Recent years have seen a surge in research on deep interpretable neural networks with decision trees as one of the most commonly incorporated tools. There are at least three advantages of using decision trees over logistic regression classification models: they are easy to interpret since they are based on binary decisions, they can make decisions faster, and they provide a hierarchy of classes. However, one of the well-known drawbacks of decision trees, as compared to decision graphs, is that decision trees cannot reuse the decision nodes. Nevertheless, decision graphs were not commonly used in deep learning due to the lack of efficient gradient-based training techniques. In this paper, we fill this gap and provide a general paradigm based on Markov processes, which allows for efficient training of the special type of decision graphs, which we call Self-Organizing Neural Graphs (SONG). We provide an extensive theoretical study of SONG, complemented by experiments conducted on Letter, Connect4, MNIST, CIFAR, and TinyImageNet datasets, showing that our method performs on par or better than existing decision models.

Packet routing is a fundamental problem in communication networks that decides how the packets are directed from their source nodes to their destination nodes through some intermediate nodes. With the increasing complexity of network topology and highly dynamic traffic demand, conventional model-based and rule-based routing schemes show significant limitations, due to the simplified and unrealistic model assumptions, and lack of flexibility and adaption. Adding intelligence to the network control is becoming a trend and the key to achieving high-efficiency network operation. In this paper, we develop a model-free and data-driven routing strategy by leveraging reinforcement learning (RL), where routers interact with the network and learn from the experience to make some good routing configurations for the future. Considering the graph nature of the network topology, we design a multi-agent RL framework in combination with Graph Neural Network (GNN), tailored to the routing problem. Three deployment paradigms, centralized, federated, and cooperated learning, are explored respectively. Simulation results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms some existing benchmark algorithms in terms of packet transmission delay and affordable load.

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear actions for any subset of covariates and under any Bayesian LMM. Crucially, these actions inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian LMM. Rather than selecting a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, we collect the acceptable family of subsets that nearly match the predictive ability of the "best" subset. The acceptable family is summarized by its smallest member and key variable importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and in both cases demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.

We consider the problem of efficiently inferring interventional distributions in a causal Bayesian network from a finite number of observations. Let $\mathcal{P}$ be a causal model on a set $\mathbf{V}$ of observable variables on a given causal graph $G$. For sets $\mathbf{X},\mathbf{Y}\subseteq \mathbf{V}$, and setting ${\bf x}$ to $\mathbf{X}$, let $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ denote the interventional distribution on $\mathbf{Y}$ with respect to an intervention ${\bf x}$ to variables ${\bf x}$. Shpitser and Pearl (AAAI 2006), building on the work of Tian and Pearl (AAAI 2001), gave an exact characterization of the class of causal graphs for which the interventional distribution $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ can be uniquely determined. We give the first efficient version of the Shpitser-Pearl algorithm. In particular, under natural assumptions, we give a polynomial-time algorithm that on input a causal graph $G$ on observable variables $\mathbf{V}$, a setting ${\bf x}$ of a set $\mathbf{X} \subseteq \mathbf{V}$ of bounded size, outputs succinct descriptions of both an evaluator and a generator for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that is $\varepsilon$-close (in total variation distance) to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ where $Y=\mathbf{V}\setminus \mathbf{X}$, if $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ is identifiable. We also show that when $\mathbf{Y}$ is an arbitrary set, there is no efficient algorithm that outputs an evaluator of a distribution that is $\varepsilon$-close to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ unless all problems that have statistical zero-knowledge proofs, including the Graph Isomorphism problem, have efficient randomized algorithms.

We explore the reinforcement learning approach to designing controllers by extensively discussing the case of a quadcopter attitude controller. We provide all details allowing to reproduce our approach, starting with a model of the dynamics of a crazyflie 2.0 under various nominal and non-nominal conditions, including partial motor failures and wind gusts. We develop a robust form of a signal temporal logic to quantitatively evaluate the vehicle's behavior and measure the performance of controllers. The paper thoroughly describes the choices in training algorithms, neural net architecture, hyperparameters, observation space in view of the different performance metrics we have introduced. We discuss the robustness of the obtained controllers, both to partial loss of power for one rotor and to wind gusts and finish by drawing conclusions on practical controller design by reinforcement learning.

