). Our algorithms have interesting positive implications for counting complexity and the complexity of inference, significantly reducing the known complexities of related problems such as E-MAJ-$k$SAT and MAJ-MAJ-$k$SAT. At the heart of our approach is an efficient method for solving threshold counting problems by extracting sunflowers found in the corresponding set system of a $k$-CNF. We also show that the tractability of Majority-$k$SAT is somewhat fragile. For the closely related GtMajority-SAT problem (where we ask whether a given formula has greater than $2^{n-1}$ satisfying assignments) which is known to be PP-complete, we show that GtMajority-$k$SAT is in P for $k\le 3$, but becomes NP-complete for $k\geq 4$. These results are counterintuitive, because the ``natural'' classifications of these problems would have been PP-completeness, and because there is a stark difference in the complexity of GtMajority-$k$SAT and Majority-$k$SAT for all $k\ge 4$.

Drought is a serious natural disaster that has a long duration and a wide range of influence. To decrease the drought-caused losses, drought prediction is the basis of making the corresponding drought prevention and disaster reduction measures. While this problem has been studied in the literature, it remains unknown whether drought can be precisely predicted or not with machine learning models using weather data. To answer this question, a real-world public dataset is leveraged in this study and different drought levels are predicted using the last 90 days of 18 meteorological indicators as the predictors. In a comprehensive approach, 16 machine learning models and 16 deep learning models are evaluated and compared. The results show no single model can achieve the best performance for all evaluation metrics simultaneously, which indicates the drought prediction problem is still challenging. As benchmarks for further studies, the code and results are publicly available in a Github repository.

On edge devices, data scarcity occurs as a common problem where transfer learning serves as a widely-suggested remedy. Nevertheless, transfer learning imposes a heavy computation burden to resource-constrained edge devices. Existing task allocation works usually assume all submitted tasks are equally important, leading to inefficient resource allocation at a task level when directly applied in Multi-task Transfer Learning (MTL). To address these issues, we first reveal that it is crucial to measure the impact of tasks on overall decision performance improvement and quantify \emph{task importance}. We then show that task allocation with task importance for MTL (TATIM) is a variant of the NP-complete Knapsack problem, where the complicated computation to solve this problem needs to be conducted repeatedly under varying contexts. To solve TATIM with high computational efficiency, we propose a Data-driven Cooperative Task Allocation (DCTA) approach. Finally, we evaluate the performance of DCTA by not only a trace-driven simulation, but also a new comprehensive real-world AIOps case study that bridges model and practice via a new architecture and main components design within the AIOps system. Extensive experiments show that our DCTA reduces 3.24 times of processing time, and saves 48.4\% energy consumption compared with the state-of-the-art when solving TATIM.

Time series forecasting is a growing domain with diverse applications. However, changes of the system behavior over time due to internal or external influences are challenging. Therefore, predictions of a previously learned fore-casting model might not be useful anymore. In this paper, we present EVent-triggered Augmented Refitting of Gaussian Process Regression for Seasonal Data (EVARS-GPR), a novel online algorithm that is able to handle sudden shifts in the target variable scale of seasonal data. For this purpose, EVARS-GPR com-bines online change point detection with a refitting of the prediction model using data augmentation for samples prior to a change point. Our experiments on sim-ulated data show that EVARS-GPR is applicable for a wide range of output scale changes. EVARS-GPR has on average a 20.8 % lower RMSE on different real-world datasets compared to methods with a similar computational resource con-sumption. Furthermore, we show that our algorithm leads to a six-fold reduction of the averaged runtime in relation to all comparison partners with a periodical refitting strategy. In summary, we present a computationally efficient online fore-casting algorithm for seasonal time series with changes of the target variable scale and demonstrate its functionality on simulated as well as real-world data. All code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/grimmlab/evars-gpr.

