This paper proposes a multi-label classification algorithm capable of continual learning by applying an Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART)-based clustering algorithm and the Bayesian approach for label probability computation. The ART-based clustering algorithm adaptively and continually generates prototype nodes corresponding to given data, and the generated nodes are used as classifiers. The label probability computation independently counts the number of label appearances for each class and calculates the Bayesian probabilities. Thus, the label probability computation can cope with an increase in the number of labels. Experimental results with synthetic and real-world multi-label datasets show that the proposed algorithm has competitive classification performance to other well-known algorithms while realizing continual learning.

The human-agent team, which is a problem in which humans and autonomous agents collaborate to achieve one task, is typical in human-AI collaboration. For effective collaboration, humans want to have an effective plan, but in realistic situations, they might have difficulty calculating the best plan due to cognitive limitations. In this case, guidance from an agent that has many computational resources may be useful. However, if an agent guides the human behavior explicitly, the human may feel that they have lost autonomy and are being controlled by the agent. We therefore investigated implicit guidance offered by means of an agent's behavior. With this type of guidance, the agent acts in a way that makes it easy for the human to find an effective plan for a collaborative task, and the human can then improve the plan. Since the human improves their plan voluntarily, he or she maintains autonomy. We modeled a collaborative agent with implicit guidance by integrating the Bayesian Theory of Mind into existing collaborative-planning algorithms and demonstrated through a behavioral experiment that implicit guidance is effective for enabling humans to maintain a balance between improving their plans and retaining autonomy.

Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems have become popular in the past two decades due to their ability to "instantly" detect patterns on real-time streams of events. However, there is a lack of methods for forecasting when a pattern might occur before such an occurrence is actually detected by a CER engine. We present a formal framework that attempts to address the issue of Complex Event Forecasting (CEF). Our framework combines two formalisms: a) symbolic automata which are used to encode complex event patterns; and b) prediction suffix trees which can provide a succinct probabilistic description of an automaton's behavior. We compare our proposed approach against state-of-the-art methods and show its advantage in terms of accuracy and efficiency. In particular, prediction suffix trees, being variable-order Markov models, have the ability to capture long-term dependencies in a stream by remembering only those past sequences that are informative enough. Our experimental results demonstrate the benefits, in terms of accuracy, of being able to capture such long-term dependencies. This is achieved by increasing the order of our model beyond what is possible with full-order Markov models that need to perform an exhaustive enumeration of all possible past sequences of a given order. We also discuss extensively how CEF solutions should be best evaluated on the quality of their forecasts.

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) postulates that biological agents perceive and interact with their environment in order to minimize a Variational Free Energy (VFE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. The inference of a policy (future control sequence) according to the FEP is known as Active Inference (AIF). The AIF literature describes multiple VFE objectives for policy planning that lead to epistemic (information-seeking) behavior. However, most objectives have limited modeling flexibility. This paper approaches epistemic behavior from a constrained Bethe Free Energy (CBFE) perspective. Crucially, variational optimization of the CBFE can be expressed in terms of message passing on free-form generative models. The key intuition behind the CBFE is that we impose a point-mass constraint on predicted outcomes, which explicitly encodes the assumption that the agent will make observations in the future. We interpret the CBFE objective in terms of its constituent behavioral drives. We then illustrate resulting behavior of the CBFE by planning and interacting with a simulated T-maze environment. Simulations for the T-maze task illustrate how the CBFE agent exhibits an epistemic drive, and actively plans ahead to account for the impact of predicted outcomes. Compared to an EFE agent, the CBFE agent incurs expected reward in significantly more environmental scenarios. We conclude that CBFE optimization by message passing suggests a general mechanism for epistemic-aware AIF in free-form generative models.

In the analysis of observational data in social sciences and businesses, it is difficult to obtain a "(quasi) single-source dataset" in which the variables of interest are simultaneously observed. Instead, multiple-source datasets are typically acquired for different individuals or units. Various methods have been proposed to investigate the relationship between the variables in each dataset, e.g., matching and latent variable modeling. It is necessary to utilize these datasets as a single-source dataset with missing variables. Existing methods assume that the datasets to be integrated are acquired from the same population or that the sampling depends on covariates. This assumption is referred to as missing at random (MAR) in terms of missingness. However, as will been shown in application studies, it is likely that this assumption does not hold in actual data analysis and the results obtained may be biased. We propose a data fusion method that does not assume that datasets are homogenous. We use a Gaussian process latent variable model for non-MAR missing data. This model assumes that the variables of concern and the probability of being missing depend on latent variables. A simulation study and real-world data analysis show that the proposed method with a missing-data mechanism and the latent Gaussian process yields valid estimates, whereas an existing method provides severely biased estimates. This is the first study in which non-random assignment to datasets is considered and resolved under resonable assumptions in data fusion problem.

