A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions could lead to extremes in weather conditions around the world -- especially in problematic regions unable to cope with these conditions. However, the movement to a low-carbon energy supply can not happen instantaneously due to the existing fossil-fuel infrastructure and the requirement to maintain a reliable energy supply. Therefore, a low-carbon transition is required, however, the decisions various stakeholders should make over the coming decades to reduce these carbon emissions are not obvious. This is due to many long-term uncertainties, such as electricity, fuel and generation costs, human behaviour and the size of electricity demand. A well choreographed low-carbon transition is, therefore, required between all of the heterogenous actors in the system, as opposed to changing the behaviour of a single, centralised actor. The objective of this thesis is to create a novel, open-source agent-based model to better understand the manner in which the whole electricity market reacts to different factors using state-of-the-art machine learning and artificial intelligence methods. In contrast to other works, this thesis looks at both the long-term and short-term impact that different behaviours have on the electricity market by using these state-of-the-art methods.

Tracking a turbulent plume to locate its source is a complex control problem because it requires multi-sensory integration and must be robust to intermittent odors, changing wind direction, and variable plume statistics. This task is routinely performed by flying insects, often over long distances, in pursuit of food or mates. Several aspects of this remarkable behavior have been studied in detail in many experimental studies. Here, we take a complementary in silico approach, using artificial agents trained with reinforcement learning to develop an integrated understanding of the behaviors and neural computations that support plume tracking. Specifically, we use deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to train recurrent neural network (RNN) agents to locate the source of simulated turbulent plumes. Interestingly, the agents' emergent behaviors resemble those of flying insects, and the RNNs learn to represent task-relevant variables, such as head direction and time since last odor encounter. Our analyses suggest an intriguing experimentally testable hypothesis for tracking plumes in changing wind direction -- that agents follow local plume shape rather than the current wind direction. While reflexive short-memory behaviors are sufficient for tracking plumes in constant wind, longer timescales of memory are essential for tracking plumes that switch direction. At the level of neural dynamics, the RNNs' population activity is low-dimensional and organized into distinct dynamical structures, with some correspondence to behavioral modules. Our in silico approach provides key intuitions for turbulent plume tracking strategies and motivates future targeted experimental and theoretical developments.

We present an overview of the second edition of the CheckThat! Lab at CLEF 2019. The lab featured two tasks in two different languages: English and Arabic. Task 1 (English) challenged the participating systems to predict which claims in a political debate or speech should be prioritized for fact-checking. Task 2 (Arabic) asked to (A) rank a given set of Web pages with respect to a check-worthy claim based on their usefulness for fact-checking that claim, (B) classify these same Web pages according to their degree of usefulness for fact-checking the target claim, (C) identify useful passages from these pages, and (D) use the useful pages to predict the claim's factuality. CheckThat! provided a full evaluation framework, consisting of data in English (derived from fact-checking sources) and Arabic (gathered and annotated from scratch) and evaluation based on mean average precision (MAP) and normalized discounted cumulative gain (nDCG) for ranking, and F1 for classification. A total of 47 teams registered to participate in this lab, and fourteen of them actually submitted runs (compared to nine last year). The evaluation results show that the most successful approaches to Task 1 used various neural networks and logistic regression. As for Task 2, learning-to-rank was used by the highest scoring runs for subtask A, while different classifiers were used in the other subtasks. We release to the research community all datasets from the lab as well as the evaluation scripts, which should enable further research in the important tasks of check-worthiness estimation and automatic claim verification.

The rampant adoption of ML methodologies has revealed that models are usually adopted to make decisions without taking into account the uncertainties in their predictions. More critically, they can be vulnerable to adversarial examples. Thus, we believe that developing ML systems that take into account predictive uncertainties and are robust against adversarial examples is a must for critical, real-world tasks. We start with a case study in retailing. We propose a robust implementation of the Nerlove-Arrow model using a Bayesian structural time series model. Its Bayesian nature facilitates incorporating prior information reflecting the manager's views, which can be updated with relevant data. However, this case adopted classical Bayesian techniques, such as the Gibbs sampler. Nowadays, the ML landscape is pervaded with neural networks and this chapter also surveys current developments in this sub-field. Then, we tackle the problem of scaling Bayesian inference to complex models and large data regimes. In the first part, we propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. In the second part, we develop a framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic models by embedding a Markov chain sampler within a variational posterior approximation. After that, we present an alternative perspective on adversarial classification based on adversarial risk analysis, and leveraging the scalable Bayesian approaches from chapter 2. In chapter 4 we turn to reinforcement learning, introducing Threatened Markov Decision Processes, showing the benefits of accounting for adversaries in RL while the agent learns.

There are 4 main types of Machine Learning Algorithm, the choice of the algorithm depends on the data type in the use case. It is an equation which describes a line, which represents relationship between input (x) and output (y) variables. By finding specific weightage for input variables called coefficients (b). Predictive modeling is primarily concerned when minimizing system errors or making the most accurate predictions possible at the expense of expansibility. It is a graphical representation of all possible solutions to a decision based on few conditions, it uses predictive models to achieve results, it is drawn upside down with its root at the top and it splits into branches based on a condition or internal node The end of the branch that doesn't not split, is the decision leaf.

