We propose solving the general Stochastic Shortest-Path Markov Decision Process (SSP MDP) as probabilistic inference. Furthermore, we discuss online and offline methods for planning under uncertainty. In an SSP MDP, the horizon is indefinite and unknown a priori. SSP MDPs generalize finite and infinite horizon MDPs and are widely used in the artificial intelligence community. Additionally, we highlight some of the differences between solving an MDP using dynamic programming approaches widely used in the artificial intelligence community and approaches used in the active inference community.

We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based constraint includes explicit uncertainty penalty and implicit conservative regularization that pushes Q-values of out-of-distribution state-action pairs down and the in-distribution up. While the uncertainty estimation, on which the former relies on, can be loosely calibrated for complex dynamics, the latter performs slightly better. To extend the basic idea of regularization without uncertainty quantification, we propose distributionally robust offline model-based policy optimization (DROMO), which leverages the ideas in distributionally robust optimization to penalize a broader range of out-of-distribution state-action pairs beyond the standard empirical out-of-distribution Q-value minimization. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the ground-truth policy evaluation, and it can be incorporated into any existing policy gradient algorithms. We also analyze the theoretical properties of DROMO's linear and non-linear instantiations.

In this work we derive and present evolutionary reinforcement learning dynamics in which the agents are irreducibly uncertain about the current state of the environment. We evaluate the dynamics across different classes of partially observable agent-environment systems and find that irreducible environmental uncertainty can lead to better learning outcomes faster, stabilize the learning process and overcome social dilemmas. However, as expected, we do also find that partial observability may cause worse learning outcomes, for example, in the form of a catastrophic limit cycle. Compared to fully observant agents, learning with irreducible environmental uncertainty often requires more exploration and less weight on future rewards to obtain the best learning outcomes. Furthermore, we find a range of dynamical effects induced by partial observability, e.g., a critical slowing down of the learning processes between reward regimes and the separation of the learning dynamics into fast and slow directions. The presented dynamics are a practical tool for researchers in biology, social science and machine learning to systematically investigate the evolutionary effects of environmental uncertainty.

Recent breakthroughs in AI have shown the remarkable power of deep learning and deep reinforcement learning. These developments, however, have been tied to specific tasks, and progress in out-of-distribution generalization has been limited. While it is assumed that these limitations can be overcome by incorporating suitable inductive biases, the notion of inductive biases itself is often left vague and does not provide meaningful guidance. In the paper, I articulate a different learning approach where representations do not emerge from biases in a neural architecture but are learned over a given target language with a known semantics. The basic ideas are implicit in mainstream AI where representations have been encoded in languages ranging from fragments of first-order logic to probabilistic structural causal models. The challenge is to learn from data, the representations that have traditionally been crafted by hand. Generalization is then a result of the semantics of the language. The goals of the paper and talk are to make these ideas explicit, to place them in a broader context where the design of the target language is crucial, and to illustrate them in the context of learning to act and plan. For this, after a general discussion, I consider learning representations of actions, general policies, and general decompositions. In these cases, learning is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem but nothing prevents the use deep learning techniques instead. Indeed, learning representations over languages with a known semantics provides an account of what is to be learned, while learning representations with neural nets provides a complementary account of how representations can be learned. The challenge and the opportunity is to bring the two together.

Algorithmic harmonization - the automated harmonization of a musical piece given its melodic line - is a challenging problem that has garnered much interest from both music theorists and computer scientists. One genre of particular interest is the four-part Baroque chorales of J.S. Bach. Methods for algorithmic chorale harmonization typically adopt a black-box, "data-driven" approach: they do not explicitly integrate principles from music theory but rely on a complex learning model trained with a large amount of chorale data. We propose instead a new harmonization model, called BacHMMachine, which employs a "theory-driven" framework guided by music composition principles, along with a "data-driven" model for learning compositional features within this framework. As its name suggests, BacHMMachine uses a novel Hidden Markov Model based on key and chord transitions, providing a probabilistic framework for learning key modulations and chordal progressions from a given melodic line. This allows for the generation of creative, yet musically coherent chorale harmonizations; integrating compositional principles allows for a much simpler model that results in vast decreases in computational burden and greater interpretability compared to state-of-the-art algorithmic harmonization methods, at no penalty to quality of harmonization or musicality. We demonstrate this improvement via comprehensive experiments and Turing tests comparing BacHMMachine to existing methods.

