Rational verification is the problem of determining which temporal logic properties will hold in a multi-agent system, under the assumption that agents in the system act rationally, by choosing strategies that collectively form a game-theoretic equilibrium. Previous work in this area has largely focussed on deterministic systems. In this paper, we develop the theory and algorithms for rational verification in probabilistic systems. We focus on concurrent stochastic games (CSGs), which can be used to model uncertainty and randomness in complex multi-agent environments. We study the rational verification problem for both non-cooperative games and cooperative games in the qualitative probabilistic setting. In the former case, we consider LTL properties satisfied by the Nash equilibria of the game and in the latter case LTL properties satisfied by the core. In both cases, we show that the problem is 2EXPTIME-complete, thus not harder than the much simpler verification problem of model checking LTL properties of systems modelled as Markov decision processes (MDPs).

Over the last several years, Ideas Labs has been building a suite of advanced markerless AI to analyze various aspects of human motion, from biomechanics to event tracking to a bird's eye view of an entire rink with player identification. While our technology is more sport-agonstic, we've been focusing on golf and baseball -- two stick-based sports with discrete arc of motions (sorry, Gumby). More recently, we've begun looking at martial arts with a specific relevance of our motion-based analytics of play (in this specific case of boxing, defense, stepping and attack, and threading). As in other sports, there is a broad base of literature around applying various sensor-based and motion capture-based analytics in boxing. One paper, by Khasanshin (2021), leveraged sensors applied on the wrist to analyze the speed of punches of boxes while shadow boxing in specific types of punches (jab, cross, hook, and uppercut) and type of activity (shadow boxing, single punch, or multiple punches).

Reinforcement Learning (RL) requires a large amount of exploration especially in sparse-reward settings. Imitation Learning (IL) can learn from expert demonstrations without exploration, but it never exceeds the expert's performance and is also vulnerable to distributional shift between demonstration and execution. In this paper, we radically unify RL and IL based on Free Energy Principle (FEP). FEP is a unified Bayesian theory of the brain that explains perception, action and model learning by a common fundamental principle. We present a theoretical extension of FEP and derive an algorithm in which an agent learns the world model that internalizes expert demonstrations and at the same time uses the model to infer the current and future states and actions that maximize rewards. The algorithm thus reduces exploration costs by partially imitating experts as well as maximizing its return in a seamless way, resulting in a higher performance than the suboptimal expert. Our experimental results show that this approach is promising in visual control tasks especially in sparse-reward environments.

Detecting rumors on social media is a very critical task with significant implications to the economy, public health, etc. Previous works generally capture effective features from texts and the propagation structure. However, the uncertainty caused by unreliable relations in the propagation structure is common and inevitable due to wily rumor producers and the limited collection of spread data. Most approaches neglect it and may seriously limit the learning of features. Towards this issue, this paper makes the first attempt to explore propagation uncertainty for rumor detection. Specifically, we propose a novel Edge-enhanced Bayesian Graph Convolutional Network (EBGCN) to capture robust structural features. The model adaptively rethinks the reliability of latent relations by adopting a Bayesian approach. Besides, we design a new edge-wise consistency training framework to optimize the model by enforcing consistency on relations. Experiments on three public benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed model achieves better performance than baseline methods on both rumor detection and early rumor detection tasks.

Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the maximum likelihood (ML) or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators, or by performing a multi-dimensional integration, as in the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimators. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and the Monte Carlo (MC) methodology is one feasible approach. MC methods proceed by drawing random samples, either from the desired distribution or from a simpler one, and using them to compute consistent estimators. The most important families of MC algorithms are Markov chain MC (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). On the one hand, MCMC methods draw samples from a proposal density, building then an ergodic Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the desired distribution by accepting or rejecting those candidate samples as the new state of the chain. On the other hand, IS techniques draw samples from a simple proposal density, and then assign them suitable weights that measure their quality in some appropriate way. In this paper, we perform a thorough review of MC methods for the estimation of static parameters in signal processing applications. A historical note on the development of MC schemes is also provided, followed by the basic MC method and a brief description of the rejection sampling (RS) algorithm, as well as three sections describing many of the most relevant MCMC and IS algorithms, and their combined use.

Sign language is the only medium of communication for the hearing impaired and the deaf and dumb community. Communication with the general mass is thus always a challenge for this minority group. Especially in Bangla sign language (BdSL), there are 38 alphabets with some having nearly identical symbols. As a result, in BdSL recognition, the posture of hand is an important factor in addition to visual features extracted from traditional Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). In this paper, a novel architecture "Concatenated BdSL Network" is proposed which consists of a CNN based image network and a pose estimation network. While the image network gets the visual features, the relative positions of hand keypoints are taken by the pose estimation network to obtain the additional features to deal with the complexity of the BdSL symbols. A score of 91.51% was achieved by this novel approach in test set and the effectiveness of the additional pose estimation network is suggested by the experimental results.

Bayesian networks are a class of models that are widely used for risk assessment of complex operational systems. There are now multiple approaches, as well as implemented software, that guide their construction via data learning or expert elicitation. However, a constructed Bayesian network needs to be validated before it can be used for practical risk assessment. Here, we illustrate the usage of the bnmonitor R package: the first comprehensive software for the validation of a Bayesian network. An applied data analysis using bnmonitor is carried out over a medical dataset to illustrate the use of its wide array of functions.

Software Vulnerabilities (SVs) are increasing in complexity and scale, posing great security risks to many software systems. Given the limited resources in practice, SV assessment and prioritization help practitioners devise optimal SV mitigation plans based on various SV characteristics. The surge in SV data sources and data-driven techniques such as Machine Learning and Deep Learning have taken SV assessment and prioritization to the next level. Our survey provides a taxonomy of the past research efforts and highlights the best practices for data-driven SV assessment and prioritization. We also discuss the current limitations and propose potential solutions to address such issues.

We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose an aggregate inference algorithm called collective Gaussian forward-backward algorithm, extending recently proposed Sinkhorn belief propagation algorithm to models characterized by Gaussian densities. Our algorithm enjoys convergence guarantee. In addition, it reduces to the standard Kalman filter when the observations are generated by a single individual. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through multiple experiments.

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure, alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the actual estimation of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can be also performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.