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 Learning Graphical Models


Recommending Insurance products by using Users' Sentiments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In today's tech-savvy world every industry is trying to formulate methods for recommending products by combining several techniques and algorithms to form a pool that would bring forward the most enhanced models for making the predictions. Building on these lines is our paper focused on the application of sentiment analysis for recommendation in the insurance domain. We tried building the following Machine Learning models namely, Logistic Regression, Multinomial Naive Bayes, and the mighty Random Forest for analyzing the polarity of a given feedback line given by a customer. Then we used this polarity along with other attributes like Age, Gender, Locality, Income, and the list of other products already purchased by our existing customers as input for our recommendation model. Then we matched the polarity score along with the user's profiles and generated the list of insurance products to be recommended in descending order. Despite our model's simplicity and the lack of the key data sets, the results seemed very logical and realistic. So, by developing the model with more enhanced methods and with access to better and true data gathered from an insurance industry may be the sector could be very well benefitted from the amalgamation of sentiment analysis with a recommendation.


Hate Speech Detection in Roman Urdu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hate speech is a specific type of controversial content that is widely legislated as a crime that must be identified and blocked. However, due to the sheer volume and velocity of the Twitter data stream, hate speech detection cannot be performed manually. To address this issue, several studies have been conducted for hate speech detection in European languages, whereas little attention has been paid to low-resource South Asian languages, making the social media vulnerable for millions of users. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, no study has been conducted for hate speech detection in Roman Urdu text, which is widely used in the sub-continent. In this study, we have scrapped more than 90,000 tweets and manually parsed them to identify 5,000 Roman Urdu tweets. Subsequently, we have employed an iterative approach to develop guidelines and used them for generating the Hate Speech Roman Urdu 2020 corpus. The tweets in the this corpus are classified at three levels: Neutral-Hostile, Simple-Complex, and Offensive-Hate speech. As another contribution, we have used five supervised learning techniques, including a deep learning technique, to evaluate and compare their effectiveness for hate speech detection. The results show that Logistic Regression outperformed all other techniques, including deep learning techniques for the two levels of classification, by achieved an F1 score of 0.906 for distinguishing between Neutral-Hostile tweets, and 0.756 for distinguishing between Offensive-Hate speech tweets.


A variational Bayesian spatial interaction model for estimating revenue and demand at business facilities

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of estimating potential revenue or demand at business facilities and understanding its generating mechanism. This problem arises in different fields such as operation research or urban science, and more generally, it is crucial for businesses' planning and decision making. We develop a Bayesian spatial interaction model, henceforth BSIM, which provides probabilistic predictions about revenues generated by a particular business location provided their features and the potential customers' characteristics in a given region. BSIM explicitly accounts for the competition among the competitive facilities through a probability value determined by evaluating a store-specific Gaussian distribution at a given customer location. We propose a scalable variational inference framework that, while being significantly faster than competing Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference schemes, exhibits comparable performances in terms of parameters identification and uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the benefits of BSIM in various synthetic settings characterised by an increasing number of stores and customers. Finally, we construct a real-world, large spatial dataset for pub activities in London, UK, which includes over 1,500 pubs and 150,000 customer regions. We demonstrate how BSIM outperforms competing approaches on this large dataset in terms of prediction performances while providing results that are both interpretable and consistent with related indicators observed for the London region.


Shape Modeling with Spline Partitions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Shape modelling (with methods that output shapes) is a new and important task in Bayesian nonparametrics and bioinformatics. In this work, we focus on Bayesian nonparametric methods for capturing shapes by partitioning a space using curves. In related work, the classical Mondrian process is used to partition spaces recursively with axis-aligned cuts, and is widely applied in multi-dimensional and relational data. The Mondrian process outputs hyper-rectangles. Recently, the random tessellation process was introduced as a generalization of the Mondrian process, partitioning a domain with non-axis aligned cuts in an arbitrary dimensional space, and outputting polytopes. Motivated by these processes, in this work, we propose a novel parallelized Bayesian nonparametric approach to partition a domain with curves, enabling complex data-shapes to be acquired. We apply our method to HIV-1-infected human macrophage image dataset, and also simulated datasets sets to illustrate our approach. We compare to support vector machines, random forests and state-of-the-art computer vision methods such as simple linear iterative clustering super pixel image segmentation. We develop an R package that is available at \url{https://github.com/ShufeiGe/Shape-Modeling-with-Spline-Partitions}.


A Machine-Learning-Ready Dataset Prepared from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Mission

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a Python tool to generate a standard dataset from solar images that allows for user-defined selection criteria and a range of pre-processing steps. Our Python tool works with all image products from both the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) missions. We discuss a dataset produced from the SoHO mission's multi-spectral images which is free of missing or corrupt data as well as planetary transits in coronagraph images, and is temporally synced making it ready for input to a machine learning system. Machine-learning-ready images are a valuable resource for the community because they can be used, for example, for forecasting space weather parameters. We illustrate the use of this data with a 3-5 day-ahead forecast of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at Lagrange point one (L1). For this use case, we apply a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to a subset of the full SoHO dataset and compare with baseline results from a Gaussian Naive Bayes classifier.


