This paper managed to induce probability theory (sigma system) and possibility theory (max system) respectively from randomness and fuzziness, through which the premature theory of possibility is expected to be well founded. Such an objective is achieved by addressing three open key issues: a) the lack of clear mathematical definitions of randomness and fuzziness; b) the lack of intuitive mathematical definition of possibility; c) the lack of abstraction procedure of the axiomatic definitions of probability/possibility from their intuitive definitions. Especially, the last issue involves the question why the key axiom of "maxitivity" is adopted for possibility measure. By taking advantage of properties of the well-defined randomness and fuzziness, we derived the important conclusion that "max" is the only but un-strict disjunctive operator that is applicable across the fuzzy event space, and is an exact operator for fuzzy feature extraction that assures the max inference is an exact mechanism. It is fair to claim that the long-standing problem of lack of consensus to the foundation of possibility theory is well resolved, which would facilitate wider adoption of possibility theory in practice and promote cross prosperity of the two uncertainty theories of probability and possibility. Randomness and fuzziness are well recognized as two kinds of fundamental uncertainties of this world. It remains as an open topic on how to correctly comprehend these uncertainties and effectively handle them in practice. For modeling of random uncertainty, probability theory and the derivative subjects of statistics and stochastic process are no doubt the classic tool set. Probability theory, which satisfies the key axiom of "additivity" [18,23], has grown up to be mature, upon which nearly the whole building of information sciences is based and applications of which could be found over a great diversity of communities [22, 29,41,42,52,53].

We study the model-based reward-free reinforcement learning with linear function approximation for episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this setting, the agent works in two phases. In the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment and collects samples without the reward. In the planning phase, the agent is given a specific reward function and uses samples collected from the exploration phase to learn a good policy. We propose a new provably efficient algorithm, called UCRL-RFE under the Linear Mixture MDP assumption, where the transition probability kernel of the MDP can be parameterized by a linear function over certain feature mappings defined on the triplet of state, action, and next state. We show that to obtain an $\epsilon$-optimal policy for arbitrary reward function, UCRL-RFE needs to sample at most $\tilde O(H^5d^2\epsilon^{-2})$ episodes during the exploration phase. Here, $H$ is the length of the episode, $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping. We also propose a variant of UCRL-RFE using Bernstein-type bonus and show that it needs to sample at most $\tilde O(H^4d(H + d)\epsilon^{-2})$ to achieve an $\epsilon$-optimal policy. By constructing a special class of linear Mixture MDPs, we also prove that for any reward-free algorithm, it needs to sample at least $\tilde \Omega(H^2d\epsilon^{-2})$ episodes to obtain an $\epsilon$-optimal policy. Our upper bound matches the lower bound in terms of the dependence on $\epsilon$ and the dependence on $d$ if $H \ge d$.

Researchers have been facing a difficult problem that data generation mechanisms could be influenced by internal or external factors leading to the training and test data with quite different distributions, consequently traditional classification or regression from the training set is unable to achieve satisfying results on test data. In this paper, we address this nontrivial domain generalization problem by finding a central subspace in which domain-based covariance is minimized while the functional relationship is simultaneously maximally preserved. We propose a novel variance measurement for multiple domains so as to minimize the difference between conditional distributions across domains with solid theoretical demonstration and supports, meanwhile, the algorithm preserves the functional relationship via maximizing the variance of conditional expectations given output. Furthermore, we also provide a fast implementation that requires much less computation and smaller memory for large-scale matrix operations, suitable for not only domain generalization but also other kernel-based eigenvalue decompositions. To show the practicality of the proposed method, we compare our methods against some well-known dimension reduction and domain generalization techniques on both synthetic data and real-world applications. We show that for small-scale datasets, we are able to achieve better quantitative results indicating better generalization performance over unseen test datasets. For large-scale problems, the proposed fast implementation maintains the quantitative performance but at a substantially lower computational cost.

We analyze the complexity of learning directed acyclic graphical models from observational data in general settings without specific distributional assumptions. Our approach is information-theoretic and uses a local Markov boundary search procedure in order to recursively construct ancestral sets in the underlying graphical model. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that for certain graph ensembles, a simple forward greedy search algorithm (i.e. without a backward pruning phase) suffices to learn the Markov boundary of each node. This substantially improves the sample complexity, which we show is at most polynomial in the number of nodes. This is then applied to learn the entire graph under a novel identifiability condition that generalizes existing conditions from the literature. As a matter of independent interest, we establish finite-sample guarantees for the problem of recovering Markov boundaries from data. Moreover, we apply our results to the special case of polytrees, for which the assumptions simplify, and provide explicit conditions under which polytrees are identifiable and learnable in polynomial time. We further illustrate the performance of the algorithm, which is easy to implement, in a simulation study. Our approach is general, works for discrete or continuous distributions without distributional assumptions, and as such sheds light on the minimal assumptions required to efficiently learn the structure of directed graphical models from data.