Environmental health researchers may aim to identify exposure patterns that represent sources, product use, or behaviors that give rise to mixtures of potentially harmful environmental chemical exposures. We present Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) as a novel method to identify patterns of chemical exposures when the number of patterns is not known a priori. We placed non-negative continuous priors on pattern loadings and individual scores to enhance interpretability and used a clever non-parametric sparse prior to estimate the pattern number. We further derived variational confidence intervals around estimates; this is a critical development because it quantifies the model's confidence in estimated patterns. These unique features contrast with existing pattern recognition methods employed in this field which are limited by user-specified pattern number, lack of interpretability of patterns in terms of human understanding, and lack of uncertainty quantification.

We study methods based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for estimating the value function of an infinite-horizon discounted Markov reward process (MRP). We study a regularized form of the kernel least-squares temporal difference (LSTD) estimate; in the population limit of infinite data, it corresponds to the fixed point of a projected Bellman operator defined by the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The estimator itself is obtained by computing the projected fixed point induced by a regularized version of the empirical operator; due to the underlying kernel structure, this reduces to solving a linear system involving kernel matrices. We analyze the error of this estimate in the $L^2(\mu)$-norm, where $\mu$ denotes the stationary distribution of the underlying Markov chain. Our analysis imposes no assumptions on the transition operator of the Markov chain, but rather only conditions on the reward function and population-level kernel LSTD solutions. We use empirical process theory techniques to derive a non-asymptotic upper bound on the error with explicit dependence on the eigenvalues of the associated kernel operator, as well as the instance-dependent variance of the Bellman residual error. In addition, we prove minimax lower bounds over sub-classes of MRPs, which shows that our rate is optimal in terms of the sample size $n$ and the effective horizon $H = (1 - \gamma)^{-1}$. Whereas existing worst-case theory predicts cubic scaling ($H^3$) in the effective horizon, our theory reveals that there is in fact a much wider range of scalings, depending on the kernel, the stationary distribution, and the variance of the Bellman residual error. Notably, it is only parametric and near-parametric problems that can ever achieve the worst-case cubic scaling.

This paper introduces Logical Credal Networks, an expressive probabilistic logic that generalizes many prior models that combine logic and probability. Given imprecise information represented by probability bounds and conditional probability bounds of logic formulas, this logic specifies a set of probability distributions over all interpretations. On the one hand, our approach allows propositional and first-order logic formulas with few restrictions, e.g., without requiring acyclicity. On the other hand, it has a Markov condition similar to Bayesian networks and Markov random fields that is critical in real-world applications. Having both these properties makes this logic unique, and we investigate its performance on maximum a posteriori inference tasks, including solving Mastermind games with uncertainty and detecting credit card fraud. The results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches, and its advantage lies in aggregating multiple sources of imprecise information.

An informative measurement is the most efficient way to gain information about an unknown state. We give a first-principles derivation of a general-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that returns a sequence of informative measurements by sequentially maximizing the entropy of possible measurement outcomes. This algorithm can be used by an autonomous agent or robot to decide where best to measure next, planning a path corresponding to an optimal sequence of informative measurements. This algorithm is applicable to states and controls that are continuous or discrete, and agent dynamics that is either stochastic or deterministic; including Markov decision processes. Recent results from approximate dynamic programming and reinforcement learning, including on-line approximations such as rollout and Monte Carlo tree search, allow an agent or robot to solve the measurement task in real-time. The resulting near-optimal solutions include non-myopic paths and measurement sequences that can generally outperform, sometimes substantially, commonly-used greedy heuristics such as maximizing the entropy of each measurement outcome. This is demonstrated for a global search problem, where on-line planning with an extended local search is found to reduce the number of measurements in the search by half.

In the Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) setting, a prior distribution over the unknown problem parameters -- the rewards and transitions -- is assumed, and a policy that optimizes the (posterior) expected return is sought. A common approximation, which has been recently popularized as meta-RL, is to train the agent on a sample of $N$ problem instances from the prior, with the hope that for large enough $N$, good generalization behavior to an unseen test instance will be obtained. In this work, we study generalization in Bayesian RL under the probably approximately correct (PAC) framework, using the method of algorithmic stability. Our main contribution is showing that by adding regularization, the optimal policy becomes stable in an appropriate sense. Most stability results in the literature build on strong convexity of the regularized loss -- an approach that is not suitable for RL as Markov decision processes (MDPs) are not convex. Instead, building on recent results of fast convergence rates for mirror descent in regularized MDPs, we show that regularized MDPs satisfy a certain quadratic growth criterion, which is sufficient to establish stability. This result, which may be of independent interest, allows us to study the effect of regularization on generalization in the Bayesian RL setting.