Deep learning has proven effective for various application tasks, but its applicability is limited by the reliance on annotated examples. Self-supervised learning has emerged as a promising direction to alleviate the supervision bottleneck, but existing work focuses on leveraging co-occurrences in unlabeled data for task-agnostic representation learning, as exemplified by masked language model pretraining. In this chapter, we explore task-specific self-supervision, which leverages domain knowledge to automatically annotate noisy training examples for end applications, either by introducing labeling functions for annotating individual instances, or by imposing constraints over interdependent label decisions. We first present deep probabilistic logic(DPL), which offers a unifying framework for task-specific self-supervision by composing probabilistic logic with deep learning. DPL represents unknown labels as latent variables and incorporates diverse self-supervision using probabilistic logic to train a deep neural network end-to-end using variational EM. Next, we present self-supervised self-supervision(S4), which adds to DPL the capability to learn new self-supervision automatically. Starting from an initial seed self-supervision, S4 iteratively uses the deep neural network to propose new self supervision. These are either added directly (a form of structured self-training) or verified by a human expert (as in feature-based active learning). Experiments on real-world applications such as biomedical machine reading and various text classification tasks show that task-specific self-supervision can effectively leverage domain expertise and often match the accuracy of supervised methods with a tiny fraction of human effort.

This is a tutorial and survey paper on Boltzmann Machine (BM), Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM), and Deep Belief Network (DBN). We start with the required background on probabilistic graphical models, Markov random field, Gibbs sampling, statistical physics, Ising model, and the Hopfield network. Then, we introduce the structures of BM and RBM. The conditional distributions of visible and hidden variables, Gibbs sampling in RBM for generating variables, training BM and RBM by maximum likelihood estimation, and contrastive divergence are explained. Then, we discuss different possible discrete and continuous distributions for the variables. We introduce conditional RBM and how it is trained. Finally, we explain deep belief network as a stack of RBM models. This paper on Boltzmann machines can be useful in various fields including data science, statistics, neural computation, and statistical physics.

The need to avoid confident predictions on unfamiliar data has sparked interest in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. It is widely assumed that Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are well suited for this task, as the endowed epistemic uncertainty should lead to disagreement in predictions on outliers. In this paper, we question this assumption and provide empirical evidence that proper Bayesian inference with common neural network architectures does not necessarily lead to good OOD detection. To circumvent the use of approximate inference, we start by studying the infinite-width case, where Bayesian inference can be exact considering the corresponding Gaussian process. Strikingly, the kernels induced under common architectural choices lead to uncertainties that do not reflect the underlying data generating process and are therefore unsuited for OOD detection. Finally, we study finite-width networks using HMC, and observe OOD behavior that is consistent with the infinite-width case. Overall, our study discloses fundamental problems when naively using BNNs for OOD detection and opens interesting avenues for future research.

The goal of dialogue state tracking (DST) is to predict the current dialogue state given all previous dialogue contexts. Existing approaches generally predict the dialogue state at every turn from scratch. However, the overwhelming majority of the slots in each turn should simply inherit the slot values from the previous turn. Therefore, the mechanism of treating slots equally in each turn not only is inefficient but also may lead to additional errors because of the redundant slot value generation. To address this problem, we devise the two-stage DSS-DST which consists of the Dual Slot Selector based on the current turn dialogue, and the Slot Value Generator based on the dialogue history. The Dual Slot Selector determines each slot whether to update slot value or to inherit the slot value from the previous turn from two aspects: (1) if there is a strong relationship between it and the current turn dialogue utterances; (2) if a slot value with high reliability can be obtained for it through the current turn dialogue. The slots selected to be updated are permitted to enter the Slot Value Generator to update values by a hybrid method, while the other slots directly inherit the values from the previous turn. Empirical results show that our method achieves 56.93%, 60.73%, and 58.04% joint accuracy on MultiWOZ 2.0, MultiWOZ 2.1, and MultiWOZ 2.2 datasets respectively and achieves a new state-of-the-art performance with significant improvements.

Reinforcement learning (RL) studies how an agent comes to achieve reward in an environment through interactions over time. Recent advances in machine RL have surpassed human expertise at the world's oldest board games and many classic video games, but they require vast quantities of experience to learn successfully -- none of today's algorithms account for the human ability to learn so many different tasks, so quickly. Here we propose a new approach to this challenge based on a particularly strong form of model-based RL which we call Theory-Based Reinforcement Learning, because it uses human-like intuitive theories -- rich, abstract, causal models of physical objects, intentional agents, and their interactions -- to explore and model an environment, and plan effectively to achieve task goals. We instantiate the approach in a video game playing agent called EMPA (the Exploring, Modeling, and Planning Agent), which performs Bayesian inference to learn probabilistic generative models expressed as programs for a game-engine simulator, and runs internal simulations over these models to support efficient object-based, relational exploration and heuristic planning. EMPA closely matches human learning efficiency on a suite of 90 challenging Atari-style video games, learning new games in just minutes of game play and generalizing robustly to new game situations and new levels. The model also captures fine-grained structure in people's exploration trajectories and learning dynamics. Its design and behavior suggest a way forward for building more general human-like AI systems.