Crowdsourcing systems enable us to collect noisy labels from crowd workers. A graphical model representing local dependencies between workers and tasks provides a principled way of reasoning over the true labels from the noisy answers. However, one needs a predictive model working on unseen data directly from crowdsourced datasets instead of the true labels in many cases. To infer true labels and learn a predictive model simultaneously, we propose a new data-generating process, where a neural network generates the true labels from task features. We devise an EM framework alternating variational inference and deep learning to infer the true labels and to update the neural network, respectively. Experimental results with synthetic and real datasets show a belief-propagation-based EM algorithm is robust to i) corruption in task features, ii) multi-modal or mismatched worker prior, and iii) few spammers submitting noises to many tasks.

Fast, highly accurate, and reliable inference of the sky origin of gravitational waves would enable real-time multi-messenger astronomy. Current Bayesian inference methodologies, although highly accurate and reliable, are slow. Deep learning models have shown themselves to be accurate and extremely fast for inference tasks on gravitational waves, but their output is inherently questionable due to the blackbox nature of neural networks. In this work, we join Bayesian inference and deep learning by applying importance sampling on an approximate posterior generated by a multi-headed convolutional neural network. The neural network parametrizes Von Mises-Fisher and Gaussian distributions for the sky coordinates and two masses for given simulated gravitational wave injections in the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We generate skymaps for unseen gravitational-wave events that highly resemble predictions generated using Bayesian inference in a few minutes. Furthermore, we can detect poor predictions from the neural network, and quickly flag them.

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. We incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators' attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in timely and accurately dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the alerts' observable features. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker's dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

This paper is to consider the problems of estimation and recognition from the perspective of sigma-max inference (probability-possibility inference), with a focus on discovering whether some of the unknown quantities involved could be more faithfully modeled as fuzzy uncertainty. Two related key issues are addressed: 1) the random-fuzzy dual interpretation of unknown quantity being estimated; 2) the principle of selecting sigma-max operator for practical problems, such as estimation and recognition. Our perspective, conceived from definitions of randomness and fuzziness, is that continuous unknown quantity involved in estimation with inaccurate prior should be more appropriately modeled as randomness and handled by sigma inference; whereas discrete unknown quantity involved in recognition with insufficient (and inaccurate) prior could be better modeled as fuzziness and handled by max inference. The philosophy was demonstrated by an updated version of the well-known interacting multiple model (IMM) filter, for which the jump Markovian System is reformulated as a hybrid uncertainty system, with continuous state evolution modeled as usual as model-conditioned stochastic system and discrete mode transitions modeled as fuzzy system by a possibility (instead of probability) transition matrix, and hypotheses mixing is conducted by using the operation of "max" instead of "sigma". For our example of maneuvering target tracking using simulated data from both a short-range fire control radar and a long-range surveillance radar, the updated IMM filter shows significant improvement over the classic IMM filter, due to its peculiarity of hard decision of system model and a faster response to the transition of discrete mode.

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are widely used to represent causal relationships among random variables in many application domains. This paper studies a special class of non-Gaussian DAG models, where the conditional variance of each node given its parents is a quadratic function of its conditional mean. Such a class of non-Gaussian DAG models are fairly flexible and admit many popular distributions as special cases, including Poisson, Binomial, Geometric, Exponential, and Gamma. To facilitate learning, we introduce a novel concept of topological layers, and develop an efficient DAG learning algorithm. It first reconstructs the topological layers in a hierarchical fashion and then recoveries the directed edges between nodes in different layers, which requires much less computational cost than most existing algorithms in literature. Its advantage is also demonstrated in a number of simulated examples, as well as its applications to two real-life datasets, including an NBA player statistics data and a cosmetic sales data collected by Alibaba.

The issue of how the explicit introduction of information impacts traditional economic analysis of, for example, competitive equilibrium or monopolistic behaviour has been investigated fruitfully within the paradigm of asymmetric information. The success of explaining non-perfectly competitive outcomes has however led to a neglect of the issue of how information itself can be considered valuable. A single Value of Information (VoI) literature does not exits and the issue spans over diverse economic fields and even other disciplines that aim to discriminate signal from noise. Of course any investigation of a Value of Information needs a specific reference frame in which such a "value" may occur.

Acyclic model, often depicted as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), has been widely employed to represent directional causal relations among collected nodes. In this article, we propose an efficient method to learn linear non-Gaussian DAG in high dimensional cases, where the noises can be of any continuous non-Gaussian distribution. This is in sharp contrast to most existing DAG learning methods assuming Gaussian noise with additional variance assumptions to attain exact DAG recovery. The proposed method leverages a novel concept of topological layer to facilitate the DAG learning. Particularly, we show that the topological layers can be exactly reconstructed in a bottom-up fashion, and the parent-child relations among nodes in each layer can also be consistently established. More importantly, the proposed method does not require the faithfulness or parental faithfulness assumption which has been widely assumed in the literature of DAG learning. Its advantage is also supported by the numerical comparison against some popular competitors in various simulated examples as well as a real application on the global spread of COVID-19.

For this reason, existing methods for inferring context-specific Bayesian networks have favored breaking datasets into subsamples, limiting statistical power and resolution, and preventing the use of multidimensional and latent contexts. To overcome this challenge, we propose NOTEARS-optimized Mixtures of Archetypal DAGs (NOTMAD). NOTMAD models context-specific Bayesian networks as the output of a function which learns to mix archetypal networks according to sample context. The archetypal networks are estimated jointly with the context-specific networks and do not require any prior knowledge. We encode the acyclicity constraint as a smooth regularization loss which is back-propagated to the mixing function; in this way, NOTMAD shares information between context-specific acyclic graphs, enabling the estimation of Bayesian network structures and parameters at even single-sample resolution. We demonstrate the utility of NOTMAD and sample-specific network inference through analysis and experiments, including patient-specific gene expression networks which correspond to morphological variation in cancer.

As a YouTube channel grows, each video can potentially collect enormous amounts of comments that provide direct feedback from the viewers. These comments are a major means of understanding viewer expectations and improving channel engagement. However, the comments only represent a general collection of user opinions about the channel and the content. Many comments are poorly constructed, trivial, and have improper spellings and grammatical errors. As a result, it is a tedious job to identify the comments that best interest the content creators. In this paper, we extract and classify the raw comments into different categories based on both sentiment and sentence types that will help YouTubers find relevant comments for growing their viewership. Existing studies have focused either on sentiment analysis (positive and negative) or classification of sub-types within the same sentence types (e.g., types of questions) on a text corpus. These have limited application on non-traditional text corpus like YouTube comments. We address this challenge of text extraction and classification from YouTube comments using well-known statistical measures and machine learning models. We evaluate each combination of statistical measure and the machine learning model using cross validation and $F_1$ scores. The results show that our approach that incorporates conventional methods performs well on the classification task, validating its potential in assisting content creators increase viewer engagement on their channel.

This paper considers the problem of estimating high dimensional Laplacian constrained precision matrices by minimizing Stein's loss. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of this estimator, that boils down to checking whether a certain data dependent graph is connected. We also prove consistency in the high dimensional setting under the symmetryzed Stein loss. We show that the error rate does not depend on the graph sparsity, or other type of structure, and that Laplacian constraints are sufficient for high dimensional consistency. Our proofs exploit properties of graph Laplacians, and a characterization of the proposed estimator based on effective graph resistances. We validate our theoretical claims with numerical experiments.