R\'enyi's information provides a theoretical foundation for tractable and data-efficient non-parametric density estimation, based on pair-wise evaluations in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). This paper extends this framework to parametric probabilistic modeling, motivated by the fact that R\'enyi's information can be estimated in closed-form for Gaussian mixtures. Based on this special connection, a novel generative model framework called the structured generative model (SGM) is proposed that makes straightforward optimization possible, because costs are scale-invariant, avoiding high gradient variance while imposing less restrictions on absolute continuity, which is a huge advantage in parametric information theoretic optimization. The implementation employs a single neural network driven by an orthonormal input appended to a single white noise source adapted to learn an infinite Gaussian mixture model (IMoG), which provides an empirically tractable model distribution in low dimensions. To train SGM, we provide three novel variational cost functions, based on R\'enyi's second-order entropy and divergence, to implement minimization of cross-entropy, minimization of variational representations of $f$-divergence, and maximization of the evidence lower bound (conditional probability). We test the framework for estimation of mutual information and compare the results with the mutual information neural estimation (MINE), for density estimation, for conditional probability estimation in Markov models as well as for training adversarial networks. Our preliminary results show that SGM significantly improves MINE estimation in terms of data efficiency and variance, conventional and variational Gaussian mixture models, as well as the performance of generative adversarial networks.

Quantification is the research field that studies methods for counting the number of data points that belong to each class in an unlabeled sample. Traditionally, researchers in this field assume the availability of labelled observations for all classes to induce a quantification model. However, we often face situations where the number of classes is large or even unknown, or we have reliable data for a single class. When inducing a multi-class quantifier is infeasible, we are often concerned with estimates for a specific class of interest. In this context, we have proposed a novel setting known as One-class Quantification (OCQ). In contrast, Positive and Unlabeled Learning (PUL), another branch of Machine Learning, has offered solutions to OCQ, despite quantification not being the focal point of PUL. This article closes the gap between PUL and OCQ and brings both areas together under a unified view. We compare our method, Passive Aggressive Threshold (PAT), against PUL methods and show that PAT generally is the fastest and most accurate algorithm. PAT induces quantification models that can be reused to quantify different samples of data. We additionally introduce Exhaustive TIcE (ExTIcE), an improved version of the PUL algorithm Tree Induction for c Estimation (TIcE). We show that ExTIcE quantifies more accurately than PAT and the other assessed algorithms in scenarios where several negative observations are identical to the positive ones.

The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic systems. The sky images are acquired using a low-cost infrared sky imager mounted on a solar tracker. The solar forecasting algorithm is based on kernel learning methods, and uses the clear sky index as predictor and features extracted from clouds as feature vectors. The proposed solar forecasting algorithm achieved 16.45\% forecasting skill 8 minutes ahead with a resolution of 15 seconds. In contrast, previous work reached 15.4\% forecasting skill with the resolution of 1 minute. Therefore, this solar forecasting algorithm increases the performances with respect to the state-of-the-art, providing grid operators with the capability of managing the inherent uncertainties of power grids with a high penetration of photovoltaic systems.

Perceived signals in real-world scenarios are usually high-dimensional and noisy, and finding and using their representation that contains essential and sufficient information required by downstream decision-making tasks will help improve computational efficiency and generalization ability in the tasks. In this paper, we focus on partially observable environments and propose to learn a minimal set of state representations that capture sufficient information for decision-making, termed \textit{Action-Sufficient state Representations} (ASRs). We build a generative environment model for the structural relationships among variables in the system and present a principled way to characterize ASRs based on structural constraints and the goal of maximizing cumulative reward in policy learning. We then develop a structured sequential Variational Auto-Encoder to estimate the environment model and extract ASRs. Our empirical results on CarRacing and VizDoom demonstrate a clear advantage of learning and using ASRs for policy learning. Moreover, the estimated environment model and ASRs allow learning behaviors from imagined outcomes in the compact latent space to improve sample efficiency.

This paper investigates the problem of bounding counterfactual queries from an arbitrary collection of observational and experimental distributions and qualitative knowledge about the underlying data-generating model represented in the form of a causal diagram. We show that all counterfactual distributions in an arbitrary structural causal model (SCM) could be generated by a canonical family of SCMs with the same causal diagram where unobserved (exogenous) variables are discrete with a finite domain. Utilizing the canonical SCMs, we translate the problem of bounding counterfactuals into that of polynomial programming whose solution provides optimal bounds for the counterfactual query. Solving such polynomial programs is in general computationally expensive. We therefore develop effective Monte Carlo algorithms to approximate the optimal bounds from an arbitrary combination of observational and experimental data. Our algorithms are validated extensively on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Many problems in RL, such as meta RL, robust RL, and generalization in RL, can be cast as POMDPs. In theory, simply augmenting model-free RL with memory, such as recurrent neural networks, provides a general approach to solving all types of POMDPs. However, prior work has found that such recurrent model-free RL methods tend to perform worse than more specialized algorithms that are designed for specific types of POMDPs. This paper revisits this claim. We find that careful architecture and hyperparameter decisions yield a recurrent model-free implementation that performs on par with (and occasionally substantially better than) more sophisticated recent techniques in their respective domains. We also release a simple and efficient implementation of recurrent model-free RL for future work to use as a baseline for POMDPs. Code is available at https://github.com/twni2016/pomdp-baselines