Over the last several years, the field of Structured prediction in NLP has had seen huge advancements with sophisticated probabilistic graphical models, energy-based networks, and its combination with deep learning-based approaches. This survey provides a brief of major techniques in structured prediction and its applications in the NLP domains like parsing, sequence labeling, text generation, and sequence to sequence tasks. We also deep-dived into energy-based and attention-based techniques in structured prediction, identified some relevant open issues and gaps in the current state-of-the-art research, and have come up with some detailed ideas for future research in these fields.

Those designing autonomous systems that interact with humans will invariably face questions about how humans think and make decisions. Fortunately, computational cognitive science offers insight into human decision-making using tools that will be familiar to those with backgrounds in optimization and control (e.g., probability theory, statistical machine learning, and reinforcement learning). Here, we review some of this work, focusing on how cognitive science can provide forward models of human decision-making and inverse models of how humans think about others' decision-making. We highlight relevant recent developments, including approaches that synthesize blackbox and theory-driven modeling, accounts that recast heuristics and biases as forms of bounded optimality, and models that characterize human theory of mind and communication in decision-theoretic terms. In doing so, we aim to provide readers with a glimpse of the range of frameworks, methodologies, and actionable insights that lie at the intersection of cognitive science and control research.

In this position paper, we present five key principles, namely interpretability, inherent capability to explain, independent data, interactive learning, and inquisitiveness, for the development of conversational AI that, unlike the currently popular black box approaches, is transparent and accountable. At present, there is a growing concern with the use of black box statistical language models: While displaying impressive average performance, such systems are also prone to occasional spectacular failures, for which there is no clear remedy. In an effort to initiate a discussion on possible alternatives, we outline and exemplify how our five principles enable the development of conversational AI systems that are transparent and thus safer for use. We also present some of the challenges inherent in the implementation of those principles.

As a regression technique in spatial statistics, spatiotemporally varying coefficient model (STVC) is an important tool to discover nonstationary and interpretable response-covariate associations over both space and time. However, it is difficult to apply STVC for large-scale spatiotemporal analysis due to the high computational cost. To address this challenge, we summarize the spatiotemporally varying coefficients using a third-order tensor structure and propose to reformulate the spatiotemporally varying coefficient model as a special low-rank tensor regression problem. The low-rank decomposition can effectively model the global patterns of the large data with substantially reduced number of parameters. To further incorporate the local spatiotemporal dependencies among the samples, we place Gaussian process (GP) priors on the spatial and temporal factor matrices to better encode local spatial and temporal processes on each factor component. We refer to the overall framework as Bayesian Kernelized Tensor Regression (BKTR). For model inference, we develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which uses Gibbs sampling to update factor matrices and slice sampling to update kernel hyperparameters. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets, and our results confirm the superior performance and efficiency of BKTR for model estimation and parameter inference.

In Bayesian learning of Gaussian graphical model structure, it is common to restrict attention to certain classes of graphs and approximate the posterior distribution by repeatedly moving from one graph to another, using MCMC or methods such as stochastic shotgun search (SSS). I give two corrected versions of an algorithm for non-decomposable graphs and discuss random graph distributions, in particular as prior distributions. The main topic of the thesis is Bayesian structure-learning with forests or trees. Restricting attention to these graphs can be justified using theorems on random graphs. I describe how to use the Chow$\unicode{x2013}$Liu algorithm and the Matrix Tree Theorem to find the MAP forest and certain quantities in the posterior distribution on trees. I give adapted versions of MCMC and SSS for approximating the posterior distribution for forests and trees, and systems for storing these graphs so that it is easy to choose moves to neighbouring graphs. Experiments show that SSS with trees does well when the true graph is a tree or sparse graph. SSS with trees or forests does better than SSS with decomposable graphs in certain cases. Graph priors improve detection of hubs but need large ranges of probabilities. MCMC on forests fails to mix well and MCMC on trees is slower than SSS. (For a longer abstract see the thesis.)