Relevance vector machine (RVM) is a popular sparse Bayesian learning model typically used for prediction. Recently it has been shown that improper priors assumed on multiple penalty parameters in RVM may lead to an improper posterior. Currently in the literature, the sufficient conditions for posterior propriety of RVM do not allow improper priors over the multiple penalty parameters. In this article, we propose a single penalty relevance vector machine (SPRVM) model in which multiple penalty parameters are replaced by a single penalty and we consider a semi Bayesian approach for fitting the SPRVM. The necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety of SPRVM are more liberal than those of RVM and allow for several improper priors over the penalty parameter. Additionally, we also prove the geometric ergodicity of the Gibbs sampler used to analyze the SPRVM model and hence can estimate the asymptotic standard errors associated with the Monte Carlo estimate of the means of the posterior predictive distribution. Such a Monte Carlo standard error cannot be computed in the case of RVM, since the rate of convergence of the Gibbs sampler used to analyze RVM is not known. The predictive performance of RVM and SPRVM is compared by analyzing three real life datasets.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference of target posterior distributions in machine learning is predominately conducted via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants. This is due to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo based samplers ability to suppress random-walk behaviour. As with other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces auto-correlated samples which results in high variance in the estimators, and low effective sample size rates in the generated samples. Adding antithetic sampling to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has been previously shown to produce higher effective sample rates compared to vanilla Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. In this paper, we present new algorithms which are antithetic versions of Riemannian Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The Riemannian Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm improves on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo by taking into account the local geometry of the target, which is beneficial for target densities that may exhibit strong correlations in the parameters. Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is based on quantum particles that can have random mass. Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo uses a random mass matrix which results in better sampling than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on spiky and multi-modal distributions such as jump diffusion processes. The analysis is performed on jump diffusion process using real world financial market data, as well as on real world benchmark classification tasks using Bayesian logistic regression.

This work focuses on learning useful and robust deep world models using multiple, possibly unreliable, sensors. We find that current methods do not sufficiently encourage a shared representation between modalities; this can cause poor performance on downstream tasks and over-reliance on specific sensors. As a solution, we contribute a new multi-modal deep latent state-space model, trained using a mutual information lower-bound. The key innovation is a specially-designed density ratio estimator that encourages consistency between the latent codes of each modality. We tasked our method to learn policies (in a self-supervised manner) on multi-modal Natural MuJoCo benchmarks and a challenging Table Wiping task. Experiments show our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning methods, particularly in the presence of missing observations.

Active learning promises to alleviate the massive data needs of supervised machine learning: it has successfully improved sample efficiency by an order of magnitude on traditional tasks like topic classification and object recognition. However, we uncover a striking contrast to this promise: across 5 models and 4 datasets on the task of visual question answering, a wide variety of active learning approaches fail to outperform random selection. To understand this discrepancy, we profile 8 active learning methods on a per-example basis, and identify the problem as collective outliers -- groups of examples that active learning methods prefer to acquire but models fail to learn (e.g., questions that ask about text in images or require external knowledge). Through systematic ablation experiments and qualitative visualizations, we verify that collective outliers are a general phenomenon responsible for degrading pool-based active learning. Notably, we show that active learning sample efficiency increases significantly as the number of collective outliers in the active learning pool decreases. We conclude with a discussion and prescriptive recommendations for mitigating the effects of these outliers in future work.

Avoiding unseen or partially occluded vulnerable road users (VRUs) is a major challenge for fully autonomous driving in urban scenes. However, occlusion-aware risk assessment systems have not been widely studied. Here, we propose a pedestrian emergence estimation and occlusion-aware risk assessment system for urban autonomous driving. First, the proposed system utilizes available contextual information, such as visible cars and pedestrians, to estimate pedestrian emergence probabilities in occluded regions. These probabilities are then used in a risk assessment framework, and incorporated into a longitudinal motion controller. The proposed controller is tested against several baseline controllers that recapitulate some commonly observed driving styles. The simulated test scenarios include randomly placed parked cars and pedestrians, most of whom are occluded from the ego vehicle's view and emerges randomly. The proposed controller outperformed the baselines in terms of safety and comfort measures.

Aggregating multiple sources of weak supervision (WS) can ease the data-labeling bottleneck prevalent in many machine learning applications, by replacing the tedious manual collection of ground truth labels. Current state of the art approaches that do not use any labeled training data, however, require two separate modeling steps: Learning a probabilistic latent variable model based on the WS sources -- making assumptions that rarely hold in practice -- followed by downstream model training. Importantly, the first step of modeling does not consider the performance of the downstream model. To address these caveats we propose an end-to-end approach for directly learning the downstream model by maximizing its agreement with probabilistic labels generated by reparameterizing previous probabilistic posteriors with a neural network. Our results show improved performance over prior work in terms of end model performance on downstream test sets, as well as in terms of improved robustness to dependencies among weak supervision sources.