The last decade has seen the rise of Adversarial Machine Learning (AML). This discipline studies how to manipulate data to fool inference engines, and how to protect those systems against such manipulation attacks. Extensive work on attacks against regression and classification systems is available, while little attention has been paid to attacks against time series forecasting systems. In this paper, we propose a decision analysis based attacking strategy that could be utilized against Bayesian forecasting dynamic models.

Parameter learning for high-dimensional, partially observed, and nonlinear stochastic processes is a methodological challenge. Spatiotemporal disease transmission systems provide examples of such processes giving rise to open inference problems. We propose the iterated block particle filter (IBPF) algorithm for learning high-dimensional parameters over graphical state space models with general state spaces, measures, transition densities and graph structure. Theoretical performance guarantees are obtained on beating the curse of dimensionality (COD), algorithm convergence, and likelihood maximization. Experiments on a highly nonlinear and non-Gaussian spatiotemporal model for measles transmission reveal that the iterated ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (Li et al. (2020)) is ineffective and the iterated filtering algorithm (Ionides et al. (2015)) suffers from the COD, while our IBPF algorithm beats COD consistently across various experiments with different metrics.

We propose Predictive Permutation Feature Selection (PPFS), a novel wrapper-based feature selection method based on the concept of Markov Blanket (MB). Unlike previous MB methods, PPFS is a universal feature selection technique as it can work for both classification as well as regression tasks on datasets containing categorical and/or continuous features. We propose Predictive Permutation Independence (PPI), a new Conditional Independence (CI) test, which enables PPFS to be categorised as a wrapper feature selection method. This is in contrast to current filter based MB feature selection techniques that are unable to harness the advancements in supervised algorithms such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM). The PPI test is based on the knockoff framework and utilizes supervised algorithms to measure the association between an individual or a set of features and the target variable. We also propose a novel MB aggregation step that addresses the issue of sample inefficiency. Empirical evaluations and comparisons on a large number of datasets demonstrate that PPFS outperforms state-of-the-art Markov blanket discovery algorithms as well as, well-known wrapper methods. We also provide a sketch of the proof of correctness of our method. Implementation of this work is available at \url{https://github.com/atif-hassan/PyImpetus}

This is a course on Machine Learning, Deep Learning (Tensorflow PyTorch) and Bayesian Learning (yes all 3 topics in one place!!!). We start off by analysing data using pandas, and implementing some algorithms from scratch using Numpy. These algorithms include linear regression, Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees. We start off using TensorFlow for our Deep Learning lessons. This will include Feed Forward Networks, Convolutional Neural Nets (CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Nets (RNNs).

We model here an epistemic bias we call \textit{interpretive blindness} (IB). IB is a special problem for learning from testimony, in which one acquires information only from text or conversation. We show that IB follows from a co-dependence between background beliefs and interpretation in a Bayesian setting and the nature of contemporary testimony. We argue that a particular characteristic contemporary testimony, \textit{argumentative completeness}, can preclude learning in hierarchical Bayesian settings, even in the presence of constraints that are designed to promote good epistemic practices.

Mobile edge computing (MEC) is a prominent computing paradigm which expands the application fields of wireless communication. Due to the limitation of the capacities of user equipments and MEC servers, edge caching (EC) optimization is crucial to the effective utilization of the caching resources in MEC-enabled wireless networks. However, the dynamics and complexities of content popularities over space and time as well as the privacy preservation of users pose significant challenges to EC optimization. In this paper, a privacy-preserving distributed deep deterministic policy gradient (P2D3PG) algorithm is proposed to maximize the cache hit rates of devices in the MEC networks. Specifically, we consider the fact that content popularities are dynamic, complicated and unobservable, and formulate the maximization of cache hit rates on devices as distributed problems under the constraints of privacy preservation. In particular, we convert the distributed optimizations into distributed model-free Markov decision process problems and then introduce a privacy-preserving federated learning method for popularity prediction. Subsequently, a P2D3PG algorithm is developed based on distributed reinforcement learning to solve the distributed problems. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in improving EC hit rate over the baseline methods while preserving user privacy.