Probabilistic time-series forecasting enables reliable decision making across many domains. Most forecasting problems have diverse sources of data containing multiple modalities and structures. Leveraging information as well as uncertainty from these data sources for well-calibrated and accurate forecasts is an important challenging problem. Most previous work on multi-modal learning and forecasting simply aggregate intermediate representations from each data view by simple methods of summation or concatenation and do not explicitly model uncertainty for each data-view. We propose a general probabilistic multi-view forecasting framework CAMul, that can learn representations and uncertainty from diverse data sources. It integrates the knowledge and uncertainty from each data view in a dynamic context-specific manner assigning more importance to useful views to model a well-calibrated forecast distribution. We use CAMul for multiple domains with varied sources and modalities and show that CAMul outperforms other state-of-art probabilistic forecasting models by over 25\% in accuracy and calibration.

There's no denying that the area of machine learning or artificial intelligence has grown in prominence in recent years. Machine learning is very effective for making predictions or calculating suggestions based on vast quantities of data, which is the trendiest topic in the tech sector right now. In this article, we will discuss the top 10 ML algorithms for newbies. Any other algorithm in computer programming can be connected to a machine learning method. An ML algorithm is a data-driven process for developing a production-ready ML model.

Multi-Agent reinforcement learning has received lot of attention in recent years and have applications in many different areas. Existing methods involving Centralized Training and Decentralized execution, attempts to train the agents towards learning a pattern of coordinated actions to arrive at optimal joint policy. However if some agents are stochastic to varying degrees of stochasticity, the above methods often fail to converge and provides poor coordination among agents. In this paper we show how this stochasticity of agents, which could be a result of malfunction or aging of robots, can add to the uncertainty in coordination and there contribute to unsatisfactory global coordination. In this case, the deterministic agents have to understand the behavior and limitations of the stochastic agents while arriving at optimal joint policy. Our solution, DSDF which tunes the discounted factor for the agents according to uncertainty and use the values to update the utility networks of individual agents. DSDF also helps in imparting an extent of reliability in coordination thereby granting stochastic agents tasks which are immediate and of shorter trajectory with deterministic ones taking the tasks which involve longer planning. Such an method enables joint co-ordinations of agents some of which may be partially performing and thereby can reduce or delay the investment of agent/robot replacement in many circumstances. Results on benchmark environment for different scenarios shows the efficacy of the proposed approach when compared with existing approaches.

While Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) provides transformational capabilities to the control of Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS), the black-box nature of DRL and uncertain deployment-environments of RAS pose new challenges on its dependability. Although there are many existing works imposing constraints on the DRL policy to ensure a successful completion of the mission, it is far from adequate in terms of assessing the DRL-driven RAS in a holistic way considering all dependability properties. In this paper, we formally define a set of dependability properties in temporal logic and construct a Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) to model the dynamics of risk/failures of a DRL-driven RAS interacting with the stochastic environment. We then do Probabilistic Model Checking based on the designed DTMC to verify those properties. Our experimental results show that the proposed method is effective as a holistic assessment framework, while uncovers conflicts between the properties that may need trade-offs in the training. Moreover, we find the standard DRL training cannot improve dependability properties, thus requiring bespoke optimisation objectives concerning them. Finally, our method offers a novel dependability analysis to the Sim-to-Real challenge of DRL.

Penetration testing the organised attack of a computer system in order to test existing defences has been used extensively to evaluate network security. This is a time consuming process and requires in-depth knowledge for the establishment of a strategy that resembles a real cyber-attack. This paper presents a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture with hierarchically structured agents called HA-DRL, which employs an algebraic action decomposition strategy to address the large discrete action space of an autonomous penetration testing simulator where the number of actions is exponentially increased with the complexity of the designed cybersecurity network. The proposed architecture is shown to find the optimal attacking policy faster and more stably than a conventional deep Q-learning agent which is commonly used as a method to apply artificial intelligence in automatic penetration testing.