Combating Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) Attacks: Modeling and Mitigation of Attentional Human Vulnerability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work proposes a new class of proactive attacks called the Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that exploit the attentional human vulnerability. By generating a large volume of feints, IDoS attacks deplete the cognition resources of human operators to prevent humans from identifying the real attacks hidden among feints. This work aims to formally define IDoS attacks, quantify their consequences, and develop human-assistive security technologies to mitigate the severity level and risks of IDoS attacks. To this end, we model the feint and real attacks' sequential arrivals with category labels as a semi-Markov process. The assistive technology strategically manages human attention by highlighting selective alerts periodically to prevent the distraction of other alerts. A data-driven approach is applied to evaluate human performance under different Attention Management (AM) strategies. Under a representative special case, we establish the computational equivalency between two dynamic programming representations to simplify the theoretical computation and the online learning. A case study corroborates the effectiveness of the learning framework. The numerical results illustrate how AM strategies can alleviate the severity level and the risk of IDoS attacks. Furthermore, we characterize the fundamental limits of the minimum severity level under all AM strategies and the maximum length of the inspection period to reduce the IDoS risks.


Stochastic Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present a Stochastic Deep Neural Network-based Model Reference Adaptive Control. Building on our work "Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control", we extend the controller capability by using Bayesian deep neural networks (DNN) to represent uncertainties and model non-linearities. Stochastic Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control uses a Lyapunov-based method to adapt the output-layer weights of the DNN model in real-time, while a data-driven supervised learning algorithm is used to update the inner-layers parameters. This asynchronous network update ensures boundedness and guaranteed tracking performance with a learning-based real-time feedback controller. A Bayesian approach to DNN learning helped avoid over-fitting the data and provide confidence intervals over the predictions. The controller's stochastic nature also ensured "Induced Persistency of excitation," leading to convergence of the overall system signal.


Signature Verification using Geometrical Features and Artificial Neural Network Classifier

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Signature verification has been one of the major researched areas in the field of computer vision. Many financial and legal organizations use signature verification as access control and authentication. Signature images are not rich in texture; however, they have much vital geometrical information. Through this work, we have proposed a signature verification methodology that is simple yet effective. The technique presented in this paper harnesses the geometrical features of a signature image like center, isolated points, connected components, etc., and with the power of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifier, classifies the signature image based on their geometrical features. Publicly available dataset MCYT, BHSig260 (contains the image of two regional languages Bengali and Hindi) has been used in this paper to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. We have received a lower Equal Error Rate (EER) on MCYT 100 dataset and higher accuracy on the BHSig260 dataset.


Staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian networks are a widely-used class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing symmetric conditional independence between variables of interest using the topology of the underlying graph. They can be seen as a special case of the much more general class of models called staged trees, which can represent any type of non-symmetric conditional independence. Here we formalize the relationship between these two models and introduce a minimal Bayesian network representation of the staged tree, which can be used to read conditional independences in an intuitive way. Furthermore, we define a new labeled graph, termed asymmetry-labeled directed acyclic graph, whose edges are labeled to denote the type of dependence existing between any two random variables. Various datasets are used to illustrate the methodology, highlighting the need to construct models which more flexibly encode and represent non-symmetric structures.


Sparse Continuous Distributions and Fenchel-Young Losses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exponential families are widely used in machine learning; they include many distributions in continuous and discrete domains (e.g., Gaussian, Dirichlet, Poisson, and categorical distributions via the softmax transformation). Distributions in each of these families have fixed support. In contrast, for finite domains, there has been recent works on sparse alternatives to softmax (e.g. sparsemax, $\alpha$-entmax, and fusedmax) and corresponding losses, which have varying support. This paper expands that line of work in several directions: first, it extends $\Omega$-regularized prediction maps and Fenchel-Young losses to arbitrary domains (possibly countably infinite or continuous). For linearly parametrized families, we show that minimization of Fenchel-Young losses is equivalent to moment matching of the statistics, generalizing a fundamental property of exponential families. When $\Omega$ is a Tsallis negentropy with parameter $\alpha$, we obtain "deformed exponential families," which include $\alpha$-entmax and sparsemax ($\alpha$ = 2) as particular cases. For quadratic energy functions in continuous domains, the resulting densities are $\beta$-Gaussians, an instance of elliptical distributions that contain as particular cases the Gaussian, biweight, triweight and Epanechnikov densities, and for which we derive closed-form expressions for the variance, Tsallis entropy, and Fenchel-Young loss. When $\Omega$ is a total variation or Sobolev regularizer, we obtain a continuous version of the fusedmax. Finally, we introduce continuous-domain attention mechanisms, deriving efficient gradient backpropagation algorithms for $\alpha \in \{1, 4/3, 3/2, 2\}$. Using them, we demonstrate our sparse continuous distributions for attention-based audio classification and visual question answering, showing that they allow attending to time intervals and compact regions.