Autonomous robots can benefit greatly from human-provided semantic characterizations of uncertain task environments and states. However, the development of integrated strategies which let robots model, communicate, and act on such soft data remains challenging. Here, a framework is presented for active semantic sensing and planning in human-robot teams which addresses these gaps by formally combining the benefits of online sampling-based POMDP policies, multi-modal semantic interaction, and Bayesian data fusion. This approach lets humans opportunistically impose model structure and extend the range of semantic soft data in uncertain environments by sketching and labeling arbitrary landmarks across the environment. Dynamic updating of the environment while searching for a mobile target allows robotic agents to actively query humans for novel and relevant semantic data, thereby improving beliefs of unknown environments and target states for improved online planning. Target search simulations show significant improvements in time and belief state estimates required for interception versus conventional planning based solely on robotic sensing. Human subject studies demonstrate a average doubling in dynamic target capture rate compared to the lone robot case, employing reasoning over a range of user characteristics and interaction modalities. Video of interaction can be found at https://youtu.be/Eh-82ZJ1o4I.

In realistic applications of object search, robots will need to locate target objects in complex environments while coping with unreliable sensors, especially for small or hard-to-detect objects. In such settings, correlational information can be valuable for planning efficiently: when looking for a fork, the robot could start by locating the easier-to-detect refrigerator, since forks would probably be found nearby. Previous approaches to object search with correlational information typically resort to ad-hoc or greedy search strategies. In this paper, we propose the Correlational Object Search POMDP (COS-POMDP), which can be solved to produce search strategies that use correlational information. COS-POMDPs contain a correlation-based observation model that allows us to avoid the exponential blow-up of maintaining a joint belief about all objects, while preserving the optimal solution to this naive, exponential POMDP formulation. We propose a hierarchical planning algorithm to scale up COS-POMDP for practical domains. We conduct experiments using AI2-THOR, a realistic simulator of household environments, as well as YOLOv5, a widely-used object detector. Our results show that, particularly for hard-to-detect objects, such as scrub brush and remote control, our method offers the most robust performance compared to baselines that ignore correlations as well as a greedy, next-best view approach.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms have made promising progress in recent years by leveraging the centralized training and decentralized execution (CTDE) paradigm. However, existing MARL algorithms still suffer from the sample inefficiency problem. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach, called state-based episodic memory (SEM), to improve sample efficiency in MARL. SEM adopts episodic memory (EM) to supervise the centralized training procedure of CTDE in MARL. To the best of our knowledge, SEM is the first work to introduce EM into MARL. We can theoretically prove that, when using for MARL, SEM has lower space complexity and time complexity than state and action based EM (SAEM), which is originally proposed for single-agent reinforcement learning. Experimental results on StarCraft multi-agent challenge (SMAC) show that introducing episodic memory into MARL can improve sample efficiency and SEM can reduce storage cost and time cost compared with SAEM.

Statistical-Relational Model Discovery aims to find statistically relevant patterns in relational data. For example, a relational dependency pattern may stipulate that a user's gender is associated with the gender of their friends. As with propositional (non-relational) graphical models, the major scalability bottleneck for model discovery is computing instantiation counts: the number of times a relational pattern is instantiated in a database. Previous work on propositional learning utilized pre-counting or post-counting to solve this task. This paper takes a detailed look at the memory and speed trade-offs between pre-counting and post-counting strategies for relational learning. A pre-counting approach computes and caches instantiation counts for a large set of relational patterns before model search. A post-counting approach computes an instantiation count dynamically on-demand for each candidate pattern generated during the model search. We describe a novel hybrid approach, tailored to relational data, that achieves a sweet spot with pre-counting for patterns involving positive relationships (e.g. pairs of users who are friends) and post-counting for patterns involving negative relationships (e.g. pairs of users who are not friends). Our hybrid approach scales model discovery to millions of data facts.